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You're the boss of an investment bank's equities research team. Your five analysts are each trying to find the expected total return over the next year of shares in a mining company. The mining firm:

Is regarded as a mature company since it's quite stable in size and was floated around 30 years ago. It is not a high-growth company;
Share price is very sensitive to changes in the price of the market portfolio, economic growth, the exchange rate and commodities prices. Due to this, its standard deviation of total returns is much higher than that of the market index;
Experienced tough times in the last 10 years due to unexpected falls in commodity prices.
Shares are traded in an active liquid market.

Your team of analysts present their findings, and everyone has different views. While there's no definitive true answer, whose calculation of the expected total return is the most plausible? Assume that:

The analysts' source data is correct and true, but their inferences might be wrong;
All returns and yields are given as effective annual nominal rates.

(a) Alice says 5% pa since she calculated that this was the average total yield on government bonds over the last 10 years. She says that this is also the expected total yield implied by current prices on one year government bonds.

(b) Bob says 4% pa since he calculated that this was the average total return on the mining stock over the last 10 years.

(c) Cate says 3% pa since she calculated that this was the average growth rate of the share price over the last 10 years.

(d) Dave says 6% pa since he calculated that this was the average growth rate of the share market price index (not the accumulation index) over the last 10 years.

(e) Eve says 15% pa since she calculated that this was the discount rate implied by the dividend discount model using the current share price, forecast dividend in one year and a 3% growth rate in dividends thereafter, which is the expected long term inflation rate.

Question 289 DDM, expected and historical returns, ROE

In the dividend discount model:

###P_0 = \dfrac{C_1}{r-g}###

The return ##r## is supposed to be the:

Question 443 corporate financial decision theory, investment decision, financing decision, working capital decision, payout policy

Business people make lots of important decisions. Which of the following is the most important long term decision?

Question 478 income and capital returns

Total cash flows can be broken into income and capital cash flows. What is the name given to the income cash flow from owning shares?

Question 623 market efficiency

The efficient markets hypothesis (EMH) and no-arbitrage pricing theory are most closely related to which of the following concepts?

Question 738 financial statement, balance sheet, income statement

Where can a private firm's market value of equity be found? It can be sourced from the company's:

Question 744 income and capital returns, real and nominal returns and cash flows, inflation

If someone says "my shares rose by 10% last year", what do you assume that they mean? The effective annual:

Question 768 accounting terminology, book and market values, no explanation

Accountants and finance professionals have lots of names for the same things which can be quite confusing.

Which of the following groups of items are NOT synonyms?

Question 817 expected and historical returns, income and capital returns

Over the last year, a constant-dividend-paying stock's price fell, while it's future expected dividends and profit remained the same. Assume that:

Now is ##t=0##, last year is ##t=-1## and next year is ##t=1##;
The dividend is paid at the end of each year, the last dividend was just paid today ##(C_0)## and the next dividend will be paid next year ##(C_1)##;
Markets are efficient and the dividend discount model is suitable for valuing the stock.

Which of the following statements is NOT correct? The stock's:

Question 1004 CFFA, WACC, interest tax shield, DDM

Use the below information to value a mature levered company with growing annual perpetual cash flows and a constant debt-to-assets ratio. The next cash flow will be generated in one year from now, so a perpetuity can be used to value this firm. The firm's debt funding comprises annual fixed coupon bonds that all have the same seniority and coupon rate. When these bonds mature, new bonds will be re-issued, and so on in perpetuity. The yield curve is flat.

Data on a Levered Firm with Perpetual Cash Flows
Item abbreviation	Value	Item full name
##\text{OFCF}_1##	$12.5m	Operating free cash flow at time 1
##\text{FFCF}_1 \text{ or }\text{CFFA}_1##	$14m	Firm free cash flow or cash flow from assets at time 1
##\text{EFCF}_1##	$11m	Equity free cash flow at time 1
##\text{BondCoupons}_1##	$1.2m	Bond coupons paid to debt holders at time 1
##g##	2% pa	Growth rate of OFCF, FFCF, EFCF and Debt cash flow
##\text{WACC}_\text{BeforeTax}##	9% pa	Weighted average cost of capital before tax
##\text{WACC}_\text{AfterTax}##	8.25% pa	Weighted average cost of capital after tax
##r_\text{D}##	5% pa	Bond yield
##r_\text{EL}##	13% pa	Cost or required return of levered equity
##D/V_L##	50% pa	Debt to assets ratio, where the asset value includes tax shields
##n_\text{shares}##	1m	Number of shares
##t_c##	30%	Corporate tax rate

Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

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