Fight Finance

Question 282  expected and historical returns, income and capital returns

You're the boss of an investment bank's equities research team. Your five analysts are each trying to find the expected total return over the next year of shares in a mining company. The mining firm:

• Is regarded as a mature company since it's quite stable in size and was floated around 30 years ago. It is not a high-growth company;
• Share price is very sensitive to changes in the price of the market portfolio, economic growth, the exchange rate and commodities prices. Due to this, its standard deviation of total returns is much higher than that of the market index;
• Experienced tough times in the last 10 years due to unexpected falls in commodity prices.
• Shares are traded in an active liquid market.

Your team of analysts present their findings, and everyone has different views. While there's no definitive true answer, whose calculation of the expected total return is the most plausible? Assume that:

• The analysts' source data is correct and true, but their inferences might be wrong;
• All returns and yields are given as effective annual nominal rates.

(a) Alice says 5% pa since she calculated that this was the average total yield on government bonds over the last 10 years. She says that this is also the expected total yield implied by current prices on one year government bonds.

(b) Bob says 4% pa since he calculated that this was the average total return on the mining stock over the last 10 years.

(c) Cate says 3% pa since she calculated that this was the average growth rate of the share price over the last 10 years.

(d) Dave says 6% pa since he calculated that this was the average growth rate of the share market price index (not the accumulation index) over the last 10 years.

(e) Eve says 15% pa since she calculated that this was the discount rate implied by the dividend discount model using the current share price, forecast dividend in one year and a 3% growth rate in dividends thereafter, which is the expected long term inflation rate.

Question 361  CFFA

Over the next year, the management of an unlevered company plans to:

• Make $5m in sales, $1.9m in net income and $2m in equity free cash flow (EFCF).
• Pay dividends of $1m.
• Complete a $1.3m share buy-back.

Assume that:

• All amounts are received and paid at the end of the year so you can ignore the time value of money.
• The firm has sufficient retained profits to legally pay the dividend and complete the buy back.
• The firm plans to run a very tight ship, with no excess cash above operating requirements currently or over the next year.

How much new equity financing will the company need? In other words, what is the value of new shares that will need to be issued?

(a) $2m

(b) $1m

(c) $0.4m

(d) $0.3m

(e) No new shares need to be issued, the firm will be sufficiently financed.

Question 456  inflation, effective rate

In the 'Austin Powers' series of movies, the character Dr. Evil threatens to destroy the world unless the United Nations pays him a ransom (video 1, video 2). Dr. Evil makes the threat on two separate occasions:

• In 1969 he demands a ransom of $1 million (=10^6), and again;
• In 1997 he demands a ransom of $100 billion (=10^11).

If Dr. Evil's demands are equivalent in real terms, in other words $1 million will buy the same basket of goods in 1969 as $100 billion would in 1997, what was the implied inflation rate over the 28 years from 1969 to 1997?

The answer choices below are given as effective annual rates:

(a) 0.5086% pa

(b) 1.5086% pa

(c) 5.0859% pa

(d) 50.8591% pa

(e) 150.8591% pa

Question 471  risk, accounting ratio

High risk firms in danger of bankruptcy tend to have:

(a) Low debt to assets ratios.

(b) High quick ratios.

(c) Low interest coverage ratios.

(d) Positive amounts of net working capital.

(e) High net profit margins.

Question 525  income and capital returns, real and nominal returns and cash flows, inflation

Which of the following statements about cash in the form of notes and coins is NOT correct? Assume that inflation is positive.

Notes and coins:

(a) Pay no income cash flow.

(b) Have a nominal total return of zero.

(c) Have a nominal capital return of zero.

(d) Have a nominal income return of zero.

(e) Have a real total return of zero.

Question 652  future, continuously compounding rate

An equity index is currently at 5,200 points. The 6 month futures price is 5,300 points and the total required return is 6% pa with continuous compounding. Each index point is worth $25.

What is the implied dividend yield as a continuously compounded rate per annum?

(a) 5.7145% pa

(b) 4.0952% pa

(c) 3.8096% pa

(d) 2.1904% pa

(e) 1.9048% pa

Question 695  utility, risk aversion, utility function

Mr Blue, Miss Red and Mrs Green are people with different utility functions. Which of the statements about the 3 utility functions is NOT correct?

(a) All rational people prefer more wealth to less.

(b) Mr Blue is risk averse.

(c) Miss Red is risk neutral.

(d) Mrs Green is risk averse.

(e) Mrs Green may enjoy gambling.

Question 707  continuously compounding rate, continuously compounding rate conversion

Convert a 10% effective annual rate ##(r_\text{eff annual})## into a continuously compounded annual rate ##(r_\text{cc annual})##. The equivalent continuously compounded annual rate is:

(a) 230.258509% pa

(b) 10.536052% pa

(c) 10.517092% pa

(d) 10.468982% pa

(e) 9.531018% pa

Question 714  return distribution, no explanation

Which of the following quantities is commonly assumed to be normally distributed?

(a) Prices, ##P_1##.

(b) Gross discrete returns per annum, ##r_{\text{gdr 0 }\rightarrow \text{ 1}} = \dfrac{P_1}{P_0} ##.

(c) Effective annual returns per annum also known as net discrete returns, ##r_{\text{eff 0 }\rightarrow \text{ 1}} = \dfrac{P_1 - P_0}{P_0} = \dfrac{P_1}{P_0}-1##.

(d) Continuously compounded returns per annum, ##r_{\text{cc 0 }\rightarrow \text{ 1}} = \ln \left( \dfrac{P_1}{P_0} \right)##.

(e) Annualised percentage rates compounding per month, ##r_{\text{apr comp monthly 0 }\rightarrow \text{ 1 mth}} = \left( \dfrac{P_1 - P_0}{P_0} \right) \times 12##.

Question 897  comparative advantage in trade, production possibilities curve, no explanation

Adam and Bella are the only people on a remote island. Their production possibility curves are shown in the graph.

Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

(a) The equation of Adam’s production possibilities line is coconuts = -7/6*dates + 7.

(b) The equation of Bella’s production possibilities line is coconuts = -3/5*dates + 5

(c) Adam could pick 2 dates and 4.667 coconuts in one hour.

(d) Bella could pick 2 dates and 1.8 coconuts in one hour.