Fight Finance

Question 186  DDM, income and capital returns

Here's the Dividend Discount Model, used to price stocks:

### p_0=\frac{d_1}{r-g} ###

All rates are effective annual rates and the cash flows (##d_1##) are received every year. Note that the r and g terms in the above DDM could also be labelled: ###r = r_{\text{total, 0}\rightarrow\text{1yr, eff 1yr}}### ###g = r_{\text{capital, 0}\rightarrow\text{1yr, eff 1yr}}### Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

(a) The expected dividend in 3 years will be: ##d_3 = d_1 (1+g)^2##.

(b) The expected price in 3 years will be: ##p_3 = p_0 (1+g)^3##.

(c) The expected effective 3 year total return measured over 3 years is equal to: ##r_{\text{total, 0}\rightarrow\text{3yr, eff 3yr}} = (1+r)^3-1##.

(d) The expected effective 3 year total return measured over 3 years will be: ##r_{\text{total, 0}\rightarrow\text{3yr, eff 3yr}} = \dfrac{p_3-p_0+d_3}{p_0}##.

(e) The expected effective annual dividend yield will be: ##r_{\text{dividend, 0}\rightarrow\text{3yr, eff annual}} = \dfrac{d_1}{p_0}##.

Question 202  DDM, payout policy

Currently, a mining company has a share price of $6 and pays constant annual dividends of $0.50. The next dividend will be paid in 1 year. Suddenly and unexpectedly the mining company announces that due to higher than expected profits, all of these windfall profits will be paid as a special dividend of $0.30 in 1 year.

If investors believe that the windfall profits and dividend is a one-off event, what will be the new share price? If investors believe that the additional dividend is actually permanent and will continue to be paid, what will be the new share price? Assume that the required return on equity is unchanged. Choose from the following, where the first share price includes the one-off increase in earnings and dividends for the first year only ##(P_\text{0 one-off})## , and the second assumes that the increase is permanent ##(P_\text{0 permanent})##:

(a) ##P_\text{0 one-off} = 9.6000, \space \space P_\text{0 permanent} = 6.2766##

(b) ##P_\text{0 one-off} = 6.3000, \space \space P_\text{0 permanent} = 6.2769##

(c) ##P_\text{0 one-off} = 9.6000, \space \space P_\text{0 permanent} = 6.3000##

(d) ##P_\text{0 one-off} = 6.2769, \space \space P_\text{0 permanent} = 9.6000##

(e) ##P_\text{0 one-off} = 6.3000, \space \space P_\text{0 permanent} = 9.6000##

Note: When a firm makes excess profits they sometimes pay them out as special dividends. Special dividends are just like ordinary dividends but they are one-off and investors do not expect them to continue, unlike ordinary dividends which are expected to persist.

Question 212  rights issue

In mid 2009 the listed mining company Rio Tinto announced a 21-for-40 renounceable rights issue. Below is the chronology of events:

• 04/06/2009. Share price opens at $69.00 and closes at $66.90.

• 05/06/2009. 21-for-40 rights issue announced at a subscription price of $28.29.

• 16/06/2009. Last day that shares trade cum-rights. Share price opens at $76.40 and closes at $75.50.

• 17/06/2009. Shares trade ex-rights. Rights trading commences.

All things remaining equal, what would you expect Rio Tinto's stock price to open at on the first day that it trades ex-rights (17/6/2009)? Ignore the time value of money since time is negligibly short. Also ignore taxes.

(a) $28.29

(b) $35.8625

(c) $44.5426

(d) $47.2100

(e) $59.2473

Question 229  bond pricing

An investor bought two fixed-coupon bonds issued by the same company, a zero-coupon bond and a 7% pa semi-annual coupon bond. Both bonds have a face value of $1,000, mature in 10 years, and had a yield at the time of purchase of 8% pa.

A few years later, yields fell to 6% pa. Which of the following statements is correct? Note that a capital gain is an increase in price.

(a) The zero-coupon bond and the 7% semi-annual coupon bond were both discount bonds but now they are both premium bonds.

(b) The zero-coupon bond and the 7% semi-annual coupon bond were both premium bonds but now they are both discount bonds.

(c) When yields fell, the investor made a capital loss on both bonds.

(d) When yields fell, the investor made a capital gain on both bonds.

(e) When yields fell, the investor made a capital gain on the zero coupon bond but a loss on the 7% semi-annual coupon bond.

Question 266  bond pricing, premium par and discount bonds

Bonds X and Y are issued by the same company. Both bonds yield 10% pa, and they have the same face value ($100), maturity, seniority, and payment frequency.

