Suppose that the US government recently announced that subsidies for fresh milk producers will be gradually phased out over the next year. Newspapers say that there are expectations of a 40% increase in the spot price of fresh milk over the next year.
Option prices on fresh milk trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) reflect expectations of this 40% increase in spot prices over the next year. Similarly to the rest of the market, you believe that prices will rise by 40% over the next year.
What option trades are likely to be profitable, or to be more specific, result in a positive Net Present Value (NPV)?
Assume that:
- Only the spot price is expected to increase and there is no change in expected volatility or other variables that affect option prices.
- No taxes, transaction costs, information asymmetry, bid-ask spreads or other market frictions.
A European company just issued two bonds, a
- 3 year zero coupon bond at a yield of 6% pa, and a
- 4 year zero coupon bond at a yield of 6.5% pa.
What is the company's forward rate over the fourth year (from t=3 to t=4)? Give your answer as an effective annual rate, which is how the above bond yields are quoted.
High risk firms in danger of bankruptcy tend to have:
Which of the following equations is NOT equal to the total return of an asset?
Let ##p_0## be the current price, ##p_1## the expected price in one year and ##c_1## the expected income in one year.
A stock is expected to pay a dividend of $1 in one year. Its future annual dividends are expected to grow by 10% pa. So the first dividend of $1 is in one year, and the year after that the dividend will be $1.1 (=1*(1+0.1)^1), and a year later $1.21 (=1*(1+0.1)^2) and so on forever.
Its required total return is 30% pa. The total required return and growth rate of dividends are given as effective annual rates. The stock is fairly priced.
Calculate the pay back period of buying the stock and holding onto it forever, assuming that the dividends are received as at each time, not smoothly over each year.
Question 876 foreign exchange rate, forward foreign exchange rate, cross currency interest rate parity
Suppose the yield curve in the USA and Germany is flat and the:
- USD federal funds rate at the Federal Reserve is 1% pa;
- EUR deposit facility at the European Central Bank is -0.4% pa (note the negative sign);
- Spot EUR exchange rate is 1 USD per EUR;
- One year forward EUR exchange rate is 1.011 USD per EUR.
You suspect that there’s an arbitrage opportunity. Which one of the following statements about the potential arbitrage opportunity is NOT correct?
Question 884 monetary policy, impossible trinity, foreign exchange rate, no explanation
According to the impossible trinity, a currency can only have two of these three desirable traits: be fixed against the USD; convertible to and from USD for traders and investors so there are open goods, services and capital markets; and allow independent monetary policy set by the country’s central bank, independent of the US central bank.
Which of the following exchange rate regimes sacrifices fixing the exchange rate to the USD? In other words, which regime uses a floating exchange rate?