Fight Finance

Economic statistics released this morning were a surprise: they show a strong chance of consumer price inflation (CPI) reaching 5% pa over the next 2 years.

This is much higher than the previous forecast of 3% pa.

A vanilla fixed-coupon 2-year risk-free government bond was issued at par this morning, just before the economic news was released.

What is the expected change in bond price after the economic news this morning, and in the next 2 years? Assume that:

• Inflation remains at 5% over the next 2 years.
• Investors demand a constant real bond yield.
• The bond price falls by the (after-tax) value of the coupon the night before the ex-coupon date, as in real life.

A man inherits $500,000 worth of shares.

He believes that by learning the secrets of trading, keeping up with the financial news and doing complex trend analysis with charts that he can quit his job and become a self-employed day trader in the equities markets.

What is the expected gain from doing this over the first year? Measure the net gain in wealth received at the end of this first year due to the decision to become a day trader. Assume the following:

• He earns $60,000 pa in his current job, paid in a lump sum at the end of each year.
• He enjoys examining share price graphs and day trading just as much as he enjoys his current job.
• Stock markets are weak form and semi-strong form efficient.
• He has no inside information.
• He makes 1 trade every day and there are 250 trading days in the year. Trading costs are $20 per trade. His broker invoices him for the trading costs at the end of the year.
• The shares that he currently owns and the shares that he intends to trade have the same level of systematic risk as the market portfolio.
• The market portfolio's expected return is 10% pa.

Measure the net gain over the first year as an expected wealth increase at the end of the year.

A managed fund charges fees based on the amount of money that you keep with them. The fee is 2% of the start-of-year amount, but it is paid at the end of every year.

This fee is charged regardless of whether the fund makes gains or losses on your money.

The fund offers to invest your money in shares which have an expected return of 10% pa before fees.

You are thinking of investing $100,000 in the fund and keeping it there for 40 years when you plan to retire.

What is the Net Present Value (NPV) of investing your money in the fund? Note that the question is not asking how much money you will have in 40 years, it is asking: what is the NPV of investing in the fund? Assume that:

• The fund has no private information.
• Markets are weak and semi-strong form efficient.
• The fund's transaction costs are negligible.
• The cost and trouble of investing your money in shares by yourself, without the managed fund, is negligible.

A company advertises an investment costing $1,000 which they say is underpriced. They say that it has an expected total return of 15% pa, but a required return of only 10% pa. Assume that there are no dividend payments so the entire 15% total return is all capital return.

Assuming that the company's statements are correct, what is the NPV of buying the investment if the 15% return lasts for the next 100 years (t=0 to 100), then reverts to 10% pa after that time? Also, what is the NPV of the investment if the 15% return lasts forever?

In both cases, assume that the required return of 10% remains constant. All returns are given as effective annual rates.

The answer choices below are given in the same order (15% for 100 years, and 15% forever):

Due to floods overseas, there is a cut in the supply of the mineral iron ore and its price increases dramatically. An Australian iron ore mining company therefore expects a large but temporary increase in its profit and cash flows. The mining company does not have any positive NPV projects to begin, so what should it do? Select the most correct answer.

If the current AUD exchange rate is USD 0.9686 = AUD 1, what is the European terms quote of the AUD against the USD?

In the 1997 Asian financial crisis many countries' exchange rates depreciated rapidly against the US dollar (USD). The Thai, Indonesian, Malaysian, Korean and Filipino currencies were severely affected. The below graph shows these Asian countries' currencies in USD per one unit of their currency, indexed to 100 in June 1997.

Of the statements below, which is NOT correct? The Asian countries':

The following equation is the Dividend Discount Model, also known as the 'Gordon Growth Model' or the 'Perpetuity with growth' equation.

### p_{0} = \frac{c_1}{r_{\text{eff}} - g_{\text{eff}}} ###

What is the discount rate '## r_\text{eff} ##' in this equation?

An Australian company just issued two bonds:

• A 6-month zero coupon bond at a yield of 6% pa, and
• A 12 month zero coupon bond at a yield of 7% pa.

What is the company's forward rate from 6 to 12 months? Give your answer as an APR compounding every 6 months, which is how the above bond yields are quoted.

One and a half years ago Frank bought a house for $600,000. Now it's worth only $500,000, based on recent similar sales in the area.

The expected total return on Frank's residential property is 7% pa.

He rents his house out for $1,600 per month, paid in advance. Every 12 months he plans to increase the rental payments.

The present value of 12 months of rental payments is $18,617.27.

The future value of 12 months of rental payments one year in the future is $19,920.48.

What is the expected annual rental yield of the property? Ignore the costs of renting such as maintenance, real estate agent fees and so on.

A residential investment property has an expected nominal total return of 6% pa and nominal capital return of 3% pa.

Inflation is expected to be 2% pa. All rates are given as effective annual rates.

What are the property's expected real total, capital and income returns? The answer choices below are given in the same order.

A stock just paid its annual dividend of $9. The share price is $60. The required return of the stock is 10% pa as an effective annual rate.

What is the implied growth rate of the dividend per year?

