Over the next year, the management of an unlevered company plans to:
- Make $5m in sales, $1.9m in net income and $2m in equity free cash flow (EFCF).
- Pay dividends of $1m.
- Complete a $1.3m share buy-back.
Assume that:
- All amounts are received and paid at the end of the year so you can ignore the time value of money.
- The firm has sufficient retained profits to legally pay the dividend and complete the buy back.
- The firm plans to run a very tight ship, with no excess cash above operating requirements currently or over the next year.
How much new equity financing will the company need? In other words, what is the value of new shares that will need to be issued?
There are many ways to calculate a firm's free cash flow (FFCF), also called cash flow from assets (CFFA). Some include the annual interest tax shield in the cash flow and some do not.
Which of the below FFCF formulas include the interest tax shield in the cash flow?
###(1) \quad FFCF=NI + Depr - CapEx -ΔNWC + IntExp### ###(2) \quad FFCF=NI + Depr - CapEx -ΔNWC + IntExp.(1-t_c)### ###(3) \quad FFCF=EBIT.(1-t_c )+ Depr- CapEx -ΔNWC+IntExp.t_c### ###(4) \quad FFCF=EBIT.(1-t_c) + Depr- CapEx -ΔNWC### ###(5) \quad FFCF=EBITDA.(1-t_c )+Depr.t_c- CapEx -ΔNWC+IntExp.t_c### ###(6) \quad FFCF=EBITDA.(1-t_c )+Depr.t_c- CapEx -ΔNWC### ###(7) \quad FFCF=EBIT-Tax + Depr - CapEx -ΔNWC### ###(8) \quad FFCF=EBIT-Tax + Depr - CapEx -ΔNWC-IntExp.t_c### ###(9) \quad FFCF=EBITDA-Tax - CapEx -ΔNWC### ###(10) \quad FFCF=EBITDA-Tax - CapEx -ΔNWC-IntExp.t_c###The formulas for net income (NI also called earnings), EBIT and EBITDA are given below. Assume that depreciation and amortisation are both represented by 'Depr' and that 'FC' represents fixed costs such as rent.
###NI=(Rev - COGS - Depr - FC - IntExp).(1-t_c )### ###EBIT=Rev - COGS - FC-Depr### ###EBITDA=Rev - COGS - FC### ###Tax =(Rev - COGS - Depr - FC - IntExp).t_c= \dfrac{NI.t_c}{1-t_c}###One formula for calculating a levered firm's free cash flow (FFCF, or CFFA) is to use earnings before interest and tax (EBIT).
###\begin{aligned} FFCF &= (EBIT)(1-t_c) + Depr - CapEx -\Delta NWC + IntExp.t_c \\ &= (Rev - COGS - Depr - FC)(1-t_c) + Depr - CapEx -\Delta NWC + IntExp.t_c \\ \end{aligned} \\###
One method for calculating a firm's free cash flow (FFCF, or CFFA) is to ignore interest expense. That is, pretend that interest expense ##(IntExp)## is zero:
###\begin{aligned} FFCF &= (Rev - COGS - Depr - FC - IntExp)(1-t_c) + Depr - CapEx -\Delta NWC + IntExp \\ &= (Rev - COGS - Depr - FC - 0)(1-t_c) + Depr - CapEx -\Delta NWC - 0\\ \end{aligned}###
Unrestricted negative gearing is allowed in Australia, New Zealand and Japan. Negative gearing laws allow income losses on investment properties to be deducted from a tax-payer's pre-tax personal income. Negatively geared investors benefit from this tax advantage. They also hope to benefit from capital gains which exceed the income losses.
For example, a property investor buys an apartment funded by an interest only mortgage loan. Interest expense is $2,000 per month. The rental payments received from the tenant living on the property are $1,500 per month. The investor can deduct this income loss of $500 per month from his pre-tax personal income. If his personal marginal tax rate is 46.5%, this saves $232.5 per month in personal income tax.
The advantage of negative gearing is an example of the benefits of:
Due to floods overseas, there is a cut in the supply of the mineral iron ore and its price increases dramatically. An Australian iron ore mining company therefore expects a large but temporary increase in its profit and cash flows. The mining company does not have any positive NPV projects to begin, so what should it do? Select the most correct answer.
