Fight Finance

Question 26  APR, effective rate

A European bond paying annual coupons of 6% offers a yield of 10% pa.

Convert the yield into an effective monthly rate, an effective annual rate and an effective daily rate. Assume that there are 365 days in a year.

All answers are given in the same order:

### r_\text{eff, monthly} , r_\text{eff, yearly} , r_\text{eff, daily} ###

(a) 0.0041, 0.05, 0.0001.

(b) 0.0080, 0.1, 0.0003.

(c) 0.0083, 0.1, 0.0003.

(d) 0.0083, 2.1384, 0.0031.

(e) 0.0083, 0.1047, 0.0033.

Question 195  equivalent annual cash flow

An industrial chicken farmer grows chickens for their meat. Chickens:

1. Cost $0.50 each to buy as chicks. They are bought on the day they’re born, at t=0.
2. Grow at a rate of $0.70 worth of meat per chicken per week for the first 6 weeks (t=0 to t=6).
3. Grow at a rate of $0.40 worth of meat per chicken per week for the next 4 weeks (t=6 to t=10) since they’re older and grow more slowly.
4. Feed costs are $0.30 per chicken per week for their whole life. Chicken feed is bought and fed to the chickens once per week at the beginning of the week. So the first amount of feed bought for a chicken at t=0 costs $0.30, and so on.
5. Can be slaughtered (killed for their meat) and sold at no cost at the end of the week. The price received for the chicken is their total value of meat (note that the chicken grows fast then slow, see above).

The required return of the chicken farm is 0.5% given as an effective weekly rate.

Ignore taxes and the fixed costs of the factory. Ignore the chicken’s welfare and other environmental and ethical concerns.

Find the equivalent weekly cash flow of slaughtering a chicken at 6 weeks and at 10 weeks so the farmer can figure out the best time to slaughter his chickens. The choices below are given in the same order, 6 and 10 weeks.

(a) $0.3651, $0.2374

(b) $0.3172, $0.3506

(c) $0.3065, $0.2157

(d) $0.3050, $0.2142

(e) $0.0157, $0.0491

Question 282  expected and historical returns, income and capital returns

You're the boss of an investment bank's equities research team. Your five analysts are each trying to find the expected total return over the next year of shares in a mining company. The mining firm:

• Is regarded as a mature company since it's quite stable in size and was floated around 30 years ago. It is not a high-growth company;
• Share price is very sensitive to changes in the price of the market portfolio, economic growth, the exchange rate and commodities prices. Due to this, its standard deviation of total returns is much higher than that of the market index;
• Experienced tough times in the last 10 years due to unexpected falls in commodity prices.
• Shares are traded in an active liquid market.

Your team of analysts present their findings, and everyone has different views. While there's no definitive true answer, whose calculation of the expected total return is the most plausible? Assume that:

• The analysts' source data is correct and true, but their inferences might be wrong;
• All returns and yields are given as effective annual nominal rates.

(a) Alice says 5% pa since she calculated that this was the average total yield on government bonds over the last 10 years. She says that this is also the expected total yield implied by current prices on one year government bonds.

(b) Bob says 4% pa since he calculated that this was the average total return on the mining stock over the last 10 years.

(c) Cate says 3% pa since she calculated that this was the average growth rate of the share price over the last 10 years.

(d) Dave says 6% pa since he calculated that this was the average growth rate of the share market price index (not the accumulation index) over the last 10 years.

(e) Eve says 15% pa since she calculated that this was the discount rate implied by the dividend discount model using the current share price, forecast dividend in one year and a 3% growth rate in dividends thereafter, which is the expected long term inflation rate.

Question 406  leverage, WACC, margin loan, portfolio return

One year ago you bought $100,000 of shares partly funded using a margin loan. The margin loan size was $70,000 and the other $30,000 was your own wealth or 'equity' in the share assets.

The interest rate on the margin loan was 7.84% pa.

Over the year, the shares produced a dividend yield of 4% pa and a capital gain of 5% pa.

What was the total return on your wealth? Ignore taxes, assume that all cash flows (interest payments and dividends) were paid and received at the end of the year, and all rates above are effective annual rates.

(a) 1.0757%

(b) 2.7067%

(c) 5.1333%

(d) 9.0000%

(e) 11.7067%

Hint: Remember that wealth in this context is your equity (E) in the house asset (V = D+E) which is funded by the loan (D) and your deposit or equity (E).

Question 409  NPV, capital structure, capital budgeting

A pharmaceutical firm has just discovered a valuable new drug. So far the news has been kept a secret.

The net present value of making and commercialising the drug is $200 million, but $600 million of bonds will need to be issued to fund the project and buy the necessary plant and equipment.

The firm will release the news of the discovery and bond raising to shareholders simultaneously in the same announcement. The bonds will be issued shortly after.

Once the announcement is made and the bonds are issued, what is the expected increase in the value of the firm's assets (ΔV), market capitalisation of debt (ΔD) and market cap of equity (ΔE)?

The triangle symbol is the Greek letter capital delta which means change or increase in mathematics.

Ignore the benefit of interest tax shields from having more debt.

Remember: ##ΔV = ΔD+ΔE##

(a) ##ΔV=800m, ΔD = 600m, ΔE=200m##

(b) ##ΔV=200m, ΔD = 600m, ΔE= 0##

(c) ##ΔV=200m, ΔD =0m, \quad ΔE=200m##

(d) ##ΔV=400m, ΔD = 600m, ΔE=-200m##

(e) ##ΔV=800m, ΔD = 800m, ΔE= 0##

Question 428  takeover

In a takeover deal where the offer is 100% scrip (shares), the merged firm's number of shares will be equal to the acquirer firm's original number of shares. or ?

Question 554  inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows

On his 20th birthday, a man makes a resolution. He will put $30 cash under his bed at the end of every month starting from today. His birthday today is the first day of the month. So the first addition to his cash stash will be in one month. He will write in his will that when he dies the cash under the bed should be given to charity.

If the man lives for another 60 years, how much money will be under his bed if he dies just after making his last (720th) addition?

Also, what will be the real value of that cash in today's prices if inflation is expected to 2.5% pa? Assume that the inflation rate is an effective annual rate and is not expected to change.

The answers are given in the same order, the amount of money under his bed in 60 years, and the real value of that money in today's prices.

(a) $21,600,     $95,035.46

(b) $21,600,     $49,515.44

(c) $21,600,     $4,909.33

(d) $21,600,     $2,557.86

(e) $11,254.05,     $2,557.86

Question 613  debt terminology

You own a debt asset. Are you a or a ?

Question 721  mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate

Fred owns some Commonwealth Bank (CBA) shares. He has calculated CBA’s monthly returns for each month in the past 20 years using this formula:

###r_\text{t monthly}=\ln⁡ \left( \dfrac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} \right)###

He then took the arithmetic average and found it to be 1% per month using this formula:

###\bar{r}_\text{monthly}= \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( r_\text{t monthly} \right)} }{T} =0.01=1\% \text{ per month}###

He also found the standard deviation of these monthly returns which was 5% per month:

###\sigma_\text{monthly} = \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( \left( r_\text{t monthly} - \bar{r}_\text{monthly} \right)^2 \right)} }{T} =0.05=5\%\text{ per month}###

Which of the below statements about Fred’s CBA shares is NOT correct? Assume that the past historical average return is the true population average of future expected returns.

(a) The returns ##r_\text{t monthly}## are continuously compounded monthly returns and are likely to be normally distributed, so the mean, median and mode of these continuously compounded returns are all equal to 1% per month.

(b) The annualised average continuously compounded return is ##\bar{r}_\text{cc annual}=12×0.01=0.1=12\%\text{ pa}##. The annualised standard deviation is ##\sigma_\text{annual} = \sqrt{12}×0.05=0.173205081=17.32\%\text{ pa}##.

(c) Over the next 10 years the mean, median and mode continuously compounded 10 year returns will all equal ##0.01 \times 12 \times 10 = 120\%##.

(d) Over the next 10 years the expected mean gross discrete 10 year return is ##e^{(0.01 - 0.05^2/2)×12×10} = 2.857651118## and the median gross discrete 10 year return is ##e^{(0.01 + 0.05^2/2)×12×10}=3.857425531##.

(e) If the current price of the CBA shares is $75, then in 10 years they’re expected to have a mean value of ##75×e^{(0.01 + 0.05^2/2)×12×10} = 289.3069148## and a median value of ##75×e^{0.01×12×10}=249.0087692##.

Question 981  margin loan, Basel accord, credit conversion factor

Margin loans secured by listed stock have a Basel III risk weight of 20%.

For margin loans that cannot be immediately cancelled by banks and asked to be repaid, the credit conversion factor (CCF) is 20%.

Suppose you have a stock portfolio worth $500,000, financed by:

• $300,000 of your own money; and
• $200,000 of the bank’s funds in the form of a margin loan which can only be cancelled by the bank after 5 days notice. The margin loan’s maximum LVR is 70%.

How much regulatory capital must the bank hold due to your margin loan? Assume that the bank wishes to pay dividends to its shareholders, so include the 2.5% capital conservation buffer in your calculations.

(a) $2100

(b) $4200

(c) $4800

(d) $5670

(e) $6300