Fight Finance

Question 282  expected and historical returns, income and capital returns

You're the boss of an investment bank's equities research team. Your five analysts are each trying to find the expected total return over the next year of shares in a mining company. The mining firm:

• Is regarded as a mature company since it's quite stable in size and was floated around 30 years ago. It is not a high-growth company;
• Share price is very sensitive to changes in the price of the market portfolio, economic growth, the exchange rate and commodities prices. Due to this, its standard deviation of total returns is much higher than that of the market index;
• Experienced tough times in the last 10 years due to unexpected falls in commodity prices.
• Shares are traded in an active liquid market.

Your team of analysts present their findings, and everyone has different views. While there's no definitive true answer, whose calculation of the expected total return is the most plausible? Assume that:

• The analysts' source data is correct and true, but their inferences might be wrong;
• All returns and yields are given as effective annual nominal rates.

(a) Alice says 5% pa since she calculated that this was the average total yield on government bonds over the last 10 years. She says that this is also the expected total yield implied by current prices on one year government bonds.

(b) Bob says 4% pa since he calculated that this was the average total return on the mining stock over the last 10 years.

(c) Cate says 3% pa since she calculated that this was the average growth rate of the share price over the last 10 years.

(d) Dave says 6% pa since he calculated that this was the average growth rate of the share market price index (not the accumulation index) over the last 10 years.

(e) Eve says 15% pa since she calculated that this was the discount rate implied by the dividend discount model using the current share price, forecast dividend in one year and a 3% growth rate in dividends thereafter, which is the expected long term inflation rate.

Question 322  foreign exchange rate, monetary policy, American and European terms

The market expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to decrease the policy rate by 25 basis points at their next meeting.

Then unexpectedly, the RBA announce that they will decrease the policy rate by 50 basis points due to fears of a recession and deflation.

What do you expect to happen to Australia's exchange rate? The Australian dollar will:

(a) Appreciate against the USD, so the 'American terms' quote of the AUD (USD per AUD) will increase.

(b) Depreciate against the USD, so the 'American terms' quote of the AUD (USD per AUD) will decrease.

(c) Appreciate against the USD, so the 'American terms' quote of the AUD (USD per AUD) will decrease.

(d) Depreciate against the USD, so the 'American terms' quote of the AUD (USD per AUD) will increase.

(e) Be unaffected by the change in the policy rate, so the exchange rate will remain the same.

Question 566  capital structure, capital raising, rights issue, on market repurchase, dividend, stock split, bonus issue

A company's share price fell by 20% and its number of shares rose by 25%. Assume that there are no taxes, no signalling effects and no transaction costs.

Which one of the following corporate events may have happened?

(a) $1 cash dividend when the pre-announcement stock price was $5.

(b) On-market buy-back of 20% of the company's outstanding stock.

(c) 5 for 4 stock split.

(d) 1 for 5 bonus issue.

(e) 1 for 4 rights issue at a subscription price of $3 when the pre-announcement stock price was $5.

Question 672  CAPM, beta

A stock has a beta of 1.5. The market's expected total return is 10% pa and the risk free rate is 5% pa, both given as effective annual rates.

What do you think will be the stock's expected return over the next year, given as an effective annual rate?

(a) 5% pa

(b) 7.5% pa

(c) 10% pa

(d) 12.5% pa

(e) 20% pa

Question 677  option, option profit, no explanation

Which of the below formulas gives the profit ##(\pi)## from being long a put option? Let the underlying asset price at maturity be ##S_T##, the exercise price be ##X_T## and the option price be ##f_{LP,0}##. Note that ##S_T##, ##X_T## and ##f_{LP,0}## are all positive numbers.

(a) ##\pi_{LP}=-max⁡(S_T-X_T,0) - f_{LP,0}##

(b) ##\pi_{LP}=-max⁡(X_T-S_T,0) + f_{LP,0}##

(c) ##\pi_{LP}=max⁡(S_T-X_T,0) - f_{LP,0}##

(d) ##\pi_{LP}=max⁡(X_T-S_T,0) + f_{LP,0}##

(e) ##\pi_{LP}=max(X_T-S_T,0) - f_{LP,0}##

Question 707  continuously compounding rate, continuously compounding rate conversion

Convert a 10% effective annual rate ##(r_\text{eff annual})## into a continuously compounded annual rate ##(r_\text{cc annual})##. The equivalent continuously compounded annual rate is:

(a) 230.258509% pa

(b) 10.536052% pa

(c) 10.517092% pa

(d) 10.468982% pa

(e) 9.531018% pa

Question 751  NPV, Annuity

Telsa Motors advertises that its Model S electric car saves $570 per month in fuel costs. Assume that Tesla cars last for 10 years, fuel and electricity costs remain the same, and savings are made at the end of each month with the first saving of $570 in one month from now.

The effective annual interest rate is 15.8%, and the effective monthly interest rate is 1.23%. What is the present value of the savings?

(a) $35,654.3278

(b) $33,306.1775

(c) $15,774.2122

(d) $3,607.4559

(e) $2,775.5148

Question 798  idiom, diversification, market efficiency, sunk cost, no explanation

The following quotes are most closely related to which financial concept?

• “Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work” -Thomas Edison
• “The only place where success comes before work is in the dictionary” -Vidal Sassoon
• “The safest way to double your money is to fold it over and put it in your pocket” - Kin Hubbard

(a) The efficient markets hypothesis.

(b) Time value of money.

(c) Separation of the investment and financing decisions.

(d) Diversification.

(e) Sunk costs.

Question 866  option, Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing

A one year European-style put option has a strike price of $4.

The option's underlying stock currently trades at $5, pays no dividends and its standard deviation of continuously compounded returns is 47% pa.

The risk-free interest rate is 10% pa continuously compounded.

Use the Black-Scholes-Merton formula to calculate the option price. The put option price now is:

(a) $1.550849674

(b) $0.982509295

(c) $0.666414943

(d) $0.287263739

(e) $0.055037262

Question 924  foreign exchange rate, forward foreign exchange rate, arbitrage, forward interest rate, no explanation

Suppose that the yield curve in the United States of America and Australia is flat and that the current:

• USD federal funds rate is 1% pa;
• AUD cash rate is 1.5% pa;
• Spot AUD exchange rate is 1 USD per AUD;
• One year forward AUD exchange rate is 0.97 USD per AUD.

You suspect that there’s an arbitrage opportunity.

Which one of the following statements about the potential arbitrage opportunity is NOT correct?

(a) Right now, borrow USD in America, convert it into AUD at the spot, lend it in Australia, lock in to buy USD and sell AUD forward one year. One year later, withdraw the AUD, convert it into USD and pay back the USD loan.

(b) American debt may be over-priced, sell it.

(c) Australian debt may be under-priced, buy it.

(d) The spot AUD may be under-priced compared to the USD, buy the AUD now.

(e) The forward AUD may be under-priced compared to the USD, lock in to buy the AUD in one year.