An established mining firm announces that it expects large losses over the following year due to flooding which has temporarily stalled production at its mines. Which statement(s) are correct?
(i) If the firm adheres to a full dividend payout policy it will not pay any dividends over the following year.
(ii) If the firm wants to signal that the loss is temporary it will maintain the same level of dividends. It can do this so long as it has enough retained profits.
(iii) By law, the firm will be unable to pay a dividend over the following year because it cannot pay a dividend when it makes a loss.
Select the most correct response:
Question 119 market efficiency, fundamental analysis, joint hypothesis problem
Your friend claims that by reading 'The Economist' magazine's economic news articles, she can identify shares that will have positive abnormal expected returns over the next 2 years. Assuming that her claim is true, which statement(s) are correct?
(i) Weak form market efficiency is broken.
(ii) Semi-strong form market efficiency is broken.
(iii) Strong form market efficiency is broken.
(iv) The asset pricing model used to measure the abnormal returns (such as the CAPM) is either wrong (mis-specification error) or is measured using the wrong inputs (data errors) so the returns may not be abnormal but rather fair for the level of risk.
Select the most correct response:
Suppose that the US government recently announced that subsidies for fresh milk producers will be gradually phased out over the next year. Newspapers say that there are expectations of a 40% increase in the spot price of fresh milk over the next year.
Option prices on fresh milk trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) reflect expectations of this 40% increase in spot prices over the next year. Similarly to the rest of the market, you believe that prices will rise by 40% over the next year.
What option trades are likely to be profitable, or to be more specific, result in a positive Net Present Value (NPV)?
Assume that:
- Only the spot price is expected to increase and there is no change in expected volatility or other variables that affect option prices.
- No taxes, transaction costs, information asymmetry, bid-ask spreads or other market frictions.
Question 338 market efficiency, CAPM, opportunity cost, technical analysis
A man inherits $500,000 worth of shares.
He believes that by learning the secrets of trading, keeping up with the financial news and doing complex trend analysis with charts that he can quit his job and become a self-employed day trader in the equities markets.
What is the expected gain from doing this over the first year? Measure the net gain in wealth received at the end of this first year due to the decision to become a day trader. Assume the following:
- He earns $60,000 pa in his current job, paid in a lump sum at the end of each year.
- He enjoys examining share price graphs and day trading just as much as he enjoys his current job.
- Stock markets are weak form and semi-strong form efficient.
- He has no inside information.
- He makes 1 trade every day and there are 250 trading days in the year. Trading costs are $20 per trade. His broker invoices him for the trading costs at the end of the year.
- The shares that he currently owns and the shares that he intends to trade have the same level of systematic risk as the market portfolio.
- The market portfolio's expected return is 10% pa.
Measure the net gain over the first year as an expected wealth increase at the end of the year.
Question 339 bond pricing, inflation, market efficiency, income and capital returns
Economic statistics released this morning were a surprise: they show a strong chance of consumer price inflation (CPI) reaching 5% pa over the next 2 years.
This is much higher than the previous forecast of 3% pa.
A vanilla fixed-coupon 2-year risk-free government bond was issued at par this morning, just before the economic news was released.
What is the expected change in bond price after the economic news this morning, and in the next 2 years? Assume that:
- Inflation remains at 5% over the next 2 years.
- Investors demand a constant real bond yield.
- The bond price falls by the (after-tax) value of the coupon the night before the ex-coupon date, as in real life.
For a price of $13, Carla will sell you a share paying a dividend of $1 in one year and every year after that forever. The required return of the stock is 10% pa.
For a price of $102, Andrea will sell you a share which just paid a dividend of $10 yesterday, and is expected to pay dividends every year forever, growing at a rate of 5% pa.
So the next dividend will be ##10(1+0.05)^1=$10.50## in one year from now, and the year after it will be ##10(1+0.05)^2=11.025## and so on.
The required return of the stock is 15% pa.
The following equation is the Dividend Discount Model, also known as the 'Gordon Growth Model' or the 'Perpetuity with growth' equation.
### p_{0} = \frac{c_1}{r_{\text{eff}} - g_{\text{eff}}} ###
What is the discount rate '## r_\text{eff} ##' in this equation?
