Fight Finance

Question 119  market efficiency, fundamental analysis, joint hypothesis problem

Your friend claims that by reading 'The Economist' magazine's economic news articles, she can identify shares that will have positive abnormal expected returns over the next 2 years. Assuming that her claim is true, which statement(s) are correct?

(i) Weak form market efficiency is broken.

(ii) Semi-strong form market efficiency is broken.

(iii) Strong form market efficiency is broken.

(iv) The asset pricing model used to measure the abnormal returns (such as the CAPM) is either wrong (mis-specification error) or is measured using the wrong inputs (data errors) so the returns may not be abnormal but rather fair for the level of risk.

Select the most correct response:

(a) Only (iii) is true.

(b) Only (ii) and (iii) are true.

(c) Only (i), (ii) and (iii) are true.

(d) Either (ii) and (iii) are true, or (iv) is true, or (ii), (iii) and (iv) are true.

(e) Either (i), (ii) and (iii) are true, or (iv) is true, or all are true.

Question 137  NPV, Annuity

The following cash flows are expected:

• 10 yearly payments of $60, with the first payment in 3 years from now (first payment at t=3 and last at t=12).
• 1 payment of $400 in 5 years and 6 months (t=5.5) from now.

What is the NPV of the cash flows if the discount rate is 10% given as an effective annual rate?

(a) $513.80

(b) $525.36

(c) $541.50

(d) $605.48

(e) $704.69

Question 142  DDM, income and capital returns

When using the dividend discount model to price a stock:

### p_{0} = \frac{d_1}{r - g} ###

The growth rate of dividends (g):

(a) Is the stock's required return.

(b) Is the stock's expected total return.

(c) Is the stock's expected dividend return.

(d) Is the stock's expected real yield.

(e) Should be less than the expected GDP growth rate of the country where the company does business.

Question 474  PE ratio

The below screenshot of Commonwealth Bank of Australia's (CBA) details were taken from the Google Finance website on 7 Nov 2014. Some information has been deliberately blanked out.

What was CBA's backwards-looking price-earnings ratio?

(a)17.06

(b) 0.063

(c) 15.88

(d) 3.21

(e) 8.44

Question 696  utility, risk aversion, utility function

Mr Blue, Miss Red and Mrs Green are people with different utility functions. Which of the statements about the 3 utility functions is NOT correct?

(a) Mr Blue prefers more wealth to less. Mrs Green enjoys losing wealth.

(b) Miss Red has the same utility no matter how much wealth she has.

(c) Mr Blue is risk averse.

(d) Miss Red is risk averse.

(e) Mrs Green is risk loving.

Question 733  DDM, income and capital returns

A share’s current price is $60. It’s expected to pay a dividend of $1.50 in one year. The growth rate of the dividend is 0.5% pa and the stock’s required total return is 3% pa. The stock’s price can be modeled using the dividend discount model (DDM):

##P_0=\dfrac{C_1}{r-g}##

Which of the following methods is NOT equal to the stock’s expected price in one year and six months (t=1.5 years)? Note that the symbolic formulas shown in each line below do equal the formulas with numbers. The formula is just repeated with symbols and then numbers in case it helps you to identify the incorrect statement more quickly.

(a) ##P_{1.5}=P_0 (1+g)^1 (1+r)^{0.5}=60(1+0.005)^1 (1+0.03)^{0.5}##

(b) ##P_{1.5}=(P_0 (1+r)^1-C_1 ) (1+r)^{0.5}=(60(1+0.03)^1-1.5) (1+0.03)^{0.5}##

(c) ##P_{1.5}=\dfrac{C_1}{r-g} (1+r)^1 (1+g)^{0.5}=\dfrac{1.5}{0.03-0.005} (1+0.03)^1 (1+0.005)^{0.5}##

(d) ##P_{1.5}=\dfrac{C_1 (1+g)^1}{r-g} (1+r)^{0.5}=\dfrac{1.5(1+0.005)^1}{0.03-0.005} (1+0.03)^{0.5}##

(e) ##P_{1.5}=\dfrac{C_1 (1+g)^2}{r-g}/(1+r)^{0.5} +C_1 (1+g)^1/(1+r)^{0.5} =\dfrac{1.5(1+0.005)^2}{0.03-0.005}/(1+0.03)^{0.5} +1.5(1+0.005)^1/(1+0.03)^{0.5} ##

Question 792  mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate, log-normal distribution, confidence interval

A risk manager has identified that their investment fund’s continuously compounded portfolio returns are normally distributed with a mean of 10% pa and a standard deviation of 40% pa. The fund’s portfolio is currently valued at $1 million. Assume that there is no estimation error in the above figures. To simplify your calculations, all answers below use 2.33 as an approximation for the normal inverse cumulative density function at 99%. All answers are rounded to the nearest dollar. Assume one month is 1/12 of a year. Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

(a) The median portfolio value in one year is $1,105,171. In one month it's $1,008,368.

(b) The mean portfolio value in one year is $1,197,217. In one month it's $1,015,113.

(c) The worst one percentile of portfolio values in one year is $435,178.

(d) The worst one percentile of portfolio values in one month is $933,016.

(e) The 98% confidence interval of portfolio values in two years is between $326,918 and $4,563,305.

Question 907  continuously compounding rate, return types, return distribution, price gains and returns over time

For an asset's price to double from say $1 to $2 in one year, what must its continuously compounded return ##(r_{CC})## be? If the price now is ##P_0## and the price in one year is ##P_1## then the continuously compounded return over the next year is:

###r_\text{CC annual} = \ln{\left[ \dfrac{P_1}{P_0} \right]} = \text{LGDR}_\text{annual}###

(a) 0%

(b) 30.102999566%

(c) 69.314718056%

(d) 100%

(e) 200%

Question 968  foreign exchange rate, forward foreign exchange rate, cross currency interest rate parity, no explanation

Below is a graph showing the spread or difference between government bond yields in different countries compared to the US. Assume that all governments have zero credit risk.

According to the principle of cross-currency interest rate parity, which country is likely to have the greatest expected currency appreciation against the USD over the next 2 years?

(a) Australia

(b) Canada

(c) UK

(d) Japan

(e) Germany

Question 972  foreign exchange rate, no explanation

Examine the below graphs. The first graph shows daily FX turnover in the world by both the public (government) and private sectors. The second graph 'Official Reserve Assets' shows the FX reserves of the Australian central bank, the RBA. The third graph's top panel shows the FX reserves of the Chinese central bank, the PBoC.

Assume that the AUD and USD are priced at parity so 1 AUD = 1 USD.

Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

(a) If the RBA tried to make the AUD appreciate, it would buy AUD and this would reduce its FX reserves.

(b) The Australian central bank’s FX reserves as a proportion of daily AUD per USD turnover is around 0.3.

(c) The Chinese central bank’s FX reserves as a proportion of daily RMB per USD turnover is around 15.

(d) The Australian central bank’s FX reserves may include AUD.

(e) The Chinese central bank’s FX reserves may include AUD.