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Question 125  option, speculation, market efficiency

Suppose that the US government recently announced that subsidies for fresh milk producers will be gradually phased out over the next year. Newspapers say that there are expectations of a 40% increase in the spot price of fresh milk over the next year.

Option prices on fresh milk trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) reflect expectations of this 40% increase in spot prices over the next year. Similarly to the rest of the market, you believe that prices will rise by 40% over the next year.

What option trades are likely to be profitable, or to be more specific, result in a positive Net Present Value (NPV)?

Assume that:

  • Only the spot price is expected to increase and there is no change in expected volatility or other variables that affect option prices.
  • No taxes, transaction costs, information asymmetry, bid-ask spreads or other market frictions.



Question 142  DDM, income and capital returns

When using the dividend discount model to price a stock:

### p_{0} = \frac{d_1}{r - g} ###

The growth rate of dividends (g):



Question 144  NPV

A text book publisher is thinking of asking some teachers to write a new textbook at a cost of $100,000, payable now. The book would be written, printed and ready to sell to students in 2 years. It will be ready just before semester begins.

A cash flow of $100 would be made from each book sold, after all costs such as printing and delivery. There are 600 students per semester. Assume that every student buys a new text book. Remember that there are 2 semesters per year and students buy text books at the beginning of the semester.

Assume that text book publishers will sell the books at the same price forever and that the number of students is constant.

If the discount rate is 8% pa, given as an effective annual rate, what is the NPV of the project?



Question 217  NPV, DDM, multi stage growth model

A stock is expected to pay a dividend of $15 in one year (t=1), then $25 for 9 years after that (payments at t=2 ,3,...10), and on the 11th year (t=11) the dividend will be 2% less than at t=10, and will continue to shrink at the same rate every year after that forever. The required return of the stock is 10%. All rates are effective annual rates.

What is the price of the stock now?



Question 245  foreign exchange rate, monetary policy, foreign exchange rate direct quote, no explanation

Investors expect Australia's central bank, the RBA, to leave the policy rate unchanged at their next meeting.

Then unexpectedly, the policy rate is reduced due to fears that Australia's GDP growth is slowing.

What do you expect to happen to Australia's exchange rate? Direct and indirect quotes are given from the perspective of an Australian.

The Australian dollar will:



Question 358  PE ratio, Multiples valuation

Estimate the Chinese bank ICBC's share price using a backward-looking price earnings (PE) multiples approach with the following assumptions and figures only. Note that the renminbi (RMB) is the Chinese currency, also known as the yuan (CNY).

  • The 4 major Chinese banks ICBC, China Construction Bank (CCB), Bank of China (BOC) and Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) are comparable companies;
  • ICBC 's historical earnings per share (EPS) is RMB 0.74;
  • CCB's backward-looking PE ratio is 4.59;
  • BOC 's backward-looking PE ratio is 4.78;
  • ABC's backward-looking PE ratio is also 4.78;

Note: Figures sourced from Google Finance on 25 March 2014. Share prices are from the Shanghai stock exchange.



Question 389  real option, option

You're thinking of starting a new cafe business, but you're not sure if it will be profitable.

You have to decide what type of cups, mugs and glasses you wish to buy. You can pay to have your cafe's name printed on them, or just buy the plain un-marked ones. For marketing reasons it's better to have the cafe name printed. But the plain un-marked cups, mugs and glasses maximise your:



Question 424  takeover

Acquirer firm plans to launch a takeover of Target firm. The deal is expected to create a present value of synergies totaling $2 million. A cash offer will be made that pays the fair price for the target's shares plus 70% of the total synergy value. The cash will be paid out of the firm's cash holdings, no new debt or equity will be raised.

Firms Involved in the Takeover
Acquirer Target
Assets ($m) 60 10
Debt ($m) 20 2
Share price ($) 10 8
Number of shares (m) 4 1
 

Ignore transaction costs and fees. Assume that the firms' debt and equity are fairly priced, and that each firms' debts' risk, yield and values remain constant. The acquisition is planned to occur immediately, so ignore the time value of money.

Calculate the merged firm's share price and total number of shares after the takeover has been completed.



Question 679  option, no explanation

A trader sells one crude oil European style call option contract on the CME expiring in one year with an exercise price of $44 per barrel for a price of $6.64. The crude oil spot price is $40.33. If the trader doesn’t close out her contract before maturity, then at maturity she will have the:



Question 805  short selling

Short selling is a way to make money from falling prices. In what order must the following steps be completed to short-sell an asset? Let Tom, Dick and Harry be traders in the share market.

  • Step P: Purchase the asset from Harry.
  • Step G: Give the asset to Tom.
  • Step W: Wait and hope that the asset price falls.
  • Step B: Borrow the asset from Tom.
  • Step S: Sell the asset to Dick.

Select the statement with the correct order of steps.