Question 50 DDM, stock pricing, inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows
Most listed Australian companies pay dividends twice per year, the 'interim' and 'final' dividends, which are roughly 6 months apart.
You are an equities analyst trying to value the company BHP. You decide to use the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) as a starting point, so you study BHP's dividend history and you find that BHP tends to pay the same interim and final dividend each year, and that both grow by the same rate.
You expect BHP will pay a $0.55 interim dividend in six months and a $0.55 final dividend in one year. You expect each to grow by 4% next year and forever, so the interim and final dividends next year will be $0.572 each, and so on in perpetuity.
Assume BHP's cost of equity is 8% pa. All rates are quoted as nominal effective rates. The dividends are nominal cash flows and the inflation rate is 2.5% pa.
What is the current price of a BHP share?
The following equation is the Dividend Discount Model, also known as the 'Gordon Growth Model' or the 'Perpetuity with growth' equation.
### p_0 = \frac{d_1}{r - g} ###
Which expression is NOT equal to the expected dividend yield?
A stock just paid its annual dividend of $9. The share price is $60. The required return of the stock is 10% pa as an effective annual rate.
What is the implied growth rate of the dividend per year?
A stock pays annual dividends. It just paid a dividend of $5. The growth rate in the dividend is 1% pa. You estimate that the stock's required return is 8% pa. Both the discount rate and growth rate are given as effective annual rates.
Using the dividend discount model, what will be the share price?
A share just paid its semi-annual dividend of $5. The dividend is expected to grow at 1% every 6 months forever. This 1% growth rate is an effective 6 month rate.
Therefore the next dividend will be $5.05 in six months. The required return of the stock 8% pa, given as an effective annual rate.
What is the price of the share now?
Stocks in the United States usually pay quarterly dividends. For example, the software giant Microsoft paid a $0.23 dividend every quarter over the 2013 financial year and plans to pay a $0.28 dividend every quarter over the 2014 financial year.
Using the dividend discount model and net present value techniques, calculate the stock price of Microsoft assuming that:
- The time now is the beginning of July 2014. The next dividend of $0.28 will be received in 3 months (end of September 2014), with another 3 quarterly payments of $0.28 after this (end of December 2014, March 2015 and June 2015).
- The quarterly dividend will increase by 2.5% every year, but each quarterly dividend over the year will be equal. So each quarterly dividend paid in the financial year beginning in September 2015 will be $ 0.287 ##(=0.28×(1+0.025)^1)##, with the last at the end of June 2016. In the next financial year beginning in September 2016 each quarterly dividend will be $0.294175 ##(=0.28×(1+0.025)^2)##, with the last at the end of June 2017, and so on forever.
- The total required return on equity is 6% pa.
- The required return and growth rate are given as effective annual rates.
- Dividend payment dates and ex-dividend dates are at the same time.
- Remember that there are 4 quarters in a year and 3 months in a quarter.
What is the current stock price?
Which of the following investable assets are NOT suitable for valuation using PE multiples techniques?
Which of the following investable assets are NOT suitable for valuation using PE multiples techniques?
Which firms tend to have high forward-looking price-earnings (PE) ratios?
Katya offers to pay you $10 at the end of every year for the next 5 years (t=1,2,3,4,5) if you pay her $50 now (t=0). You can borrow and lend from the bank at an interest rate of 10% pa, given as an effective annual rate. Ignore credit risk.
There are many ways to write the ordinary annuity formula.
Which of the following is NOT equal to the ordinary annuity formula?
Your friend overheard that you need some cash and asks if you would like to borrow some money. She can lend you $5,000 now (t=0), and in return she wants you to pay her back $1,000 in two years (t=2) and every year after that for the next 5 years, so there will be 6 payments of $1,000 from t=2 to t=7 inclusive.
What is the net present value (NPV) of borrowing from your friend?
Assume that banks loan funds at interest rates of 10% pa, given as an effective annual rate.
A student just won the lottery. She won $1 million in cash after tax. She is trying to calculate how much she can spend per month for the rest of her life. She assumes that she will live for another 60 years. She wants to withdraw equal amounts at the beginning of every month, starting right now.
