Fight Finance

Question 112  CAPM, risk

According to the theory of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), total risk can be broken into two components, systematic risk and idiosyncratic risk. Which of the following events would be considered a systematic, undiversifiable event according to the theory of the CAPM?

(a) A decrease in house prices in one city.

(b) An increase in mining industry tax rates.

(c) An increase in corporate tax rates.

(d) A case of fraud at a major retailer.

(e) A poor earnings announcement from a major firm.

Question 186  DDM, income and capital returns

Here's the Dividend Discount Model, used to price stocks:

### p_0=\frac{d_1}{r-g} ###

All rates are effective annual rates and the cash flows (##d_1##) are received every year. Note that the r and g terms in the above DDM could also be labelled: ###r = r_{\text{total, 0}\rightarrow\text{1yr, eff 1yr}}### ###g = r_{\text{capital, 0}\rightarrow\text{1yr, eff 1yr}}### Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

(a) The expected dividend in 3 years will be: ##d_3 = d_1 (1+g)^2##.

(b) The expected price in 3 years will be: ##p_3 = p_0 (1+g)^3##.

(c) The expected effective 3 year total return measured over 3 years is equal to: ##r_{\text{total, 0}\rightarrow\text{3yr, eff 3yr}} = (1+r)^3-1##.

(d) The expected effective 3 year total return measured over 3 years will be: ##r_{\text{total, 0}\rightarrow\text{3yr, eff 3yr}} = \dfrac{p_3-p_0+d_3}{p_0}##.

(e) The expected effective annual dividend yield will be: ##r_{\text{dividend, 0}\rightarrow\text{3yr, eff annual}} = \dfrac{d_1}{p_0}##.

Question 282  expected and historical returns, income and capital returns

You're the boss of an investment bank's equities research team. Your five analysts are each trying to find the expected total return over the next year of shares in a mining company. The mining firm:

• Is regarded as a mature company since it's quite stable in size and was floated around 30 years ago. It is not a high-growth company;
• Share price is very sensitive to changes in the price of the market portfolio, economic growth, the exchange rate and commodities prices. Due to this, its standard deviation of total returns is much higher than that of the market index;
• Experienced tough times in the last 10 years due to unexpected falls in commodity prices.
• Shares are traded in an active liquid market.

Your team of analysts present their findings, and everyone has different views. While there's no definitive true answer, whose calculation of the expected total return is the most plausible? Assume that:

• The analysts' source data is correct and true, but their inferences might be wrong;
• All returns and yields are given as effective annual nominal rates.

(a) Alice says 5% pa since she calculated that this was the average total yield on government bonds over the last 10 years. She says that this is also the expected total yield implied by current prices on one year government bonds.

(b) Bob says 4% pa since he calculated that this was the average total return on the mining stock over the last 10 years.

(c) Cate says 3% pa since she calculated that this was the average growth rate of the share price over the last 10 years.

(d) Dave says 6% pa since he calculated that this was the average growth rate of the share market price index (not the accumulation index) over the last 10 years.

(e) Eve says 15% pa since she calculated that this was the discount rate implied by the dividend discount model using the current share price, forecast dividend in one year and a 3% growth rate in dividends thereafter, which is the expected long term inflation rate.

Question 320  foreign exchange rate, monetary policy, American and European terms

Investors expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to decrease the overnight cash rate at their next meeting.

Then unexpectedly, the RBA announce that they will keep the policy rate unchanged.

What do you expect to happen to Australia's exchange rate in the short term? The Australian dollar is likely to:

(a) Appreciate against the USD, so the 'European terms' quote of the AUD (AUD per USD) will increase.

(b) Depreciate against the USD, so the 'European terms' quote of the AUD (AUD per USD) will decrease.

(c) Appreciate against the USD, so the 'European terms' quote of the AUD (AUD per USD) will decrease.

(d) Depreciate against the USD, so the 'European terms' quote of the AUD (AUD per USD) will increase.

(e) Be unaffected by the change in the policy rate, so the exchange rate will remain the same.

Question 362  income and capital returns, DDM, real estate

Three years ago Frederika bought a house for $400,000.

Now it's worth $600,000, based on recent similar sales in the area.

Frederika's residential property has an expected total return of 7% pa.

She rents her house out for $2,500 per month, paid in advance. Every 12 months she plans to increase the rental payments.

The present value of 12 months of rental payments is $29,089.48.

The future value of 12 months of rental payments one year ahead is $31,125.74.

What is the expected annual capital yield of the property?

(a) -0.7814%

(b) -0.2724%

(c) 1.8124%

(d) 2%

(e) 2.1518%

Question 444  investment decision, corporate financial decision theory

The investment decision primarily affects which part of a business?

(a) Assets.

(b) Liabilities and owner's equity.

(c) Current assets and current liabilities.

(d) Dividends and buy backs.

(e) Net income, also known as earnings or net profit after tax.

Question 456  inflation, effective rate

In the 'Austin Powers' series of movies, the character Dr. Evil threatens to destroy the world unless the United Nations pays him a ransom (video 1, video 2). Dr. Evil makes the threat on two separate occasions:

• In 1969 he demands a ransom of $1 million (=10^6), and again;
• In 1997 he demands a ransom of $100 billion (=10^11).

If Dr. Evil's demands are equivalent in real terms, in other words $1 million will buy the same basket of goods in 1969 as $100 billion would in 1997, what was the implied inflation rate over the 28 years from 1969 to 1997?

The answer choices below are given as effective annual rates:

(a) 0.5086% pa

(b) 1.5086% pa

(c) 5.0859% pa

(d) 50.8591% pa

(e) 150.8591% pa

Question 497  income and capital returns, DDM, ex dividend date

A stock will pay you a dividend of $10 tonight if you buy it today. Thereafter the annual dividend is expected to grow by 5% pa, so the next dividend after the $10 one tonight will be $10.50 in one year, then in two years it will be $11.025 and so on. The stock's required return is 10% pa.

What is the stock price today and what do you expect the stock price to be tomorrow, approximately?

(a) $200 today and $210 tomorrow.

(b) $210 today and $220 tomorrow.

(c) $220 today and $230 tomorrow.

(d) $210 today and $200 tomorrow.

(e) $220 today and $210 tomorrow.

Question 728  inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows, income and capital returns, no explanation

Which of the following statements about gold is NOT correct? Assume that the gold price increases by inflation. Gold has a:

(a) Nil income cash flow.

(b) Real total return of zero.

(c) Real capital return equal to the inflation rate.

(d) Real income return of zero.

(e) Nominal income return of zero.

Question 906  effective rate, return types, net discrete return, return distribution, price gains and returns over time

For an asset's price to double from say $1 to $2 in one year, what must its effective annual return be? Note that an effective annual return is also called a net discrete return per annum. If the price now is ##P_0## and the price in one year is ##P_1## then the effective annul return over the next year is:

###r_\text{effective annual} = \dfrac{P_1 - P_0}{P_0} = \text{NDR}_\text{annual}###

(a) 0%

(b) 30.102999566%

(c) 69.314718056%

(d) 100%

(e) 200%