The only difference is that bond X pays coupons of 6% pa and bond Y pays coupons of 8% pa. Which of the following statements is true?

(a) Bonds X and Y are premium bonds.

(b) Bonds X and Y are discount bonds.

(c) Bond X is a discount bond but bond Y is a premium bond.

(d) Bond X is a premium bond but bond Y is a discount bond.

(e) Bonds X and Y are par bonds.

Question 282  expected and historical returns, income and capital returns

You're the boss of an investment bank's equities research team. Your five analysts are each trying to find the expected total return over the next year of shares in a mining company. The mining firm:

• Is regarded as a mature company since it's quite stable in size and was floated around 30 years ago. It is not a high-growth company;
• Share price is very sensitive to changes in the price of the market portfolio, economic growth, the exchange rate and commodities prices. Due to this, its standard deviation of total returns is much higher than that of the market index;
• Experienced tough times in the last 10 years due to unexpected falls in commodity prices.
• Shares are traded in an active liquid market.

Your team of analysts present their findings, and everyone has different views. While there's no definitive true answer, whose calculation of the expected total return is the most plausible? Assume that:

• The analysts' source data is correct and true, but their inferences might be wrong;
• All returns and yields are given as effective annual nominal rates.

(a) Alice says 5% pa since she calculated that this was the average total yield on government bonds over the last 10 years. She says that this is also the expected total yield implied by current prices on one year government bonds.

(b) Bob says 4% pa since he calculated that this was the average total return on the mining stock over the last 10 years.

(c) Cate says 3% pa since she calculated that this was the average growth rate of the share price over the last 10 years.

(d) Dave says 6% pa since he calculated that this was the average growth rate of the share market price index (not the accumulation index) over the last 10 years.

(e) Eve says 15% pa since she calculated that this was the discount rate implied by the dividend discount model using the current share price, forecast dividend in one year and a 3% growth rate in dividends thereafter, which is the expected long term inflation rate.

Question 315  foreign exchange rate, American and European terms

If the current AUD exchange rate is USD 0.9686 = AUD 1, what is the European terms quote of the AUD against the USD?

(a) 0.9686 USD per AUD

(b) 0.9686 AUD per USD

(c) 1.0324 USD per AUD

(d) 1.0324 AUD per USD

(e) 1.0324 AUD per EUR

Question 366  opportunity cost, NPV, CFFA

Your friend is trying to find the net present value of an investment which:

• Costs $1 million initially (t=0); and
• Pays a single positive cash flow of $1.1 million in one year (t=1).

The investment has a total required return of 10% pa due to its moderate level of undiversifiable risk.

Your friend is aware of the importance of opportunity costs and the time value of money, but he is unsure of how to find the NPV of the project.

He knows that the opportunity cost of investing the $1m in the project is the expected gain from investing the money in shares instead. Like the project, shares also have an expected return of 10% since they have moderate undiversifiable risk. This opportunity cost is $0.1m ##(=1m \times 10\%)## which occurs in one year (t=1).

He knows that the time value of money should be accounted for, and this can be done by finding the present value of the cash flows in one year.

Your friend has listed a few different ways to find the NPV which are written down below.

Method 1: ##-1m + \dfrac{1.1m}{(1+0.1)^1} ##

Method 2: ##-1m + 1.1m - 1m \times 0.1 ##

Method 3: ##-1m + \dfrac{1.1m}{(1+0.1)^1} - 1m \times 0.1 ##

Which of the above calculations give the correct NPV? Select the most correct answer.

(a) Method 1 only.

(b) Method 2 only.

(c) Method 3 only.

(d) Methods 1 and 2 only.

(e) Methods 1 and 3 only.

Question 632  foreign exchange rate, no explanation

Below is a graph of the USD against the JPY and EUR from 1980 to 2015, compiled by the RBA. Select the correct statement about what occurred between 1980 and 2015. Note that in 1980 the euro was around 1.3 USD per EUR and the Yen was around 250 JPY per USD.

(a) The JPY and EUR both appreciated against the USD.

(b) The JPY and EUR both depreciated against the USD.

(c) The JPY appreciated against the USD while the EUR depreciated against the USD.

(d) The JPY depreciated against the USD while the EUR appreciated against the USD.

(e) The JPY and EUR both remained unchanged against the USD.

Question 810  CAPM, systematic and idiosyncratic risk, market efficiency

Examine the graphs below. Assume that asset A is a single stock. Which of the following statements is NOT correct? Asset A:

(a) Has a beta of 0.5.

(b) Is fairly priced.

(c) Has systematic standard deviation equal to 10% pa.

(d) Has diversifiable standard deviation equal to 20% pa.

(e) Has total standard deviation equal to 40% pa.