All of the cash is currently sitting in a bank account which pays interest at a rate of 6% pa, given as an APR compounding per month. On her last withdrawal, she intends to have nothing left in her bank account. How much can she withdraw at the beginning of each month?
Question 22 NPV, perpetuity with growth, effective rate, effective rate conversion
What is the NPV of the following series of cash flows when the discount rate is 10% given as an effective annual rate?
The first payment of $90 is in 3 years, followed by payments every 6 months in perpetuity after that which shrink by 3% every 6 months. That is, the growth rate every 6 months is actually negative 3%, given as an effective 6 month rate. So the payment at ## t=3.5 ## years will be ## 90(1-0.03)^1=87.3 ##, and so on.
A stock pays annual dividends which are expected to continue forever. It just paid a dividend of $10. The growth rate in the dividend is 2% pa. You estimate that the stock's required return is 10% pa. Both the discount rate and growth rate are given as effective annual rates. Using the dividend discount model, what will be the share price?
A share just paid its semi-annual dividend of $10. The dividend is expected to grow at 2% every 6 months forever. This 2% growth rate is an effective 6 month rate. Therefore the next dividend will be $10.20 in six months. The required return of the stock is 10% pa, given as an effective annual rate.
What is the price of the share now?
A stock is expected to pay the following dividends:
| Cash Flows of a Stock | ||||||
| Time (yrs) | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ... |
| Dividend ($) | 8 | 8 | 8 | 20 | 8 | ... |
After year 4, the dividend will grow in perpetuity at 4% pa. The required return on the stock is 10% pa. Both the growth rate and required return are given as effective annual rates. Note that the $8 dividend at time zero is about to be paid tonight.
What will be the price of the stock in 5 years (t = 5), just after the dividend at that time has been paid?
The following is the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) used to price stocks:
###P_0=\dfrac{C_1}{r-g}###
If the assumptions of the DDM hold and the stock is fairly priced, which one of the following statements is NOT correct? The long term expected:
A stock is expected to pay a dividend of $15 in one year (t=1), then $25 for 9 years after that (payments at t=2 ,3,...10), and on the 11th year (t=11) the dividend will be 2% less than at t=10, and will continue to shrink at the same rate every year after that forever. The required return of the stock is 10%. All rates are effective annual rates.
What is the price of the stock now?
The following equation is the Dividend Discount Model, also known as the 'Gordon Growth Model' or the 'Perpetuity with growth' equation.
### p_0= \frac{c_1}{r-g} ###
Which expression is equal to the expected dividend return?
Stocks in the United States usually pay quarterly dividends. For example, the retailer Wal-Mart Stores paid a $0.47 dividend every quarter over the 2013 calendar year and plans to pay a $0.48 dividend every quarter over the 2014 calendar year.
Using the dividend discount model and net present value techniques, calculate the stock price of Wal-Mart Stores assuming that:
- The time now is the beginning of January 2014. The next dividend of $0.48 will be received in 3 months (end of March 2014), with another 3 quarterly payments of $0.48 after this (end of June, September and December 2014).
- The quarterly dividend will increase by 2% every year, but each quarterly dividend over the year will be equal. So each quarterly dividend paid in 2015 will be $0.4896 (##=0.48×(1+0.02)^1##), with the first at the end of March 2015 and the last at the end of December 2015. In 2016 each quarterly dividend will be $0.499392 (##=0.48×(1+0.02)^2##), with the first at the end of March 2016 and the last at the end of December 2016, and so on forever.
- The total required return on equity is 6% pa.
- The required return and growth rate are given as effective annual rates.
- All cash flows and rates are nominal. Inflation is 3% pa.
- Dividend payment dates and ex-dividend dates are at the same time.
- Remember that there are 4 quarters in a year and 3 months in a quarter.
What is the current stock price?
Three years ago Frederika bought a house for $400,000.
Now it's worth $600,000, based on recent similar sales in the area.
Frederika's residential property has an expected total return of 7% pa.
She rents her house out for $2,500 per month, paid in advance. Every 12 months she plans to increase the rental payments.
The present value of 12 months of rental payments is $29,089.48.
The future value of 12 months of rental payments one year ahead is $31,125.74.
What is the expected annual capital yield of the property?
