Fight Finance

The following is the Dividend Discount Model used to price stocks:

### p_0=\frac{d_1}{r-g} ###

Which of the following statements about the Dividend Discount Model is NOT correct?

You believe that the price of a share will fall significantly very soon, but the rest of the market does not. The market thinks that the share price will remain the same. Assuming that your prediction will soon be true, which of the following trades is a bad idea? In other words, which trade will NOT make money or prevent losses?

A man inherits $500,000 worth of shares.

He believes that by learning the secrets of trading, keeping up with the financial news and doing complex trend analysis with charts that he can quit his job and become a self-employed day trader in the equities markets.

What is the expected gain from doing this over the first year? Measure the net gain in wealth received at the end of this first year due to the decision to become a day trader. Assume the following:

• He earns $60,000 pa in his current job, paid in a lump sum at the end of each year.
• He enjoys examining share price graphs and day trading just as much as he enjoys his current job.
• Stock markets are weak form and semi-strong form efficient.
• He has no inside information.
• He makes 1 trade every day and there are 250 trading days in the year. Trading costs are $20 per trade. His broker invoices him for the trading costs at the end of the year.
• The shares that he currently owns and the shares that he intends to trade have the same level of systematic risk as the market portfolio.
• The market portfolio's expected return is 10% pa.

Measure the net gain over the first year as an expected wealth increase at the end of the year.

Notes

1. The firm's current liabilities are forecast to stay at $0.5m. The firm's current assets (mostly inventory) is currently $1m, but is forecast to grow by $0.1m at the end of each year due to the project.
   At the end of the project, the current assets accumulated due to the project can be sold for the same price that they were bought.
2. A marketing survey was used to forecast sales. It cost $1.4m which was just paid. The cost has been capitalised by the accountants and is tax-deductible over the life of the project, regardless of whether the project goes ahead or not. This amortisation expense is not included in the depreciation expense listed in the table above.

Assumptions

• All cash flows occur at the start or end of the year as appropriate, not in the middle or throughout the year.
• All rates and cash flows are real. The inflation rate is 3% pa.
• All rates are given as effective annual rates.

Find the break even unit production (Q) per year to achieve a zero Net Income (NI) and Net Present Value (NPV), respectively. The answers below are listed in the same order.

Three years ago Frederika bought a house for $400,000.

Now it's worth $600,000, based on recent similar sales in the area.

Frederika's residential property has an expected total return of 7% pa.

She rents her house out for $2,500 per month, paid in advance. Every 12 months she plans to increase the rental payments.

The present value of 12 months of rental payments is $29,089.48.

The future value of 12 months of rental payments one year ahead is $31,125.74.

What is the expected annual capital yield of the property?

One year ago a pharmaceutical firm floated by selling its 1 million shares for $100 each. Its book and market values of equity were both $100m. Its debt totalled $50m. The required return on the firm's assets was 15%, equity 20% and debt 5% pa.

In the year since then, the firm:

• Earned net income of $29m.
• Paid dividends totaling $10m.
• Discovered a valuable new drug that will lead to a massive 1,000 times increase in the firm's net income in 10 years after the research is commercialised. News of the discovery was publicly announced. The firm's systematic risk remains unchanged.

Which of the following statements is NOT correct? All statements are about current figures, not figures one year ago.

Hint: Book return on assets (ROA) and book return on equity (ROE) are ratios that accountants like to use to measure a business's past performance.

###\text{ROA}= \dfrac{\text{Net income}}{\text{Book value of assets}}###

###\text{ROE}= \dfrac{\text{Net income}}{\text{Book value of equity}}###

The required return on assets ##r_V## is a return that financiers like to use to estimate a business's future required performance which compensates them for the firm's assets' risks. If the business were to achieve realised historical returns equal to its required returns, then investment into the business's assets would have been a zero-NPV decision, which is neither good nor bad but fair.

###r_\text{V, 0 to 1}= \dfrac{\text{Cash flow from assets}_\text{1}}{\text{Market value of assets}_\text{0}} = \dfrac{CFFA_\text{1}}{V_\text{0}}###

Similarly for equity and debt.

Which of the following statements about cash in the form of notes and coins is NOT correct? Assume that inflation is positive.

Notes and coins:

An investor bought a 20 year 5% pa fixed coupon government bond priced at par. The face value is $100. Coupons are paid semi-annually and the next one is in 6 months.

Six months later, just after the coupon at that time was paid, yields suddenly and unexpectedly rose to 5.5% pa. Note that all yields above are given as APR's compounding semi-annually.

What was the bond investors' historical total return over that first 6 month period, given as an effective semi-annual rate?

"Buy low, sell high" is a well-known saying. It suggests that investors should buy low then sell high, in that order.

How would you re-phrase that saying to describe short selling?

Suppose the yield curve in the USA and Germany is flat and the:

• USD federal funds rate at the Federal Reserve is 1% pa;
• EUR deposit facility at the European Central Bank is -0.4% pa (note the negative sign);
• Spot EUR exchange rate is 1 USD per EUR;
• One year forward EUR exchange rate is 1.011 USD per EUR.

You suspect that there’s an arbitrage opportunity. Which one of the following statements about the potential arbitrage opportunity is NOT correct?