Fight Finance

Question 125  option, speculation, market efficiency

Suppose that the US government recently announced that subsidies for fresh milk producers will be gradually phased out over the next year. Newspapers say that there are expectations of a 40% increase in the spot price of fresh milk over the next year.

Option prices on fresh milk trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) reflect expectations of this 40% increase in spot prices over the next year. Similarly to the rest of the market, you believe that prices will rise by 40% over the next year.

What option trades are likely to be profitable, or to be more specific, result in a positive Net Present Value (NPV)?

Assume that:

• Only the spot price is expected to increase and there is no change in expected volatility or other variables that affect option prices.
• No taxes, transaction costs, information asymmetry, bid-ask spreads or other market frictions.

(a) Buy one year call options on fresh milk.

(b) Buy one year put options on fresh milk.

(c) Sell one year call options on fresh milk.

(d) All of the above option trades are likely to have a positive NPV.

(e) None of the above option trades are likely to have a positive NPV.

Question 282  expected and historical returns, income and capital returns

You're the boss of an investment bank's equities research team. Your five analysts are each trying to find the expected total return over the next year of shares in a mining company. The mining firm:

• Is regarded as a mature company since it's quite stable in size and was floated around 30 years ago. It is not a high-growth company;
• Share price is very sensitive to changes in the price of the market portfolio, economic growth, the exchange rate and commodities prices. Due to this, its standard deviation of total returns is much higher than that of the market index;
• Experienced tough times in the last 10 years due to unexpected falls in commodity prices.
• Shares are traded in an active liquid market.

Your team of analysts present their findings, and everyone has different views. While there's no definitive true answer, whose calculation of the expected total return is the most plausible? Assume that:

• The analysts' source data is correct and true, but their inferences might be wrong;
• All returns and yields are given as effective annual nominal rates.

(a) Alice says 5% pa since she calculated that this was the average total yield on government bonds over the last 10 years. She says that this is also the expected total yield implied by current prices on one year government bonds.

(b) Bob says 4% pa since he calculated that this was the average total return on the mining stock over the last 10 years.

(c) Cate says 3% pa since she calculated that this was the average growth rate of the share price over the last 10 years.

(d) Dave says 6% pa since he calculated that this was the average growth rate of the share market price index (not the accumulation index) over the last 10 years.

(e) Eve says 15% pa since she calculated that this was the discount rate implied by the dividend discount model using the current share price, forecast dividend in one year and a 3% growth rate in dividends thereafter, which is the expected long term inflation rate.

Question 628  CAPM, SML, risk

Assets A, B, M and ##r_f## are shown on the graphs above. Asset M is the market portfolio and ##r_f## is the risk free yield on government bonds. Assume that investors can borrow and lend at the risk free rate. Which of the below statements is NOT correct?

(a) Asset A has the same systematic risk as asset B.

(b) Asset A has more total variance than asset B.

(c) Asset B has zero idiosyncratic risk. Asset B must be a portfolio of half the market portfolio and half government bonds.

(d) If risk-averse investors were forced to invest all of their wealth in a single risky asset, so they could not diversify, every investor would logically choose asset A over the other three assets.

(e) Assets M and B have the highest Sharpe ratios, which is defined as the gradient of the capital allocation line (CAL) from the government bonds through the asset on the graph of expected return versus total standard deviation.

Question 631  foreign exchange rate

The Australian dollar's value was:

1.4875 USD per AUD on 31 August 1974.
0.4890 USD per AUD on 31 March 2001.

Did the Australian dollar or against the US dollar between these dates?

Question 753  NPV, perpetuity, DDM

The following cash flows are expected:

• A perpetuity of yearly payments of $30, with the first payment in 5 years (first payment at t=5, which continues every year after that forever).
• One payment of $100 in 6 years and 3 months (t=6.25).

What is the NPV of the cash flows if the discount rate is 10% given as an effective annual rate?

(a) $260.022324

(b) $213.660269

(c) $178.949525

(d) $151.628987

(e) $140.71319

Question 777  CAPM, beta

The market's expected total return is 10% pa and the risk free rate is 5% pa, both given as effective annual rates.

A stock has a beta of 0.5.

In the last 5 minutes, the federal government unexpectedly raised taxes. Over this time the share market fell by 3%. The risk free rate was unchanged.

What do you think was the stock's historical return over the last 5 minutes, given as an effective 5 minute rate?

(a) -1%

(b) -1.5%

(c) -2.5%

(d) -3%

(e) -7.5%

Question 789  rights issue, capital raising

A firm wishes to raise $30 million now. The firm's current market value of equity is $60m and the market price per share is $20. They estimate that they'll be able to issue shares in a rights issue at a subscription price of $15. Ignore the time value of money and assume that all shareholders exercise their rights. Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

(a) The firm currently has 3m shares on issue and will need to sell 2m new shares in the rights issue.

(b) The company should do a 2-for-3 rights issue.

(c) After the rights issue the market share price will be $17.

(d) The value of one right would be $3.

(e) If you don't take part in the rights issue and it is non-renounceable, you will lose $2 per share.

Question 832  option, Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing

A 12 month European-style call option with a strike price of $11 is written on a dividend paying stock currently trading at $10. The dividend is paid annually and the next dividend is expected to be $0.40, paid in 9 months. The risk-free interest rate is 5% pa continuously compounded and the standard deviation of the stock’s continuously compounded returns is 30 percentage points pa. The stock's continuously compounded returns are normally distributed. Using the Black-Scholes-Merton option valuation model, determine which of the following statements is NOT correct.

(a) ##d_1=-0.001033933##

(b) ##N[d_1]=0.447492432##

(c) ##d_2=-0.431999277 ##

(d) ##N[d_2]=0.332870969 ##

(e) ##c_0=0.81951217##

Question 864  option, binomial option pricing

A one year European-style put option has a strike price of $4. The option's underlying stock pays no dividends and currently trades at $5. The risk-free interest rate is 10% pa continuously compounded. Use a single step binomial tree to calculate the option price, assuming that the price could rise to $8 ##(u = 1.6)## or fall to $3.125 ##(d = 1/1.6)## in one year. The put option price now is:

(a) 0.401817831

(b) 0.430922619

(c) 0.444077381

(d) 0.490781407

(e) 0.861038209

Question 913  bill pricing, money market

A 90 day bank bill has a face value of $100,000.

Investor A bought the bill when it was first issued at a simple yield to maturity of 3% pa and sold it 20 days later to Investor B who expected to earn a simple yield to maturity of 5% pa. Investor B held it until maturity.

Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

(a) The bill’s initial price was $99,265.71.

(b) The bill’s price on day 20 was $99,726.78.

(c) The historical yield on day 20 since the bond was first issued was -3.9620% pa.

(d) Other similar bill yields to maturity would have also risen over the first 20 days.

(e) Investor B paid a bill price on day 20 that was less than the face value.