Question 50 DDM, stock pricing, inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows
Most listed Australian companies pay dividends twice per year, the 'interim' and 'final' dividends, which are roughly 6 months apart.
You are an equities analyst trying to value the company BHP. You decide to use the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) as a starting point, so you study BHP's dividend history and you find that BHP tends to pay the same interim and final dividend each year, and that both grow by the same rate.
You expect BHP will pay a $0.55 interim dividend in six months and a $0.55 final dividend in one year. You expect each to grow by 4% next year and forever, so the interim and final dividends next year will be $0.572 each, and so on in perpetuity.
Assume BHP's cost of equity is 8% pa. All rates are quoted as nominal effective rates. The dividends are nominal cash flows and the inflation rate is 2.5% pa.
What is the current price of a BHP share?
A company runs a number of slaughterhouses which supply hamburger meat to McDonalds. The company is afraid that live cattle prices will increase over the next year, even though there is widespread belief in the market that they will be stable. What can the company do to hedge against the risk of increasing live cattle prices? Which statement(s) are correct?
(i) buy call options on live cattle.
(ii) buy put options on live cattle.
(iii) sell call options on live cattle.
Select the most correct response:
Question 210 real estate, inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows, income and capital returns
Assume that the Gordon Growth Model (same as the dividend discount model or perpetuity with growth formula) is an appropriate method to value real estate.
An old rule of thumb in the real estate industry is that properties should yield a 5% pa rental return. Some investors also regard property to be as risky as the stock market, therefore property is thought to have a required total return of 9% pa which is the average total return on the stock market including dividends.
Assume that all returns are effective annual rates and they are nominal (not reduced by inflation). Inflation is expected to be 2% pa.
You're considering purchasing an investment property which has a rental yield of 5% pa and you expect it to have the same risk as the stock market. Select the most correct statement about this property.
What is the net present value (NPV) of undertaking a full-time Australian undergraduate business degree as an Australian citizen? Only include the cash flows over the duration of the degree, ignore any benefits or costs of the degree after it's completed.
Assume the following:
- The degree takes 3 years to complete and all students pass all subjects.
- There are 2 semesters per year and 4 subjects per semester.
- University fees per subject per semester are $1,277, paid at the start of each semester. Fees are expected to remain constant in real terms for the next 3 years.
- There are 52 weeks per year.
- The first semester is just about to start (t=0). The first semester lasts for 19 weeks (t=0 to 19).
- The second semester starts immediately afterwards (t=19) and lasts for another 19 weeks (t=19 to 38).
- The summer holidays begin after the second semester ends and last for 14 weeks (t=38 to 52). Then the first semester begins the next year, and so on.
- Working full time at the grocery store instead of studying full-time pays $20/hr and you can work 35 hours per week. Wages are paid at the end of each week and are expected to remain constant in real terms.
- Full-time students can work full-time during the summer holiday at the grocery store for the same rate of $20/hr for 35 hours per week.
- The discount rate is 9.8% pa. All rates and cash flows are real. Inflation is expected to be 3% pa. All rates are effective annual.
The NPV of costs from undertaking the university degree is:
A mature firm has constant expected future earnings and dividends. Both amounts are equal. So earnings and dividends are expected to be equal and unchanging.
Which of the following statements is NOT correct?
A credit card company advertises an interest rate of 18% pa, payable monthly. Which of the following statements about the interest rate is NOT correct? All rates are given to four decimal places.
Alice, Bob, Chris and Delta are traders in the futures market. The following trades occur over a single day in a newly-opened equity index future that matures in one year which the exchange just made available.
1. Alice buys a future from Bob.
2. Chris buys a future from Delta.
3. Bob buys a future from Chris.
These were the only trades made in this equity index future. What was the trading volume and what is the open interest?
One year ago you bought a $1,000,000 house partly funded using a mortgage loan. The loan size was $800,000 and the other $200,000 was your wealth or 'equity' in the house asset.
The interest rate on the home loan was 4% pa.
Over the year, the house produced a net rental yield of 2% pa and a capital gain of 2.5% pa.
Assuming that all cash flows (interest payments and net rental payments) were paid and received at the end of the year, and all rates are given as effective annual rates, what was the total return on your wealth over the past year?
Hint: Remember that wealth in this context is your equity (E) in the house asset (V = D+E) which is funded by the loan (D) and your deposit or equity (E).
Which Australian institution is in charge of monetary policy?
Question 948 VaR, expected shortfall
Below is a historical sample of returns on the S&P500 capital index.
S&P500 Capital Index Daily Returns Ranked from Best to Worst |
||
10,000 trading days from 4th August 1977 to 24 March 2017 based on closing prices. |
||
Rank | Date (DD-MM-YY) |
Continuously compounded daily return (% per day) |
1 | 21-10-87 | 9.23 |
2 | 08-03-83 | 8.97 |
3 | 13-11-08 | 8.3 |
4 | 30-09-08 | 8.09 |
5 | 28-10-08 | 8.01 |
6 | 29-10-87 | 7.28 |
… | … | … |
9980 | 11-12-08 | -5.51 |
9981 | 22-10-08 | -5.51 |
9982 | 08-08-11 | -5.54 |
9983 | 22-09-08 | -5.64 |
9984 | 11-09-86 | -5.69 |
9985 | 30-11-87 | -5.88 |
9986 | 14-04-00 | -5.99 |
9987 | 07-10-98 | -6.06 |
9988 | 08-01-88 | -6.51 |
9989 | 27-10-97 | -6.55 |
9990 | 13-10-89 | -6.62 |
9991 | 15-10-08 | -6.71 |
9992 | 29-09-08 | -6.85 |
9993 | 07-10-08 | -6.91 |
9994 | 14-11-08 | -7.64 |
9995 | 01-12-08 | -7.79 |
9996 | 29-10-08 | -8.05 |
9997 | 26-10-87 | -8.4 |
9998 | 31-08-98 | -8.45 |
9999 | 09-10-08 | -12.9 |
10000 | 19-10-87 | -23.36 |
Mean of all 10,000: | 0.0354 | |
Sample standard deviation of all 10,000: | 1.2062 | |
Sources: Bloomberg and S&P. | ||
Assume that the one-tail Z-statistic corresponding to a probability of 99.9% is exactly 3.09. Which of the following statements is NOT correct? Based on the historical data, the 99.9% daily: