# Fight Finance

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In the so called 'Swiss Loans Affair' of the 1980's, Australian banks offered loans denominated in Swiss Francs to Australian farmers at interest rates as low as 4% pa. This was far lower than interest rates on Australian Dollar loans which were above 10% due to very high inflation in Australia at the time.

In the late-1980's there was a large depreciation in the Australian Dollar. The Australian Dollar nearly halved in value against the Swiss Franc. Many Australian farmers went bankrupt since they couldn't afford the interest payments on the Swiss Franc loans because the Australian Dollar value of those payments nearly doubled. The farmers accused the banks of promoting Swiss Franc loans without making them aware of the risks.

What fundamental principal of finance did the Australian farmers (and the bankers) fail to understand?

Your neighbour asks you for a loan of $100 and offers to pay you back$120 in one year.

You don't actually have any money right now, but you can borrow and lend from the bank at a rate of 10% pa. Rates are given as effective annual rates.

Assume that your neighbour will definitely pay you back. Ignore interest tax shields and transaction costs.

The Net Present Value (NPV) of lending to your neighbour is $9.09. Describe what you would do to actually receive a$9.09 cash flow right now with zero net cash flows in the future.

A new company's Firm Free Cash Flow (FFCF, same as CFFA) is forecast in the graph below.

To value the firm's assets, the terminal value needs to be calculated using the perpetuity with growth formula:

$$V_{\text{terminal, }t-1} = \dfrac{FFCF_{\text{terminal, }t}}{r-g}$$

Which point corresponds to the best time to calculate the terminal value?

A business project is expected to cost $100 now (t=0), then pay$10 at the end of the third (t=3), fourth, fifth and sixth years, and then grow by 5% pa every year forever. So the cash flow will be $10.5 at the end of the seventh year (t=7), then$11.025 at the end of the eighth year (t=8) and so on perpetually. The total required return is 10℅ pa.

Which of the following formulas will NOT give the correct net present value of the project?

Which of the following statements about futures is NOT correct?

Over the last year, a constant-dividend-paying stock's price fell, while it's future expected dividends and profit remained the same. Assume that:

• Now is $t=0$, last year is $t=-1$ and next year is $t=1$;
• The dividend is paid at the end of each year, the last dividend was just paid today $(C_0)$ and the next dividend will be paid next year $(C_1)$;
• Markets are efficient and the dividend discount model is suitable for valuing the stock.

Which of the following statements is NOT correct? The stock's:

Below is a table of the 'Risk-weights for residential mortgages' as shown in APRA Basel 3 Prudential Standard APS 112 Capital Adequacy: Standardised Approach to Credit Risk January 2013.

 LVR (%) Standard eligible mortgages Non-standard eligible mortgages Risk-weight (no mortgage insurance) % Risk-weight (with at least 40% of the mortgage insured by an acceptable LMI) % Risk-weight (no mortgage insurance) % Risk-weight (with at least 40% of the mortgage insured by an acceptable LMI) % 0 – 60 35 35 50 35 60.01 – 80 35 35 75 50 80.01 – 90 50 35 100 75 90.01 – 100 75 50 100 75 > 100.01 100 75 100 100

A bank is considering granting a home loan to a man to buy a house worth $1.25 million using his own funds and the loan. The loan would be standard with no lenders mortgage insurance (LMI) and an LVR of 80%. What is the minimum regulatory capital that the bank requires to grant the home loan under the Basel 3 Accord? Ignore the capital conservation buffer. Question 923 omitted variable bias, CAPM, single factor model, single index model, no explanation Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the Single Index Model (SIM) are single factor models whose only risk factor is the market portfolio’s return. Say a Taxi company and an Umbrella company are influenced by two factors, the market portfolio return and rainfall. When it rains, both the Taxi and Umbrella companies’ stock prices do well. When there’s no rain, both do poorly. Assume that rainfall risk is a systematic risk that cannot be diversified and that rainfall has zero correlation with the market portfolio’s returns. Which of the following statements about these two stocks is NOT correct? The CAPM and SIM: The arithmetic average and standard deviation of returns on the ASX200 accumulation index over the 24 years from 31 Dec 1992 to 31 Dec 2016 were calculated as follows: $$\bar{r}_\text{yearly} = \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1992}^{24}{\left( \ln⁡ \left( \dfrac{P_{t+1}}{P_t} \right) \right)} }{T} = \text{AALGDR} =0.0949=9.49\% \text{ pa}$$ $$\sigma_\text{yearly} = \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1992}^{24}{\left( \left( \ln⁡ \left( \dfrac{P_{t+1}}{P_t} \right) - \bar{r}_\text{yearly} \right)^2 \right)} }{T} = \text{SDLGDR} = 0.1692=16.92\text{ pp pa}$$ Assume that the log gross discrete returns are normally distributed and that the above estimates are true population statistics, not sample statistics, so there is no standard error in the sample mean or standard deviation estimates. Also assume that the standardised normal Z-statistic corresponding to a one-tail probability of 2.5% is exactly -1.96. Which of the following statements is NOT correct? If you invested$1m today in the ASX200, then over the next 4 years:

The arithmetic average continuously compounded or log gross discrete return (AALGDR) on the ASX200 accumulation index over the 24 years from 31 Dec 1992 to 31 Dec 2016 is 9.49% pa.

The arithmetic standard deviation (SDLGDR) is 16.92 percentage points pa.

Assume that the data are sample statistics, not population statistics. Assume that the log gross discrete returns are normally distributed.

What is the standard error of your estimate of the sample ASX200 accumulation index arithmetic average log gross discrete return (AALGDR) over the 24 years from 1992 to 2016?