Fight Finance

Question 41  DDM, income and capital returns

The following is the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) used to price stocks:

### P_0 = \frac{d_1}{r-g} ###

Assume that the assumptions of the DDM hold and that the time period is measured in years.

Which of the following is equal to the expected dividend in 3 years, ## d_3 ##?

(a) ## d_1(1+g)^3 ##

(b) ## P_3(r-g) ##

(c) ## d_2(1+g)^2 ##

(d) ## P_0(1+g)^3(r-g) ##

(e) ## P_0(1+g)^2(r-g) ##

Question 56  income and capital returns, bond pricing, premium par and discount bonds

Which of the following statements about risk free government bonds is NOT correct?

(a) Premium bonds have a positive expected capital return.

(b) Discount bonds have a positive expected capital return.

(c) Par bonds have a zero expected capital return.

(d) Par bonds have a total expected yield equal to their coupon yield.

(e) Zero coupon bonds selling at par would have zero expected total, income and capital yields.

Hint: Total return can be broken into income and capital returns as follows:

###\begin{aligned} r_\text{total} &= \frac{c_1}{p_0} + \frac{p_1-p_0}{p_0} \\ &= r_\text{income} + r_\text{capital} \end{aligned} ###

The capital return is the growth rate of the price.
The income return is the periodic cash flow. For a bond this is the coupon payment.

Question 100  market efficiency, technical analysis, joint hypothesis problem

A company selling charting and technical analysis software claims that independent academic studies have shown that its software makes significantly positive abnormal returns. Assuming the claim is true, which statement(s) are correct?

(I) Weak form market efficiency is broken.

(II) Semi-strong form market efficiency is broken.

(III) Strong form market efficiency is broken.

(IV) The asset pricing model used to measure the abnormal returns (such as the CAPM) had mis-specification error so the returns may not be abnormal but rather fair for the level of risk.

Select the most correct response:

(a) Only III is true.

(b) Only II and III are true.

(c) Only I, II and III are true.

(d) Only IV is true.

(e) Either I, II and III are true, or IV is true, or they are all true.

Question 225  CFFA

A firm has forecast its Cash Flow From Assets (CFFA) for this year and management is worried that it is too low. Which one of the following actions will lead to a higher CFFA for this year (t=0 to 1)? Only consider cash flows this year. Do not consider cash flows after one year, or the change in the NPV of the firm. Consider each action in isolation.

(a) Buy less land, buildings and trucks than what was planned. Assume that this has no impact on revenue.

(b) Pay off more debt than was planned, to reduce the firm’s interest expense.

(c) Change the depreciation method used for tax purposes from diminishing value to straight line, so less depreciation occurs this year and more occurs in later years. Assume that the government’s tax department allow this.

(d) Buying more inventory than was planned, so there is an increase in net working capital. Assume that there is no increase in sales.

(e) Raising new equity through a rights issue. Assume that all of the money raised is spent on new capital assets such as land and trucks, but they will be fitted out and delivered in one year so no new cash will be earned from them.

Question 320  foreign exchange rate, monetary policy, American and European terms

Investors expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to decrease the overnight cash rate at their next meeting.

Then unexpectedly, the RBA announce that they will keep the policy rate unchanged.

What do you expect to happen to Australia's exchange rate in the short term? The Australian dollar is likely to:

(a) Appreciate against the USD, so the 'European terms' quote of the AUD (AUD per USD) will increase.

(b) Depreciate against the USD, so the 'European terms' quote of the AUD (AUD per USD) will decrease.

(c) Appreciate against the USD, so the 'European terms' quote of the AUD (AUD per USD) will decrease.

(d) Depreciate against the USD, so the 'European terms' quote of the AUD (AUD per USD) will increase.

(e) Be unaffected by the change in the policy rate, so the exchange rate will remain the same.

Question 622  expected and historical returns, risk

An economy has only two investable assets: stocks and cash.

Stocks had a historical nominal average total return of negative two percent per annum (-2% pa) over the last 20 years. Stocks are liquid and actively traded. Stock returns are variable, they have risk.

Cash is riskless and has a nominal constant return of zero percent per annum (0% pa), which it had in the past and will have in the future. Cash can be kept safely at zero cost. Cash can be converted into shares and vice versa at zero cost.

The nominal total return of the shares over the next year is expected to be:

(a) Less than or equal to negative two percent per annum ##(r_\text{shares} \leq -0.02)##.

(b) Exactly negative two percent per annum ##(r_\text{shares} = -0.02)##.

(c) More than or equal to negative two percent per annum ##(r_\text{shares} \geq -0.02)##.

(d) Less than or equal to zero percent per annum ##(r_\text{shares} \leq 0)##.

(e) More than or equal to zero percent per annum ##(r_\text{shares} \geq 0)##.

Question 762  equivalent annual cash flow, no explanation

Radio-Rentals.com offers the Apple iphone 5S smart phone for rent at $12.95 per week paid in advance on a 2 year contract. After renting the phone, you must return it to Radio-Rentals.

Kogan.com offers the Apple iphone 5S smart phone for sale at $699. You estimate that the phone will last for 3 years before it will break and be worthless.

Currently, the effective annual interest rate is 11.351%, the effective monthly interest rate 0.9% and the effective weekly interest rate is 0.207%. Assume that there are exactly 52 weeks per year and 12 months per year.

Find the equivalent annual cost of renting the phone and also buying the phone. The answers below are listed in the same order.

(a) $362.33,   $287.79

(b) $362.33,   $506.29

(c) $516.29,   $506.29

(d) $673.40,   $233.00

(e) $711.67,   $287.79

Question 921  utility, return distribution, log-normal distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, no explanation

Who was the first theorist to propose the idea of ‘expected utility’?

(a) Daniel Bernoulli.

(b) John Larry Kelly Jr.

(c) Henry Allen Latane.

(d) Ole Peters.

(e) Paul Anthony Samuelson.

Question 923  omitted variable bias, CAPM, single factor model, single index model, no explanation

Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the Single Index Model (SIM) are single factor models whose only risk factor is the market portfolio’s return. Say a Taxi company and an Umbrella company are influenced by two factors, the market portfolio return and rainfall. When it rains, both the Taxi and Umbrella companies’ stock prices do well. When there’s no rain, both do poorly. Assume that rainfall risk is a systematic risk that cannot be diversified and that rainfall has zero correlation with the market portfolio’s returns.

Which of the following statements about these two stocks is NOT correct?

The CAPM and SIM:

(a) Betas of the Taxi and Umbrella companies will only measure the companies’ sensitivity to the market portfolio risk factor, not the rainfall factor.

(b) Will over-estimate the Taxi and Umbrella stocks’ systematic variance.

(c) Will over-estimate the Taxi and Umbrella stocks’ diversifiable variance.

(d) Models will show positive correlations between the Taxi and Umbrella stock’s residual (also called idiosyncratic) returns.

Question 932  confidence interval, normal distribution

A stock's returns are normally distributed with a mean of 10% pa and a standard deviation of 20 percentage points pa. What is the 95% confidence interval of returns over the next year? Note that the Z-statistic corresponding to a one-tail:

• 90% normal probability density function is 1.282.
• 95% normal probability density function is 1.645.
• 97.5% normal probability density function is 1.960.

The 95% confidence interval of annual returns is between:

(a) 30% and -10% pa.

(b) 32.9% and -32.9% pa.

(c) 35.64% and -15.64% pa.

(d) 42.9% and -22.9% pa.

(e) 49.2% and -29.2% pa.