The following equation is the Dividend Discount Model, also known as the 'Gordon Growth Model' or the 'Perpetuity with growth' equation.

###P_0=\frac{d_1}{r-g}###

A stock pays dividends annually. It just paid a dividend, but the next dividend (##d_1##) will be paid in one year.

According to the DDM, what is the correct formula for the expected price of the stock in 2.5 years?

A stock is expected to pay the following dividends:

After year 4, the annual dividend will grow in perpetuity at 5% pa, so;

• the dividend at t=5 will be $1.15(1+0.05),
• the dividend at t=6 will be $1.15(1+0.05)^2, and so on.

The required return on the stock is 10% pa. Both the growth rate and required return are given as effective annual rates. What is the current price of the stock?

You own an apartment which you rent out as an investment property.

What is the price of the apartment using discounted cash flow (DCF, same as NPV) valuation?

Assume that:

• You just signed a contract to rent the apartment out to a tenant for the next 12 months at $2,000 per month, payable in advance (at the start of the month, t=0). The tenant is just about to pay you the first $2,000 payment.
• The contract states that monthly rental payments are fixed for 12 months. After the contract ends, you plan to sign another contract but with rental payment increases of 3%. You intend to do this every year.
  So rental payments will increase at the start of the 13th month (t=12) to be $2,060 (=2,000(1+0.03)), and then they will be constant for the next 12 months.
  Rental payments will increase again at the start of the 25th month (t=24) to be $2,121.80 (=2,000(1+0.03)²), and then they will be constant for the next 12 months until the next year, and so on.
• The required return of the apartment is 8.732% pa, given as an effective annual rate.
• Ignore all taxes, maintenance, real estate agent, council and strata fees, periods of vacancy and other costs. Assume that the apartment will last forever and so will the rental payments.

A business project is expected to cost $100 now (t=0), then pay $10 at the end of the third (t=3), fourth, fifth and sixth years, and then grow by 5% pa every year forever. So the cash flow will be $10.5 at the end of the seventh year (t=7), then $11.025 at the end of the eighth year (t=8) and so on perpetually. The total required return is 10℅ pa.

Which of the following formulas will NOT give the correct net present value of the project?

A project to build a toll road will take 3 years to complete, costing three payments of $50 million, paid at the start of each year (at times 0, 1, and 2).

After completion, the toll road will yield a constant $10 million at the end of each year forever with no costs. So the first payment will be at t=4.

The required return of the project is 10% pa given as an effective nominal rate. All cash flows are nominal.

What is the payback period?

Which firms tend to have low forward-looking price-earnings (PE) ratios? Only consider firms with positive PE ratios.

An 'interest only' loan can also be called a:

You just signed up for a 30 year fully amortising mortgage with monthly payments of $1,000 per month. The interest rate is 6% pa which is not expected to change.

How much did you borrow? After 20 years, how much will be owing on the mortgage? The interest rate is still 6% and is not expected to change.

A bank grants a borrower an interest-only residential mortgage loan with a very large 50% deposit and a nominal interest rate of 6% that is not expected to change. Assume that inflation is expected to be a constant 2% pa over the life of the loan. Ignore credit risk.

From the bank's point of view, what is the long term expected nominal capital return of the loan asset?

Bonds A and B are issued by the same Australian company. Both bonds yield 7% pa, and they have the same face value ($100), maturity, seniority, and payment frequency.

The only difference is that bond A pays coupons of 10% pa and bond B pays coupons of 5% pa. Which of the following statements is true about the bonds' prices?

When using the dividend discount model, care must be taken to avoid using a nominal dividend growth rate that exceeds the country's nominal GDP growth rate. Otherwise the firm is forecast to take over the country since it grows faster than the average business forever.

Suppose a firm's nominal dividend grows at 10% pa forever, and nominal GDP growth is 5% pa forever. The firm's total dividends are currently $1 billion (t=0). The country's GDP is currently $1,000 billion (t=0).

In approximately how many years will the company's total dividends be as large as the country's GDP?

Which of the following statements about the capital and income returns of a 25 year fully amortising loan asset is correct?

Assume that the yield curve (which shows total returns over different maturities) is flat and is not expected to change.

Over the 25 years from issuance to maturity, a fully amortising loan's expected annual effective:

Your friend wants to borrow $1,000 and offers to pay you back $100 in 6 months, with more $100 payments at the end of every month for another 11 months. So there will be twelve $100 payments in total. She says that 12 payments of $100 equals $1,200 so she's being generous.

If interest rates are 12% pa, given as an APR compounding monthly, what is the Net Present Value (NPV) of your friend's deal?

What is the NPV of the following series of cash flows when the discount rate is 10% given as an effective annual rate?

The first payment of $90 is in 3 years, followed by payments every 6 months in perpetuity after that which shrink by 3% every 6 months. That is, the growth rate every 6 months is actually negative 3%, given as an effective 6 month rate. So the payment at ## t=3.5 ## years will be ## 90(1-0.03)^1=87.3 ##, and so on.

A 180-day Bank Accepted Bill has a face value of $1,000,000. The interest rate is 8% pa and there are 365 days in the year. What is its price now?