Katya offers to pay you $10 at the end of every year for the next 5 years (t=1,2,3,4,5) if you pay her $50 now (t=0). You can borrow and lend from the bank at an interest rate of 10% pa, given as an effective annual rate.

Ignore credit risk.

Select the most correct statement from the following.

'Chartists', also known as 'technical traders', believe that:

Your poor friend asks to borrow some money from you. He would like $1,000 now (t=0) and every year for the next 5 years, so there will be 6 payments of $**1,000** from t=0 to t=5 inclusive. In return he will pay you $**10,000** in seven years from now (t=7).

What is the net present value (NPV) of lending to your friend?

Assume that your friend will definitely pay you back so the loan is risk-free, and that the yield on risk-free government debt is **10**% pa, given as an effective annual rate.

Stocks in the United States usually pay **quarterly** dividends. For example, the software giant Microsoft paid a $0.23 dividend every quarter over the 2013 financial year and plans to pay a $0.28 dividend every quarter over the 2014 financial year.

Using the dividend discount model and net present value techniques, calculate the stock price of Microsoft assuming that:

- The time now is the beginning of July 2014. The next dividend of $
**0.28**will be received in**3**months (end of September 2014), with another 3 quarterly payments of $0.28 after this (end of December 2014, March 2015 and June 2015). - The quarterly dividend will increase by
**2.5**% every year, but each quarterly dividend over the year will be equal. So each quarterly dividend paid in the financial year beginning in September 2015 will be $ 0.287 ##(=0.28×(1+0.025)^1)##, with the last at the end of June 2016. In the next financial year beginning in September 2016 each quarterly dividend will be $0.294175 ##(=0.28×(1+0.025)^2)##, with the last at the end of June 2017, and so on forever. - The total required return on equity is
**6**% pa. - The required return and growth rate are given as effective annual rates.
- Dividend payment dates and ex-dividend dates are at the same time.
- Remember that there are 4 quarters in a year and 3 months in a quarter.

What is the current stock price?

**Question 543** price gains and returns over time, IRR, NPV, income and capital returns, effective return

For an asset price to **triple** every **5** years, what must be the expected future capital return, given as an effective annual rate?

A stock has a beta of **1.5**. The market's expected total return is **10**% pa and the risk free rate is **5**% pa, both given as effective annual rates.

Over the last year, bad economic news was released showing a higher chance of recession. Over this time the share market **fell** by **1**%. So ##r_{m} = (P_{0} - P_{-1})/P_{-1} = -0.01##, where the current time is zero and one year ago is time -1. The risk free rate was unchanged.

What do you think was the stock's historical return over the **last year**, given as an effective annual rate?

**Question 703** utility, risk aversion, utility function, gamble

Mr Blue, Miss Red and Mrs Green are people with different utility functions.

Each person has $500 of initial wealth. A coin toss game is offered to each person at a casino where the player can win or lose $500. Each player can flip a coin and if they flip heads, they receive $500. If they flip tails then they will lose $500. Which of the following statements is **NOT** correct?

If a variable, say X, is **normally** distributed with mean ##\mu## and variance ##\sigma^2## then mathematicians write ##X \sim \mathcal{N}(\mu, \sigma^2)##.

If a variable, say Y, is **log-normally** distributed and the underlying normal distribution has mean ##\mu## and variance ##\sigma^2## then mathematicians write ## Y \sim \mathbf{ln} \mathcal{N}(\mu, \sigma^2)##.

The below three graphs show probability density functions (PDF) of three different random variables Red, Green and Blue.

Select the most correct statement:

**Question 776** market efficiency, systematic and idiosyncratic risk, beta, income and capital returns

Which of the following statements about returns is **NOT** correct? A stock's: