Fight Finance

Your friend claims that by reading 'The Economist' magazine's economic news articles, she can identify shares that will have positive abnormal expected returns over the next 2 years. Assuming that her claim is true, which statement(s) are correct?

(i) Weak form market efficiency is broken.

(ii) Semi-strong form market efficiency is broken.

(iii) Strong form market efficiency is broken.

(iv) The asset pricing model used to measure the abnormal returns (such as the CAPM) is either wrong (mis-specification error) or is measured using the wrong inputs (data errors) so the returns may not be abnormal but rather fair for the level of risk.

Select the most correct response:

Details of two different types of desserts or edible treats are given below:

• High-sugar treats like candy, chocolate and ice cream make a person very happy. High sugar treats are cheap at only $2 per day.
• Low-sugar treats like nuts, cheese and fruit make a person equally happy if these foods are of high quality. Low sugar treats are more expensive at $4 per day.

The advantage of low-sugar treats is that a person only needs to pay the dentist $2,000 for fillings and root canal therapy once every 15 years. Whereas with high-sugar treats, that treatment needs to be done every 5 years.

The real discount rate is 10%, given as an effective annual rate. Assume that there are 365 days in every year and that all cash flows are real. The inflation rate is 3% given as an effective annual rate.

Find the equivalent annual cash flow (EAC) of the high-sugar treats and low-sugar treats, including dental costs. The below choices are listed in that order.

Ignore the pain of dental therapy, personal preferences and other factors.

The market expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to increase the policy rate by 25 basis points at their next meeting.

Then unexpectedly, the RBA announce that they will increase the policy rate by 50 basis points due to high future GDP and inflation forecasts.

What do you expect to happen to Australia's exchange rate in the short term? The Australian dollar will:

A residential real estate investor believes that house prices will grow at a rate of 5% pa and that rents will grow by 2% pa forever.

All rates are given as nominal effective annual returns. Assume that:

• His forecast is true.
• Real estate is and always will be fairly priced and the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is true.
• Ignore all costs such as taxes, agent fees, maintenance and so on.
• All rental income cash flow is paid out to the owner, so there is no re-investment and therefore no additions or improvements made to the property.
• The non-monetary benefits of owning real estate and renting remain constant.

Which one of the following statements is NOT correct? Over time:

One year ago a pharmaceutical firm floated by selling its 1 million shares for $100 each. Its book and market values of equity were both $100m. Its debt totalled $50m. The required return on the firm's assets was 15%, equity 20% and debt 5% pa.

In the year since then, the firm:

• Earned net income of $29m.
• Paid dividends totaling $10m.
• Discovered a valuable new drug that will lead to a massive 1,000 times increase in the firm's net income in 10 years after the research is commercialised. News of the discovery was publicly announced. The firm's systematic risk remains unchanged.

Which of the following statements is NOT correct? All statements are about current figures, not figures one year ago.

Hint: Book return on assets (ROA) and book return on equity (ROE) are ratios that accountants like to use to measure a business's past performance.

###\text{ROA}= \dfrac{\text{Net income}}{\text{Book value of assets}}###

###\text{ROE}= \dfrac{\text{Net income}}{\text{Book value of equity}}###

The required return on assets ##r_V## is a return that financiers like to use to estimate a business's future required performance which compensates them for the firm's assets' risks. If the business were to achieve realised historical returns equal to its required returns, then investment into the business's assets would have been a zero-NPV decision, which is neither good nor bad but fair.

###r_\text{V, 0 to 1}= \dfrac{\text{Cash flow from assets}_\text{1}}{\text{Market value of assets}_\text{0}} = \dfrac{CFFA_\text{1}}{V_\text{0}}###

Similarly for equity and debt.

Which business structure or structures have the advantage of limited liability for equity investors?

Which one of the below option and futures contracts gives the possibility of potentially unlimited gains?

Alice, Bob, Chris and Delta are traders in the futures market. The following trades occur over a single day in a newly-opened equity index future that matures in one year which the exchange just made available.

1. Alice buys a future from Bob.

2. Chris buys a future from Delta.

3. Alice buys a future from Chris.

These were the only trades made in this equity index future. What was the trading volume and what is the open interest?

The standard deviation of monthly changes in the spot price of corn is 50 cents per bushel. The standard deviation of monthly changes in the futures price of corn is 40 cents per bushel. The correlation between the spot price of corn and the futures price of corn is 0.9.

It is now March. A corn chip manufacturer is committed to buying 250,000 bushels of corn in May. The spot price of corn is 381 cents per bushel and the June futures price is 399 cents per bushel.

The corn chip manufacturer wants to use the June corn futures contracts to hedge his risk. Each futures contract is for the delivery of 5,000 bushels of corn. One bushel is about 127 metric tons.

How many corn futures should the corn chip manufacturer buy to hedge his risk? Round your answer to the nearest whole number of contracts. Remember to tail the hedge.