Fight Finance

Question 36  DDM, perpetuity with growth

A stock pays annual dividends which are expected to continue forever. It just paid a dividend of $10. The growth rate in the dividend is 2% pa. You estimate that the stock's required return is 10% pa. Both the discount rate and growth rate are given as effective annual rates. Using the dividend discount model, what will be the share price?

(a) $127.5

(b) $125

(c) $102

(d) $101.98

(e) $100

Question 264  DDM

The following equation is the Dividend Discount Model, also known as the 'Gordon Growth Model' or the 'Perpetuity with growth' equation.

###P_0=\frac{d_1}{r-g}###

A stock pays dividends annually. It just paid a dividend, but the next dividend (##d_1##) will be paid in one year.

According to the DDM, what is the correct formula for the expected price of the stock in 2.5 years?

(a) ##P_{2.5}=P_0 (1+g)^{2.5} ##

(b) ##P_{2.5}=P_0 (1+r)^{2.5} ##

(c) ##P_{2.5}=P_0 (1+g)^2 (1+r)^{0.5} ##

(d) ##P_{2.5}=P_0 (1+r)^2 (1+g)^{0.5} ##

(e) ##P_{2.5}=P_0 (1+r)^3 (1+g)^{-0.5} ##

Question 282  expected and historical returns, income and capital returns

You're the boss of an investment bank's equities research team. Your five analysts are each trying to find the expected total return over the next year of shares in a mining company. The mining firm:

• Is regarded as a mature company since it's quite stable in size and was floated around 30 years ago. It is not a high-growth company;
• Share price is very sensitive to changes in the price of the market portfolio, economic growth, the exchange rate and commodities prices. Due to this, its standard deviation of total returns is much higher than that of the market index;
• Experienced tough times in the last 10 years due to unexpected falls in commodity prices.
• Shares are traded in an active liquid market.

Your team of analysts present their findings, and everyone has different views. While there's no definitive true answer, whose calculation of the expected total return is the most plausible? Assume that:

• The analysts' source data is correct and true, but their inferences might be wrong;
• All returns and yields are given as effective annual nominal rates.

(a) Alice says 5% pa since she calculated that this was the average total yield on government bonds over the last 10 years. She says that this is also the expected total yield implied by current prices on one year government bonds.

(b) Bob says 4% pa since he calculated that this was the average total return on the mining stock over the last 10 years.

(c) Cate says 3% pa since she calculated that this was the average growth rate of the share price over the last 10 years.

(d) Dave says 6% pa since he calculated that this was the average growth rate of the share market price index (not the accumulation index) over the last 10 years.

(e) Eve says 15% pa since she calculated that this was the discount rate implied by the dividend discount model using the current share price, forecast dividend in one year and a 3% growth rate in dividends thereafter, which is the expected long term inflation rate.

Question 362  income and capital returns, DDM, real estate

Three years ago Frederika bought a house for $400,000.

Now it's worth $600,000, based on recent similar sales in the area.

Frederika's residential property has an expected total return of 7% pa.

She rents her house out for $2,500 per month, paid in advance. Every 12 months she plans to increase the rental payments.

The present value of 12 months of rental payments is $29,089.48.

The future value of 12 months of rental payments one year ahead is $31,125.74.

What is the expected annual capital yield of the property?

(a) -0.7814%

(b) -0.2724%

(c) 1.8124%

(d) 2%

(e) 2.1518%

Question 427  takeover

In a takeover deal where the offer is 100% cash, the merged firm's number of shares will be equal to the acquirer firm's original number of shares. or ?

Question 505  equivalent annual cash flow

A low-quality second-hand car can be bought now for $1,000 and will last for 1 year before it will be scrapped for nothing.

A high-quality second-hand car can be bought now for $4,900 and it will last for 5 years before it will be scrapped for nothing.

What is the equivalent annual cost of each car? Assume a discount rate of 10% pa, given as an effective annual rate.

The answer choices are given as the equivalent annual cost of the low-quality car and then the high quality car.

(a) $100,   $490

(b) $909.09,   $608.5

(c) $1,000,   $980

(d) $1,000,   $1578.3

(e) $1,100,   $1,292.61

Question 769  short selling, idiom, no explanation

"Buy low, sell high" is a well-known saying. It suggests that investors should buy low then sell high, in that order.

How would you re-phrase that saying to describe short selling?

(a) Buy high, then sell low.

(b) Buy low, then sell high.

(c) Sell high, then buy low.

(d) Sell low, then buy high.

(e) Sell high, then buy high.

Question 778  CML, systematic and idiosyncratic risk, portfolio risk, CAPM

The capital market line (CML) is shown in the graph below. The total standard deviation is denoted by σ and the expected return is μ. Assume that markets are efficient so all assets are fairly priced.

Which of the below statements is NOT correct?

(a) The risk free security has zero systematic variance and zero idiosyncratic variance.

(b) The market portfolio has zero idiosyncratic variance.

(c) Any portfolio comprised of the market portfolio and risk free security has zero idiosyncratic variance.

(d) Portfolios that plot on the CML must only be comprised of the risk free security and the market portfolio.

(e) Portfolios that plot on the CML have some idiosyncratic variance and some systematic variance.

Question 969  foreign exchange rate, no explanation

RBA analyst Adam Hamilton wrote in the December 2018 Bulletin article ‘Understanding Exchange Rates and Why They Are Important’ the following passage about bilateral exchange rates:

A bilateral exchange rate refers to the value of one currency relative to another. It is the most commonly referenced type of exchange rate. Most bilateral exchange rates are quoted against the US dollar (USD), as it is the most traded currency globally. Looking at the Australian dollar (AUD), the AUD/USD exchange rate gives you the amount of US dollars that you will receive for each Australian dollar that you convert (or sell). For example, an AUD/USD exchange rate of 0.75 means that you will get US75 cents for every 1 AUD.

An appreciation of the Australian dollar is an increase in its value compared with a foreign currency. This means that each Australian dollar buys you more foreign currency than before. Equivalently, if you are buying an item that is priced in foreign currency it will now cost you less in Australian dollars than before. If there is a depreciation of the Australian dollar, the opposite is true.

Based on this information, which of the following statements is NOT correct?

(a) 'US75 cents for every 1 AUD’ is an American terms quote of the AUD.

(b) 'US75 cents for every 1 AUD’ is equivalent to 0.75AUD per USD.

(c) The AUD would have appreciated against the USD if the quote moved from US75 to US80 cents for every 1 AUD.

(d) Importers of US goods into Australia would pay less in AUD and be happy if the exchange rate moved from US75 to US80 cents for every 1 AUD, all other things remaining equal.

(e) Exporters of Australian goods into the USA would receive less in AUD and be unhappy if the exchange rate moved from US75 to US80 cents for every 1 AUD, all other things remaining equal.

Question 973  foreign exchange rate, monetary policy, no explanation

Suppose the market expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to increase the policy rate by 25 basis points at their next meeting. The current exchange rate is 0.8 USD per AUD.

Then unexpectedly, the RBA announce that they will leave the policy rate unchanged due to increasing unemployment and fears of a potential recession.

What do you expect to happen to Australia's exchange rate on the day when the surprise announcement is made? The Australian dollar is likely to:

(a) Remain at 0.8 USD per AUD.

(b) Appreciate against the USD to be, say, 0.81 USD per AUD.

(c) Appreciate against the USD to be, say, 0.79 USD per AUD.

(d) Depreciate against the USD to be, say, 0.81 USD per AUD.

(e) Depreciate against the USD to be, say, 0.79 USD per AUD.