Fight Finance

Question 243  fundamental analysis, market efficiency

Fundamentalists who analyse company financial reports and news announcements (but who don't have inside information) will make positive abnormal returns if:

(a) Markets are weak and semi-strong form efficient but strong-form inefficient.

(b) Markets are weak form efficient but semi-strong and strong-form inefficient.

(c) Chartists make negative excess returns.

(d) Insiders make positive excess returns.

(e) Insiders make negative excess returns.

Question 307  risk, variance

Let the variance of returns for a share per month be ##\sigma_\text{monthly}^2##.

What is the formula for the variance of the share's returns per year ##(\sigma_\text{yearly}^2)##?

Assume that returns are independently and identically distributed (iid) so they have zero auto correlation, meaning that if the return was higher than average today, it does not indicate that the return tomorrow will be higher or lower than average.

(a) ##\sigma_\text{yearly}^2 = \sigma_\text{monthly}^2##

(b) ##\sigma_\text{yearly}^2 = \sigma_\text{monthly}^2 \times 12##

(c) ##\sigma_\text{yearly}^2 = \sigma_\text{monthly}^2 \times 12^2##

(d) ##\sigma_\text{yearly}^2 = \sigma_\text{monthly}^2 \times \sqrt{12}##

(e) ##\sigma_\text{yearly}^2 = \sigma_\text{monthly}^2 \times {12}^{1/3}##

Question 361  CFFA

Over the next year, the management of an unlevered company plans to:

• Make $5m in sales, $1.9m in net income and $2m in equity free cash flow (EFCF).
• Pay dividends of $1m.
• Complete a $1.3m share buy-back.

Assume that:

• All amounts are received and paid at the end of the year so you can ignore the time value of money.
• The firm has sufficient retained profits to legally pay the dividend and complete the buy back.
• The firm plans to run a very tight ship, with no excess cash above operating requirements currently or over the next year.

How much new equity financing will the company need? In other words, what is the value of new shares that will need to be issued?

(a) $2m

(b) $1m

(c) $0.4m

(d) $0.3m

(e) No new shares need to be issued, the firm will be sufficiently financed.

Question 388  real option, option

A moped is a bicycle with pedals and a little motor that can be switched on to assist the rider. Mopeds are useful for quick transport using the motor, and for physical exercise when using the pedals unassisted. This offers the rider:

(a) An expansion option.

(b) An abandonment option.

(c) A timing (or delaying) option.

(d) A production (or switching) option.

(e) Lots of options to exercise if they're out-of-money and have no fuel.

Question 660  fully amortising loan, interest only loan, APR

How much more can you borrow using an interest-only loan compared to a 25-year fully amortising loan if interest rates are 6% pa compounding per month and are not expected to change? If it makes it easier, assume that you can afford to pay $2,000 per month on either loan. Express your answer as a proportional increase using the following formula:

###\text{Proportional Increase} = \dfrac{V_\text{0,interest only}}{V_\text{0,fully amortising}} - 1###

(a) 77.6034%

(b) 30.3779%

(c) 28.8603%

(d) 22.3966%

(e) 7.5304%

Question 733  DDM, income and capital returns

A share’s current price is $60. It’s expected to pay a dividend of $1.50 in one year. The growth rate of the dividend is 0.5% pa and the stock’s required total return is 3% pa. The stock’s price can be modeled using the dividend discount model (DDM):

##P_0=\dfrac{C_1}{r-g}##

Which of the following methods is NOT equal to the stock’s expected price in one year and six months (t=1.5 years)? Note that the symbolic formulas shown in each line below do equal the formulas with numbers. The formula is just repeated with symbols and then numbers in case it helps you to identify the incorrect statement more quickly.

