Fight Finance

Suppose that the US government recently announced that subsidies for fresh milk producers will be gradually phased out over the next year. Newspapers say that there are expectations of a 40% increase in the spot price of fresh milk over the next year.

Option prices on fresh milk trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) reflect expectations of this 40% increase in spot prices over the next year. Similarly to the rest of the market, you believe that prices will rise by 40% over the next year.

What option trades are likely to be profitable, or to be more specific, result in a positive Net Present Value (NPV)?

Assume that:

• Only the spot price is expected to increase and there is no change in expected volatility or other variables that affect option prices.
• No taxes, transaction costs, information asymmetry, bid-ask spreads or other market frictions.

An industrial chicken farmer grows chickens for their meat. Chickens:

1. Cost $0.50 each to buy as chicks. They are bought on the day they’re born, at t=0.
2. Grow at a rate of $0.70 worth of meat per chicken per week for the first 6 weeks (t=0 to t=6).
3. Grow at a rate of $0.40 worth of meat per chicken per week for the next 4 weeks (t=6 to t=10) since they’re older and grow more slowly.
4. Feed costs are $0.30 per chicken per week for their whole life. Chicken feed is bought and fed to the chickens once per week at the beginning of the week. So the first amount of feed bought for a chicken at t=0 costs $0.30, and so on.
5. Can be slaughtered (killed for their meat) and sold at no cost at the end of the week. The price received for the chicken is their total value of meat (note that the chicken grows fast then slow, see above).

The required return of the chicken farm is 0.5% given as an effective weekly rate.

Ignore taxes and the fixed costs of the factory. Ignore the chicken’s welfare and other environmental and ethical concerns.

Find the equivalent weekly cash flow of slaughtering a chicken at 6 weeks and at 10 weeks so the farmer can figure out the best time to slaughter his chickens. The choices below are given in the same order, 6 and 10 weeks.

If the current AUD exchange rate is USD 0.9686 = AUD 1, what is the American terms quote of the AUD against the USD?

Which of the following is the least useful method or model to calculate the value of a real option in a project?

A company advertises an investment costing $1,000 which they say is underpriced. They say that it has an expected total return of 15% pa, but a required return of only 10% pa. Assume that there are no dividend payments so the entire 15% total return is all capital return.

Assuming that the company's statements are correct, what is the NPV of buying the investment if the 15% return lasts for the next 100 years (t=0 to 100), then reverts to 10% pa after that time? Also, what is the NPV of the investment if the 15% return lasts forever?

In both cases, assume that the required return of 10% remains constant. All returns are given as effective annual rates.

The answer choices below are given in the same order (15% for 100 years, and 15% forever):

The below screenshot of Commonwealth Bank of Australia's (CBA) details were taken from the Google Finance website on 7 Nov 2014. Some information has been deliberately blanked out.

What was CBA's backwards-looking price-earnings ratio?

A $100 stock has a continuously compounded expected total return of 10% pa. Its dividend yield is 2% pa with continuous compounding. What do you expect its price to be in 2.5 years?

A company can invest funds in a five year project at LIBOR plus 50 basis points pa. The five-year swap rate is 4% pa. What fixed rate of interest can the company earn over the next five years by using the swap?

Here is a table of stock prices and returns. Which of the statements below the table is NOT correct?