Question 100 market efficiency, technical analysis, joint hypothesis problem
A company selling charting and technical analysis software claims that independent academic studies have shown that its software makes significantly positive abnormal returns. Assuming the claim is true, which statement(s) are correct?
(I) Weak form market efficiency is broken.
(II) Semi-strong form market efficiency is broken.
(III) Strong form market efficiency is broken.
(IV) The asset pricing model used to measure the abnormal returns (such as the CAPM) had mis-specification error so the returns may not be abnormal but rather fair for the level of risk.
Select the most correct response:
In mid 2009 the listed mining company Rio Tinto announced a 21-for-40 renounceable rights issue. Below is the chronology of events:
- 04/06/2009. Share price opens at $69.00 and closes at $66.90.
- 05/06/2009. 21-for-40 rights issue announced at a subscription price of $28.29.
- 16/06/2009. Last day that shares trade cum-rights. Share price opens at $76.40 and closes at $75.50.
- 17/06/2009. Shares trade ex-rights. Rights trading commences.
All things remaining equal, what would you expect Rio Tinto's stock price to open at on the first day that it trades ex-rights (17/6/2009)? Ignore the time value of money since time is negligibly short. Also ignore taxes.
You're considering making an investment in a particular company. They have preference shares, ordinary shares, senior debt and junior debt.
Which is the safest investment? Which has the highest expected returns?
The saying "buy low, sell high" suggests that investors should make a:
Question 554 inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows
On his 20th birthday, a man makes a resolution. He will put $30 cash under his bed at the end of every month starting from today. His birthday today is the first day of the month. So the first addition to his cash stash will be in one month. He will write in his will that when he dies the cash under the bed should be given to charity.
If the man lives for another 60 years, how much money will be under his bed if he dies just after making his last (720th) addition?
Also, what will be the real value of that cash in today's prices if inflation is expected to 2.5% pa? Assume that the inflation rate is an effective annual rate and is not expected to change.
The answers are given in the same order, the amount of money under his bed in 60 years, and the real value of that money in today's prices.
The efficient markets hypothesis (EMH) and no-arbitrage pricing theory are most closely related to which of the following concepts?
Alice, Bob, Chris and Delta are traders in the futures market. The following trades occur over a single day in a newly-opened equity index future that matures in one year which the exchange just made available.
1. Alice buys a future from Bob.
2. Chris buys a future from Delta.
3. Bob buys a future from Chris.
These were the only trades made in this equity index future. What was the trading volume and what is the open interest?
Question 876 foreign exchange rate, forward foreign exchange rate, cross currency interest rate parity
Suppose the yield curve in the USA and Germany is flat and the:
- USD federal funds rate at the Federal Reserve is 1% pa;
- EUR deposit facility at the European Central Bank is -0.4% pa (note the negative sign);
- Spot EUR exchange rate is 1 USD per EUR;
- One year forward EUR exchange rate is 1.011 USD per EUR.
You suspect that there’s an arbitrage opportunity. Which one of the following statements about the potential arbitrage opportunity is NOT correct?