(a) ##P_{1.5}=P_0 (1+g)^1 (1+r)^{0.5}=60(1+0.005)^1 (1+0.03)^{0.5}##

(b) ##P_{1.5}=(P_0 (1+r)^1-C_1 ) (1+r)^{0.5}=(60(1+0.03)^1-1.5) (1+0.03)^{0.5}##

(c) ##P_{1.5}=\dfrac{C_1}{r-g} (1+r)^1 (1+g)^{0.5}=\dfrac{1.5}{0.03-0.005} (1+0.03)^1 (1+0.005)^{0.5}##

(d) ##P_{1.5}=\dfrac{C_1 (1+g)^1}{r-g} (1+r)^{0.5}=\dfrac{1.5(1+0.005)^1}{0.03-0.005} (1+0.03)^{0.5}##

(e) ##P_{1.5}=\dfrac{C_1 (1+g)^2}{r-g}/(1+r)^{0.5} +C_1 (1+g)^1/(1+r)^{0.5} =\dfrac{1.5(1+0.005)^2}{0.03-0.005}/(1+0.03)^{0.5} +1.5(1+0.005)^1/(1+0.03)^{0.5} ##

Question 760  time calculation, interest only loan, no explanation

Five years ago (##t=-5## years) you entered into an interest-only home loan with a principal of $500,000, an interest rate of 4.5% pa compounding monthly with a term of 25 years.

Then interest rates suddenly fall to 3% pa (##t=0##), but you continue to pay the same monthly home loan payments as you did before. Will your home loan be paid off by the end of its remaining term? If so, in how many years from now? Measure the time taken to pay off the home loan from the current time which is 5 years after the home loan was first entered into.

Assume that the lower interest rate was given to you immediately after the loan repayment at the end of year 5, which was the 60th payment since the loan was granted. Also assume that rates were and are expected to remain constant.

(a) Yes, in 117 months, which is 9 years and 9 months.

(b) Yes, in 152 months, which is 12 years and 8 months.

(c) Yes, in 202 months, which is 16 years and 10 months.

(d) Yes, in 240 months, which is 20 years.

(e) No, it will take longer than 20 years to pay off the loan.

Question 770  expected and historical returns, income and capital returns, coupon rate, bond pricing

Which of the following statements is NOT correct? Assume that all events are a surprise and that all other things remain equal. So for example, don't assume that just because a company's dividends and profit rise that its required return will also rise, assume the required return stays the same.

(a) If a company's dividend (and profit and free cash flow to equity) rises, its share price will rise.

(b) If a fixed coupon bond's yield to maturity rises, its price will rise.

(c) If a residential property's rent revenue rises, its price will rise.

(d) If a patent's royalty revenue rises, its price will also rise.

(e) If a software asset's licensing revenue rises, its price will also rise.

Question 832  option, Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing

A 12 month European-style call option with a strike price of $11 is written on a dividend paying stock currently trading at $10. The dividend is paid annually and the next dividend is expected to be $0.40, paid in 9 months. The risk-free interest rate is 5% pa continuously compounded and the standard deviation of the stock’s continuously compounded returns is 30 percentage points pa. The stock's continuously compounded returns are normally distributed. Using the Black-Scholes-Merton option valuation model, determine which of the following statements is NOT correct.

(a) ##d_1=-0.001033933##

(b) ##N[d_1]=0.447492432##

(c) ##d_2=-0.431999277 ##

(d) ##N[d_2]=0.332870969 ##

(e) ##c_0=0.81951217##

Question 859  money supply, no explanation

The below table shows Australian monetary aggregates. Note that ‘M3’ is the sum of all the figures in the table and ‘ADI’ stands for Authorised Deposit-taking Institution such as a bank, building society or credit union.

Australian Monetary Aggregates
March 2017, AUD billions
Currency	Current deposits with banks	Certificates of deposit issued by banks	Term deposits with banks	Other deposits with banks	Deposits with non-bank ADIs	M3
69.3	271.6	207.2	562.3	838.7	36.9	1986.0

 

Source: RBA Statistical Table D3 Monetary Aggregates.

Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

(a) Current deposits are the notes and coins that banks keep in their physical vaults and Automatic Teller Machines (ATM’s).

(b) Current deposits with banks pay little interest to depositors but are highly liquid since they can be withdrawn using ATM’s.

(c) The government directly controls the amount of notes and coins.

(d) The central bank indirectly controls the amount of deposits by changing the cash rate.

(e) When a commercial bank lends money to a borrower to buy a house, that money is likely to be deposited by the house seller into another bank.