Question 416 real estate, market efficiency, income and capital returns, DDM, CAPM
A residential real estate investor believes that house prices will grow at a rate of 5% pa and that rents will grow by 2% pa forever.
All rates are given as nominal effective annual returns. Assume that:
- His forecast is true.
- Real estate is and always will be fairly priced and the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is true.
- Ignore all costs such as taxes, agent fees, maintenance and so on.
- All rental income cash flow is paid out to the owner, so there is no re-investment and therefore no additions or improvements made to the property.
- The non-monetary benefits of owning real estate and renting remain constant.
Which one of the following statements is NOT correct? Over time:
You operate a cattle farm that supplies hamburger meat to the big fast food chains. You buy a lot of grain to feed your cattle, and you sell the fully grown cattle on the livestock market.
You're afraid of adverse movements in grain and livestock prices. What options should you buy to hedge your exposures in the grain and cattle livestock markets?
Select the most correct response:
Question 381 Merton model of corporate debt, option, real option
In the Merton model of corporate debt, buying a levered company's debt is equivalent to buying risk free government bonds and:
Question 382 Merton model of corporate debt, real option, option
In the Merton model of corporate debt, buying a levered company's shares is equivalent to:
Question 434 Merton model of corporate debt, real option, option
A risky firm will last for one period only (t=0 to 1), then it will be liquidated. So it's assets will be sold and the debt holders and equity holders will be paid out in that order. The firm has the following quantities:
##V## = Market value of assets.
##E## = Market value of (levered) equity.
##D## = Market value of zero coupon bonds.
##F_1## = Total face value of zero coupon bonds which is promised to be paid in one year.
What is the payoff to debt holders at maturity, assuming that they keep their debt until maturity?
Stock A and B's returns have a correlation of 0.3. Which statement is NOT correct?
Diversification in a portfolio of two assets works best when the correlation between their returns is:
Find the sample standard deviation of returns using the data in the table:
| Stock Returns | |
| Year | Return pa |
| 2008 | 0.3 |
| 2009 | 0.02 |
| 2010 | -0.2 |
| 2011 | 0.4 |
The returns above and standard deviations below are given in decimal form.
Let the standard deviation of returns for a share per month be ##\sigma_\text{monthly}##.
What is the formula for the standard deviation of the share's returns per year ##(\sigma_\text{yearly})##?
Assume that returns are independently and identically distributed (iid) so they have zero auto correlation, meaning that if the return was higher than average today, it does not indicate that the return tomorrow will be higher or lower than average.
Question 308 risk, standard deviation, variance, no explanation
A stock's standard deviation of returns is expected to be:
- 0.09 per month for the first 5 months;
- 0.14 per month for the next 7 months.
What is the expected standard deviation of the stock per year ##(\sigma_\text{annual})##?
Assume that returns are independently and identically distributed (iid) and therefore have zero auto-correlation.
| Portfolio Details | ||||||
| Stock | Expected return |
Standard deviation |
Covariance ##(\sigma_{A,B})## | Beta | Dollars invested |
|
| A | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.12 | 0.5 | 40 | |
| B | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 80 | ||
What is the standard deviation (not variance) of the above portfolio? Note that the stocks' covariance is given, not correlation.
| Portfolio Details | ||||||
| Stock | Expected return |
Standard deviation |
Correlation ##(\rho_{A,B})## | Dollars invested |
||
| A | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 60 | ||
| B | 0.2 | 0.6 | 140 | |||
What is the standard deviation (not variance) of returns of the above portfolio?
Question 25 bond pricing, zero coupon bond, term structure of interest rates, forward interest rate
A European company just issued two bonds, a
- 2 year zero coupon bond at a yield of 8% pa, and a
- 3 year zero coupon bond at a yield of 10% pa.
What is the company's forward rate over the third year (from t=2 to t=3)? Give your answer as an effective annual rate, which is how the above bond yields are quoted.
| Portfolio Details | ||||||
| Stock | Expected return |
Standard deviation |
Correlation | Beta | Dollars invested |
|
| A | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.12 | 0.5 | 40 | |
| B | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 80 | ||
What is the beta of the above portfolio?
Question 408 leverage, portfolio beta, portfolio risk, real estate, CAPM
You just bought a house worth $1,000,000. You financed it with an $800,000 mortgage loan and a deposit of $200,000.
You estimate that:
- The house has a beta of 1;
- The mortgage loan has a beta of 0.2.
What is the beta of the equity (the $200,000 deposit) that you have in your house?
Also, if the risk free rate is 5% pa and the market portfolio's return is 10% pa, what is the expected return on equity in your house? Ignore taxes, assume that all cash flows (interest payments and rent) were paid and received at the end of the year, and all rates are effective annual rates.
| Portfolio Details | ||||||
| Stock | Expected return |
Standard deviation |
Correlation | Dollars invested |
||
| A | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 60 | ||
| B | 0.2 | 0.6 | 140 | |||
What is the expected return of the above portfolio?
Your credit card shows a $600 debt liability. The interest rate is 24% pa, payable monthly. You can't pay any of the debt off, except in 6 months when it's your birthday and you'll receive $50 which you'll use to pay off the credit card. If that is your only repayment, how much will the credit card debt liability be one year from now?
Your friend wants to borrow $1,000 and offers to pay you back $100 in 6 months, with more $100 payments at the end of every month for another 11 months. So there will be twelve $100 payments in total. She says that 12 payments of $100 equals $1,200 so she's being generous.
If interest rates are 12% pa, given as an APR compounding monthly, what is the Net Present Value (NPV) of your friend's deal?
You really want to go on a back packing trip to Europe when you finish university. Currently you have $1,500 in the bank. Bank interest rates are 8% pa, given as an APR compounding per month. If the holiday will cost $2,000, how long will it take for your bank account to reach that amount?
Question 49 inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows, APR, effective rate
In Australia, nominal yields on semi-annual coupon paying Government Bonds with 2 years until maturity are currently 2.83% pa.
The inflation rate is currently 2.2% pa, given as an APR compounding per quarter. The inflation rate is not expected to change over the next 2 years.
What is the real yield on these bonds, given as an APR compounding every 6 months?
Calculate the effective annual rates of the following three APR's:
- A credit card offering an interest rate of 18% pa, compounding monthly.
- A bond offering a yield of 6% pa, compounding semi-annually.
- An annual dividend-paying stock offering a return of 10% pa compounding annually.
All answers are given in the same order:
##r_\text{credit card, eff yrly}##, ##r_\text{bond, eff yrly}##, ##r_\text{stock, eff yrly}##
You're trying to save enough money to buy your first car which costs $2,500. You can save $100 at the end of each month starting from now. You currently have no money at all. You just opened a bank account with an interest rate of 6% pa payable monthly.
How many months will it take to save enough money to buy the car? Assume that the price of the car will stay the same over time.
You just signed up for a 30 year fully amortising mortgage loan with monthly payments of $2,000 per month. The interest rate is 9% pa which is not expected to change.
How much did you borrow? After 5 years, how much will be owing on the mortgage? The interest rate is still 9% and is not expected to change.
A 2 year corporate bond yields 3% pa with a coupon rate of 5% pa, paid semi-annually.
Find the effective monthly rate, effective six month rate, and effective annual rate.
##r_\text{eff monthly}##, ##r_\text{eff 6 month}##, ##r_\text{eff annual}##.
A 10 year Australian government bond was just issued at par with a yield of 3.9% pa. The fixed coupon payments are semi-annual. The bond has a face value of $1,000.
Six months later, just after the first coupon is paid, the yield of the bond decreases to 3.65% pa. What is the bond's new price?
You're trying to save enough money for a deposit to buy a house. You want to buy a house worth $400,000 and the bank requires a 20% deposit ($80,000) before it will give you a loan for the other $320,000 that you need.
You currently have no savings, but you just started working and can save $2,000 per month, with the first payment in one month from now. Bank interest rates on savings accounts are 4.8% pa with interest paid monthly and interest rates are not expected to change.
How long will it take to save the $80,000 deposit? Round your answer up to the nearest month.
A firm wishes to raise $20 million now. They will issue 8% pa semi-annual coupon bonds that will mature in 5 years and have a face value of $100 each. Bond yields are 6% pa, given as an APR compounding every 6 months, and the yield curve is flat.
How many bonds should the firm issue?