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Question 100 market efficiency, technical analysis, joint hypothesis problem

A company selling charting and technical analysis software claims that independent academic studies have shown that its software makes significantly positive abnormal returns. Assuming the claim is true, which statement(s) are correct?

(I) Weak form market efficiency is broken.

(II) Semi-strong form market efficiency is broken.

(III) Strong form market efficiency is broken.

(IV) The asset pricing model used to measure the abnormal returns (such as the CAPM) had mis-specification error so the returns may not be abnormal but rather fair for the level of risk.

Select the most correct response:

Question 321 foreign exchange rate, monetary policy, American and European terms

The market expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to increase the policy rate by 25 basis points at their next meeting.

Then unexpectedly, the RBA announce that they will increase the policy rate by 50 basis points due to high future GDP and inflation forecasts.

What do you expect to happen to Australia's exchange rate in the short term? The Australian dollar will:

Question 412 enterprise value, no explanation

A large proportion of a levered firm's assets is cash held at the bank. The firm is financed with half equity and half debt.

Which of the following statements about this firm's enterprise value (EV) and total asset value (V) is NOT correct?

Question 428 takeover

Question 489 NPV, IRR, pay back period, DDM

A firm is considering a business project which costs $11m now and is expected to pay a constant $1m at the end of every year forever.

Assume that the initial $11m cost is funded using the firm's existing cash so no new equity or debt will be raised. The cost of capital is 10% pa.

Which of the following statements about net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR) and payback period is NOT correct?

Question 556 portfolio risk, portfolio return, standard deviation

An investor wants to make a portfolio of two stocks A and B with a target expected portfolio return of 12% pa.

Stock A has an expected return of 10% pa and a standard deviation of 20% pa.
Stock B has an expected return of 15% pa and a standard deviation of 30% pa.

The correlation coefficient between stock A and B's expected returns is 70%.

What will be the annual standard deviation of the portfolio with this 12% pa target return?

Question 721 mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate

Fred owns some Commonwealth Bank (CBA) shares. He has calculated CBA’s monthly returns for each month in the past 20 years using this formula:

###r_\text{t monthly}=\ln⁡ \left( \dfrac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} \right)###

He then took the arithmetic average and found it to be 1% per month using this formula:

###\bar{r}_\text{monthly}= \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( r_\text{t monthly} \right)} }{T} =0.01=1\% \text{ per month}###

He also found the standard deviation of these monthly returns which was 5% per month:

###\sigma_\text{monthly} = \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( \left( r_\text{t monthly} - \bar{r}_\text{monthly} \right)^2 \right)} }{T} =0.05=5\%\text{ per month}###

Which of the below statements about Fred’s CBA shares is NOT correct? Assume that the past historical average return is the true population average of future expected returns.

(a) The returns ##r_\text{t monthly}## are continuously compounded monthly returns and are likely to be normally distributed, so the mean, median and mode of these continuously compounded returns are all equal to 1% per month.

(b) The annualised average continuously compounded return is ##\bar{r}_\text{cc annual}=12×0.01=0.1=12\%\text{ pa}##. The annualised standard deviation is ##\sigma_\text{annual} = \sqrt{12}×0.05=0.173205081=17.32\%\text{ pa}##.

(c) Over the next 10 years the mean, median and mode continuously compounded 10 year returns will all equal ##0.01 \times 12 \times 10 = 120\%##.

(d) Over the next 10 years the expected mean gross discrete 10 year return is ##e^{(0.01 - 0.05^2/2)×12×10} = 2.857651118## and the median gross discrete 10 year return is ##e^{(0.01 + 0.05^2/2)×12×10}=3.857425531##.

(e) If the current price of the CBA shares is $75, then in 10 years they’re expected to have a mean value of ##75×e^{(0.01 + 0.05^2/2)×12×10} = 289.3069148## and a median value of ##75×e^{0.01×12×10}=249.0087692##.

Question 767 idiom, corporate financial decision theory, no explanation

The sayings "Don't cry over spilt milk", "Don't regret the things that you can't change" and "What's done is done" are most closely related to which financial concept?

Question 809 Markowitz portfolio theory, CAPM, Jensens alpha, CML, systematic and idiosyncratic risk

A graph of assets’ expected returns ##(\mu)## versus standard deviations ##(\sigma)## is given in the graph below. The CML is the capital market line.

Which of the following statements about this graph, Markowitz portfolio theory and the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) theory is NOT correct?

(a) The market portfolio M has systematic risk only. It’s a fully diversified portfolio comprised of all individual risky assets. The market portfolio is usually assumed to be the equity index, such as the ASX200 in Australia or the S&P500 in the US.

(b) The risk free security has no risk at all. Government bonds are usually assumed to be the risk-free security.

(c) Portfolio combinations of the market portfolio and risk free security will plot on the CML and will have systematic risk only. They will have no diversifiable risk.

(d) The portfolios on the CML with a return above ##r_f## have maximum return for any given level of risk.

(e) The individual assets and portfolios with returns less than the risk free rate are over-priced, have a negative Jensen’s alpha and should be sold.

Question 931 confidence interval, normal distribution

A stock's returns are normally distributed with a mean of 10% pa and a standard deviation of 20 percentage points pa. What is the 90% confidence interval of returns over the next year? Note that the Z-statistic corresponding to a one-tail:

90% normal probability density function is 1.282.
95% normal probability density function is 1.645.
97.5% normal probability density function is 1.960.

The 90% confidence interval of annual returns is between: