Fight Finance

Question 105  NPV, risk, market efficiency

A person is thinking about borrowing $100 from the bank at 7% pa and investing it in shares with an expected return of 10% pa. One year later the person intends to sell the shares and pay back the loan in full. Both the loan and the shares are fairly priced.

What is the Net Present Value (NPV) of this one year investment? Note that you are asked to find the present value (##V_0##), not the value in one year (##V_1##).

(a) $10

(b) $3

(c) $2.8037

(d) $2.7273

(e) $0

Question 165  DDM, PE ratio, payout ratio

For certain shares, the forward-looking Price-Earnings Ratio (##P_0/EPS_1##) is equal to the inverse of the share's total expected return (##1/r_\text{total}##). For what shares is this true?

Use the general accounting definition of 'payout ratio' which is dividends per share (DPS) divided by earnings per share (EPS) and assume that all cash flows, earnings and rates are real rather than nominal.

A company's forward-looking PE ratio will be the inverse of its total expected return on equity when it has a:

(a) 100% payout ratio and high expected growth in earnings and dividends.

(b) 100% payout ratio and negative expected growth in earnings and dividends.

(c) 100% payout ratio and no expected growth in earnings or dividends.

(d) 0% payout ratio and no expected growth in earnings or dividends.

(e) 0% payout ratio and negative expected growth in earnings and dividends.

Question 375  interest tax shield, CFFA

One formula for calculating a levered firm's free cash flow (FFCF, or CFFA) is to use net operating profit after tax (NOPAT).

###\begin{aligned} FFCF &= NOPAT + Depr - CapEx -\Delta NWC \\ &= (Rev - COGS - Depr - FC)(1-t_c) + Depr - CapEx -\Delta NWC \\ \end{aligned} \\###

Does this annual FFCF or the annual interest tax shield?

Question 533  NPV, no explanation

You have $100,000 in the bank. The bank pays interest at 10% pa, given as an effective annual rate.

You wish to consume twice as much now (t=0) as in one year (t=1) and have nothing left in the bank at the end.

How much can you consume at time zero and one? The answer choices are given in the same order.

(a) $52,380.95,   $52,380.95

(b) $62,500,   $31,250

(c) $66,666.67,   $33,333.33

(d) $68,750,   $34,375

(e) $70,967.74,   $35,483.87

Question 549

An Apple iPhone 6 smart phone can be bought now for $999. An Android Samsung Galaxy 5 smart phone can be bought now for $599.

If the Samsung phone lasts for four years, approximately how long must the Apple phone last for to have the same equivalent annual cost?

Assume that both phones have equivalent features besides their lifetimes, that both are worthless once they've outlasted their life, the discount rate is 10% pa given as an effective annual rate, and there are no extra costs or benefits from either phone.

(a) 16 years

(b) 14 years

(c) 12 years

(d) 10 years

(e) 8 years

Question 559  variance, standard deviation, covariance, correlation

Which of the following statements about standard statistical mathematics notation is NOT correct?

(a) The arithmetic average of variable X is represented by ##\bar{X}##.

(b) The standard deviation of variable X is represented by ##\sigma_X##.

(c) The variance of variable X is represented by ##\sigma_X^2##.

(d) The covariance between variables X and Y is represented by ##\sigma_{X,Y}^2##.

(e) The correlation between variables X and Y is represented by ##\rho_{X,Y}##.

Question 627  CAPM, SML, NPV, Jensens alpha

Assets A, B, M and ##r_f## are shown on the graphs above. Asset M is the market portfolio and ##r_f## is the risk free yield on government bonds. Which of the below statements is NOT correct?

(a) Asset A has a Jensen's alpha of 4.5% pa.

(b) Asset A is under-priced.

(c) The NPV of buying asset A is zero.

(d) Asset B has a Jensen's alpha of zero.

(e) Asset B is fairly priced.

Question 721  mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate

Fred owns some Commonwealth Bank (CBA) shares. He has calculated CBA’s monthly returns for each month in the past 20 years using this formula:

###r_\text{t monthly}=\ln⁡ \left( \dfrac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} \right)###

He then took the arithmetic average and found it to be 1% per month using this formula:

###\bar{r}_\text{monthly}= \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( r_\text{t monthly} \right)} }{T} =0.01=1\% \text{ per month}###

He also found the standard deviation of these monthly returns which was 5% per month:

###\sigma_\text{monthly} = \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( \left( r_\text{t monthly} - \bar{r}_\text{monthly} \right)^2 \right)} }{T} =0.05=5\%\text{ per month}###

Which of the below statements about Fred’s CBA shares is NOT correct? Assume that the past historical average return is the true population average of future expected returns.

(a) The returns ##r_\text{t monthly}## are continuously compounded monthly returns and are likely to be normally distributed, so the mean, median and mode of these continuously compounded returns are all equal to 1% per month.

(b) The annualised average continuously compounded return is ##\bar{r}_\text{cc annual}=12×0.01=0.1=12\%\text{ pa}##. The annualised standard deviation is ##\sigma_\text{annual} = \sqrt{12}×0.05=0.173205081=17.32\%\text{ pa}##.

(c) Over the next 10 years the mean, median and mode continuously compounded 10 year returns will all equal ##0.01 \times 12 \times 10 = 120\%##.

(d) Over the next 10 years the expected mean gross discrete 10 year return is ##e^{(0.01 - 0.05^2/2)×12×10} = 2.857651118## and the median gross discrete 10 year return is ##e^{(0.01 + 0.05^2/2)×12×10}=3.857425531##.

(e) If the current price of the CBA shares is $75, then in 10 years they’re expected to have a mean value of ##75×e^{(0.01 + 0.05^2/2)×12×10} = 289.3069148## and a median value of ##75×e^{0.01×12×10}=249.0087692##.

Question 777  CAPM, beta

The market's expected total return is 10% pa and the risk free rate is 5% pa, both given as effective annual rates.

A stock has a beta of 0.5.

In the last 5 minutes, the federal government unexpectedly raised taxes. Over this time the share market fell by 3%. The risk free rate was unchanged.

What do you think was the stock's historical return over the last 5 minutes, given as an effective 5 minute rate?

(a) -1%

(b) -1.5%

(c) -2.5%

(d) -3%

(e) -7.5%

Question 791  mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate, log-normal distribution, VaR, confidence interval

A risk manager has identified that their pension fund’s continuously compounded portfolio returns are normally distributed with a mean of 5% pa and a standard deviation of 20% pa. The fund’s portfolio is currently valued at $1 million. Assume that there is no estimation error in the above figures. To simplify your calculations, all answers below use 2.33 as an approximation for the normal inverse cumulative density function at 99%. All answers are rounded to the nearest dollar. Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

(a) The mean (expected or arithmetic average) portfolio value in one year is $1,072,508. The median (50th percentile) portfolio value in one year is $1,051,271.

(b) The annual 99% relative VaR is $391,591.

(c) The annual 99% absolute VaR is $340,320.

(d) The 98% confidence interval of portfolio values in one year ##(V_1)## is ##\$659,680 < V_1 < \$1,675,312,977##.

(e) The 98% confidence interval of continuously compounded portfolio returns over the next year ##(r_{0 \rightarrow 1})## is ##-41.6\% < r_{0 \rightarrow 1} < 51.6\%##.