**Question 338** market efficiency, CAPM, opportunity cost, technical analysis

A man inherits $**500,000** worth of shares.

He believes that by learning the secrets of trading, keeping up with the financial news and doing complex trend analysis with charts that he can quit his job and become a self-employed day trader in the equities markets.

What is the expected gain from doing this over the first year? Measure the net gain in wealth received at the end of this first year due to the decision to become a day trader. Assume the following:

- He earns $
**60,000**pa in his current job, paid in a lump sum at the end of each year. - He enjoys examining share price graphs and day trading just as much as he enjoys his current job.
- Stock markets are weak form and semi-strong form efficient.
- He has no inside information.
- He makes
**1**trade every day and there are**250**trading days in the year. Trading costs are $**20**per trade. His broker invoices him for the trading costs at the end of the year. - The shares that he currently owns and the shares that he intends to trade have the same level of systematic risk as the market portfolio.
- The market portfolio's expected return is
**10**% pa.

Measure the **net gain** over the **first** year as an expected wealth increase at the **end** of the year.

The CAPM can be used to find a business's expected opportunity cost of capital:

###r_i=r_f+β_i (r_m-r_f)###

What should be used as the risk free rate ##r_f##?

Acquirer firm plans to launch a takeover of Target firm. The deal is expected to create a present value of synergies totaling $**0.5** million, but investment bank fees and integration costs with a present value of $**1.5** million is expected. A **10**% **cash** and **90**% **scrip** offer will be made that pays the fair price for the target's shares only. Assume that the Target and Acquirer agree to the deal. The cash will be paid out of the firms' cash holdings, no new debt or equity will be raised.

Firms Involved in the Takeover | ||

Acquirer | Target | |

Assets ($m) | 60 | 10 |

Debt ($m) | 20 | 2 |

Share price ($) | 10 | 8 |

Number of shares (m) | 4 | 1 |

Assume that the firms' debt and equity are fairly priced, and that each firms' debts' risk, yield and values remain constant. The acquisition is planned to occur immediately, so ignore the time value of money.

Calculate the merged firm's share price and total number of shares after the takeover has been completed.

Private equity firms are known to buy medium sized private companies operating in the same industry, merge them together into a larger company, and then sell it off in a public float (initial public offering, IPO).

If medium-sized private companies trade at PE ratios of **5** and larger listed companies trade at PE ratios of **15**, what return can be achieved from this strategy?

Assume that:

- The medium-sized companies can be bought, merged and sold in an IPO instantaneously.
- There are no costs of finding, valuing, merging and restructuring the medium sized companies. Also, there is no competition to buy the medium-sized companies from other private equity firms.
- The large merged firm's earnings are the sum of the medium firms' earnings.
- The only reason for the difference in medium and large firm's PE ratios is due to the illiquidity of the medium firms' shares.
- Return is defined as: ##r_{0→1} = (p_1-p_0+c_1)/p_0## , where time zero is just before the merger and time one is just after.

Which of the following decisions relates to the current assets and current liabilities of the firm?

The following cash flows are expected:

- Constant perpetual yearly payments of $70, with the first payment in 2.5 years from now (first payment at t=2.5).
- A single payment of $600 in 3 years and 9 months (t=3.75) from now.

What is the NPV of the cash flows if the discount rate is 10% given as an effective annual rate?

**Question 554** inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows

On his 20th birthday, a man makes a resolution. He will put $**30** cash under his bed at the **end** of every month starting from today. His birthday today is the first day of the month. So the first addition to his cash stash will be in one month. He will write in his will that when he dies the cash under the bed should be given to charity.

If the man lives for another **60** years, how much money will be under his bed if he dies just after making his last (720th) addition?

Also, what will be the **real** value of that cash in today's prices if inflation is expected to **2.5%** pa? Assume that the inflation rate is an effective annual rate and is not expected to change.

The answers are given in the same order, the amount of money under his bed in 60 years, and the real value of that money in today's prices.

The current gold price is $**700**, gold storage costs are **2**% pa and the risk free rate is **10**% pa, both with **continuous compounding**.

What should be the **3** year gold futures price?

**Question 925** mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate, no explanation

The arithmetic average and standard deviation of returns on the ASX200 accumulation index over the 24 years from 31 Dec 1992 to 31 Dec 2016 were calculated as follows:

###\bar{r}_\text{yearly} = \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1992}^{24}{\left( \ln \left( \dfrac{P_{t+1}}{P_t} \right) \right)} }{T} = \text{AALGDR} =0.0949=9.49\% \text{ pa}###

###\sigma_\text{yearly} = \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1992}^{24}{\left( \left( \ln \left( \dfrac{P_{t+1}}{P_t} \right) - \bar{r}_\text{yearly} \right)^2 \right)} }{T} = \text{SDLGDR} = 0.1692=16.92\text{ pp pa}###

Assume that the log gross discrete returns are normally distributed and that the above estimates are true population statistics, not sample statistics, so there is no standard error in the sample mean or standard deviation estimates. Also assume that the standardised normal Z-statistic corresponding to a one-tail probability of **2.5**% is exactly **-1.96**.

Which of the following statements is **NOT** correct? If you invested $1m today in the ASX200, then over the next 4 years: