Fight Finance

Question 282  expected and historical returns, income and capital returns

You're the boss of an investment bank's equities research team. Your five analysts are each trying to find the expected total return over the next year of shares in a mining company. The mining firm:

• Is regarded as a mature company since it's quite stable in size and was floated around 30 years ago. It is not a high-growth company;
• Share price is very sensitive to changes in the price of the market portfolio, economic growth, the exchange rate and commodities prices. Due to this, its standard deviation of total returns is much higher than that of the market index;
• Experienced tough times in the last 10 years due to unexpected falls in commodity prices.
• Shares are traded in an active liquid market.

Your team of analysts present their findings, and everyone has different views. While there's no definitive true answer, whose calculation of the expected total return is the most plausible? Assume that:

• The analysts' source data is correct and true, but their inferences might be wrong;
• All returns and yields are given as effective annual nominal rates.

(a) Alice says 5% pa since she calculated that this was the average total yield on government bonds over the last 10 years. She says that this is also the expected total yield implied by current prices on one year government bonds.

(b) Bob says 4% pa since he calculated that this was the average total return on the mining stock over the last 10 years.

(c) Cate says 3% pa since she calculated that this was the average growth rate of the share price over the last 10 years.

(d) Dave says 6% pa since he calculated that this was the average growth rate of the share market price index (not the accumulation index) over the last 10 years.

(e) Eve says 15% pa since she calculated that this was the discount rate implied by the dividend discount model using the current share price, forecast dividend in one year and a 3% growth rate in dividends thereafter, which is the expected long term inflation rate.

Question 353  income and capital returns, inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows, real estate

A residential investment property has an expected nominal total return of 6% pa and nominal capital return of 3% pa.

Inflation is expected to be 2% pa. All rates are given as effective annual rates.

What are the property's expected real total, capital and income returns? The answer choices below are given in the same order.

(a) 3.9216%, 2.9412%, 0.9804%.

(b) 3.9216%, 0.9804%, 2.9412%.

(c) 3.9216%, 0.9804%, 0.9804%.

(d) 1.9804%, 1.0000%, 0.9804%.

(e) 1.9608%, 0.9804%, 0.9804%.

Question 425  takeover

Acquirer firm plans to launch a takeover of Target firm. The deal is expected to create a present value of synergies totaling $2 million. A scrip offer will be made that pays the fair price for the target's shares plus 70% of the total synergy value.

Firms Involved in the Takeover
	Acquirer	Target
Assets ($m)	60	10
Debt ($m)	20	2
Share price ($)	10	8
Number of shares (m)	4	1

Ignore transaction costs and fees. Assume that the firms' debt and equity are fairly priced, and that each firms' debts' risk, yield and values remain constant. The acquisition is planned to occur immediately, so ignore the time value of money.

Calculate the merged firm's share price and total number of shares after the takeover has been completed.

(a) $10.15 share price and 4.926108m shares on issue.

(b) $10.2881 share price and 4.86m shares on issue.

(c) $10.4167 share price and 4.8m shares on issue.

(d) $11.6279 share price and 4.3m shares on issue.

(e) $9.6 share price and 5m shares on issue.

Question 444  investment decision, corporate financial decision theory

The investment decision primarily affects which part of a business?

(a) Assets.

(b) Liabilities and owner's equity.

(c) Current assets and current liabilities.

(d) Dividends and buy backs.

(e) Net income, also known as earnings or net profit after tax.

Question 554  inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows

On his 20th birthday, a man makes a resolution. He will put $30 cash under his bed at the end of every month starting from today. His birthday today is the first day of the month. So the first addition to his cash stash will be in one month. He will write in his will that when he dies the cash under the bed should be given to charity.

If the man lives for another 60 years, how much money will be under his bed if he dies just after making his last (720th) addition?

Also, what will be the real value of that cash in today's prices if inflation is expected to 2.5% pa? Assume that the inflation rate is an effective annual rate and is not expected to change.

The answers are given in the same order, the amount of money under his bed in 60 years, and the real value of that money in today's prices.

(a) $21,600,     $95,035.46

(b) $21,600,     $49,515.44

(c) $21,600,     $4,909.33

(d) $21,600,     $2,557.86

(e) $11,254.05,     $2,557.86

Question 567  stock split, capital structure

A company conducts a 4 for 3 stock split. What is the percentage change in the stock price and the number of shares outstanding? The answers are given in the same order.

(a) -33.33%, 50%

(b) -25%, 33.33%

(c) -25%, 25%

(d) -20%, 25%

(e) 33.33%, -25%

Question 618  capital structure, no explanation

Who owns a company's shares? The:

(a) Company.

(b) Debt holders.

(c) Equity holders.

(d) Chief Executive Officer (CEO).

(e) Board of directors.

Question 651  future

Which of the following statements about futures is NOT correct?

(a) Futures quotes displayed on the exchange change continuously.

(b) Futures prices written in existing futures contracts are fixed, they do not change since they’re written in the legal contract.

(c) One year futures quotes equal the market’s expectation of the underlying asset price in one year. For this reason futures markets are a good predictor of the underlying asset prices.

(d) Futures prices can be calculated based on the spot price of the underlying asset compounded forward at the total opportunity cost of capital, less any storage costs and plus any income yields such as dividends.

(e) The futures price quote and the underlying asset's spot price will converge over time. At the future's expiry they’ll be equal.

Question 768  accounting terminology, book and market values, no explanation

Accountants and finance professionals have lots of names for the same things which can be quite confusing.

Which of the following groups of items are NOT synonyms?

(a) Revenue, sales, turn over.

(b) Paid up capital, contributed equity.

(c) Shares, stock, equity.

(d) Net income, earnings, net profit after tax, the bottom line.

(e) Market capitalisation of equity, book value of equity.

Question 778  CML, systematic and idiosyncratic risk, portfolio risk, CAPM

The capital market line (CML) is shown in the graph below. The total standard deviation is denoted by σ and the expected return is μ. Assume that markets are efficient so all assets are fairly priced.

Which of the below statements is NOT correct?

(a) The risk free security has zero systematic variance and zero idiosyncratic variance.

(b) The market portfolio has zero idiosyncratic variance.

(c) Any portfolio comprised of the market portfolio and risk free security has zero idiosyncratic variance.

(d) Portfolios that plot on the CML must only be comprised of the risk free security and the market portfolio.

(e) Portfolios that plot on the CML have some idiosyncratic variance and some systematic variance.