# Fight Finance

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Katya offers to pay you $10 at the end of every year for the next 5 years (t=1,2,3,4,5) if you pay her$50 now (t=0). You can borrow and lend from the bank at an interest rate of 10% pa, given as an effective annual rate.

Ignore credit risk.

Will you or Katya's deal?

Select the most correct statement from the following.

'Chartists', also known as 'technical traders', believe that:

Your poor friend asks to borrow some money from you. He would like $1,000 now (t=0) and every year for the next 5 years, so there will be 6 payments of$1,000 from t=0 to t=5 inclusive. In return he will pay you $10,000 in seven years from now (t=7). What is the net present value (NPV) of lending to your friend? Assume that your friend will definitely pay you back so the loan is risk-free, and that the yield on risk-free government debt is 10% pa, given as an effective annual rate. Stocks in the United States usually pay quarterly dividends. For example, the software giant Microsoft paid a$0.23 dividend every quarter over the 2013 financial year and plans to pay a $0.28 dividend every quarter over the 2014 financial year. Using the dividend discount model and net present value techniques, calculate the stock price of Microsoft assuming that: • The time now is the beginning of July 2014. The next dividend of$0.28 will be received in 3 months (end of September 2014), with another 3 quarterly payments of $0.28 after this (end of December 2014, March 2015 and June 2015). • The quarterly dividend will increase by 2.5% every year, but each quarterly dividend over the year will be equal. So each quarterly dividend paid in the financial year beginning in September 2015 will be$ 0.287 $(=0.28×(1+0.025)^1)$, with the last at the end of June 2016. In the next financial year beginning in September 2016 each quarterly dividend will be $0.294175 $(=0.28×(1+0.025)^2)$, with the last at the end of June 2017, and so on forever. • The total required return on equity is 6% pa. • The required return and growth rate are given as effective annual rates. • Dividend payment dates and ex-dividend dates are at the same time. • Remember that there are 4 quarters in a year and 3 months in a quarter. What is the current stock price? For an asset price to triple every 5 years, what must be the expected future capital return, given as an effective annual rate? You own a debt asset. Are you a or a ? A stock has a beta of 1.5. The market's expected total return is 10% pa and the risk free rate is 5% pa, both given as effective annual rates. Over the last year, bad economic news was released showing a higher chance of recession. Over this time the share market fell by 1%. So $r_{m} = (P_{0} - P_{-1})/P_{-1} = -0.01$, where the current time is zero and one year ago is time -1. The risk free rate was unchanged. What do you think was the stock's historical return over the last year, given as an effective annual rate? Mr Blue, Miss Red and Mrs Green are people with different utility functions. Each person has$500 of initial wealth. A coin toss game is offered to each person at a casino where the player can win or lose $500. Each player can flip a coin and if they flip heads, they receive$500. If they flip tails then they will lose \$500. Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

If a variable, say X, is normally distributed with mean $\mu$ and variance $\sigma^2$ then mathematicians write $X \sim \mathcal{N}(\mu, \sigma^2)$.

If a variable, say Y, is log-normally distributed and the underlying normal distribution has mean $\mu$ and variance $\sigma^2$ then mathematicians write $Y \sim \mathbf{ln} \mathcal{N}(\mu, \sigma^2)$.

The below three graphs show probability density functions (PDF) of three different random variables Red, Green and Blue.

Select the most correct statement:

Which of the following statements about returns is NOT correct? A stock's: