Fight Finance

Question 50  DDM, stock pricing, inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows

Most listed Australian companies pay dividends twice per year, the 'interim' and 'final' dividends, which are roughly 6 months apart.

You are an equities analyst trying to value the company BHP. You decide to use the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) as a starting point, so you study BHP's dividend history and you find that BHP tends to pay the same interim and final dividend each year, and that both grow by the same rate.

You expect BHP will pay a $0.55 interim dividend in six months and a $0.55 final dividend in one year. You expect each to grow by 4% next year and forever, so the interim and final dividends next year will be $0.572 each, and so on in perpetuity.

Assume BHP's cost of equity is 8% pa. All rates are quoted as nominal effective rates. The dividends are nominal cash flows and the inflation rate is 2.5% pa.

What is the current price of a BHP share?

(a) $57.1734

(b) $28.0394

(c) $27.7723

(d) $27.5000

(e) $27.2330

Question 248  CAPM, DDM, income and capital returns

The total return of any asset can be broken down in different ways. One possible way is to use the dividend discount model (or Gordon growth model):

###p_0 = \frac{c_1}{r_\text{total}-r_\text{capital}}###

Which, since ##c_1/p_0## is the income return (##r_\text{income}##), can be expressed as:

###r_\text{total}=r_\text{income}+r_\text{capital}###

So the total return of an asset is the income component plus the capital or price growth component.

Another way to break up total return is to use the Capital Asset Pricing Model:

###r_\text{total}=r_\text{f}+β(r_\text{m}- r_\text{f})###

###r_\text{total}=r_\text{time value}+r_\text{risk premium}###

So the risk free rate is the time value of money and the term ##β(r_\text{m}- r_\text{f})## is the compensation for taking on systematic risk.

Using the above theory and your general knowledge, which of the below equations, if any, are correct?

(I) ##r_\text{income}=r_\text{time value}##

(II) ##r_\text{income}=r_\text{risk premium}##

(III) ##r_\text{capital}=r_\text{time value}##

(IV) ##r_\text{capital}=r_\text{risk premium}##

(V) ##r_\text{income}+r_\text{capital}=r_\text{time value}+r_\text{risk premium}##

Which of the equations are correct?

(a) I, IV and V only.

(b) II, III and V only.

(c) V only.

(d) All are true.

(e) None are true.

Question 353  income and capital returns, inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows, real estate

A residential investment property has an expected nominal total return of 6% pa and nominal capital return of 3% pa.

Inflation is expected to be 2% pa. All rates are given as effective annual rates.

What are the property's expected real total, capital and income returns? The answer choices below are given in the same order.

(a) 3.9216%, 2.9412%, 0.9804%.

(b) 3.9216%, 0.9804%, 2.9412%.

(c) 3.9216%, 0.9804%, 0.9804%.

(d) 1.9804%, 1.0000%, 0.9804%.

(e) 1.9608%, 0.9804%, 0.9804%.

Question 575  inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows

You expect a nominal payment of $100 in 5 years. The real discount rate is 10% pa and the inflation rate is 3% pa. Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

(a) The nominal cash flow of $100 in 5 years is equivalent to a real cash flow of $86.2609 in 5 years. This means that $86.2609 will buy the same amount of goods and services now as $100 will buy in 5 years.

(b) The real discount rate of 10% pa is equivalent to a nominal discount rate of 13.3333% pa.

(c) The nominal price of goods and services will increase by 3% every year.

(d) The real price of goods and services will increase by 3% every year.

(e) The present value of your payment will increase by the nominal discount rate every year.

Question 649  margin call, future

A trader sells a one year futures contract on crude oil. The contract is for the delivery of 1,000 barrels. The current futures price is $38.94 per barrel. The initial margin is $3,410 per contract, and the maintenance margin is $3,100 per contract.

What is the smallest price change that would lead to a margin call for the seller?

(a) A price rise of $0.087571 per barrel.

(b) A price rise of $0.31 per barrel.

(c) A price rise of $3.41 per barrel.

(d) A price rise of $3.54 per barrel.

(e) A price rise of $3.894 per barrel.

Question 651  future

Which of the following statements about futures is NOT correct?

(a) Futures quotes displayed on the exchange change continuously.

(b) Futures prices written in existing futures contracts are fixed, they do not change since they’re written in the legal contract.

(c) One year futures quotes equal the market’s expectation of the underlying asset price in one year. For this reason futures markets are a good predictor of the underlying asset prices.

(d) Futures prices can be calculated based on the spot price of the underlying asset compounded forward at the total opportunity cost of capital, less any storage costs and plus any income yields such as dividends.

(e) The futures price quote and the underlying asset's spot price will converge over time. At the future's expiry they’ll be equal.

Question 814  expected and historical returns

If future required returns rise, and future expected cash flows remain the same, then prices will , or remain the ?

Question 855  cash cycle, accounting ratio

The below diagram shows a firm’s cash cycle.

Which of the following statements about companies’ cash cycle is NOT correct?

(a) The cash cycle is typically measured in days.

(b) The lower the cash cycle, the better.

(c) The cash cycle represents the time that money is invested or ‘tied up’ in inventory.

(d) Companies should avoid negative cash cycles.

(e) The cash cycle is the time between the inventory payment date to the supplier and cash receipt date from the customer.

Question 876  foreign exchange rate, forward foreign exchange rate, cross currency interest rate parity

Suppose the yield curve in the USA and Germany is flat and the:

• USD federal funds rate at the Federal Reserve is 1% pa;
• EUR deposit facility at the European Central Bank is -0.4% pa (note the negative sign);
• Spot EUR exchange rate is 1 USD per EUR;
• One year forward EUR exchange rate is 1.011 USD per EUR.

You suspect that there’s an arbitrage opportunity. Which one of the following statements about the potential arbitrage opportunity is NOT correct?

(a) Right now, borrow USD in America, convert it into EUR at the spot, lend it in Germany and lock in to buy USD and sell EUR forward one year. One year later, withdraw the EUR, convert it into USD and pay back the USD loan.

(b) American debt may be under-priced, buy it.

(c) German debt may be over-priced, sell it.

(d) The spot EUR may be over-priced compared to the USD, sell the EUR now.

(e) The forward EUR may be under-priced compared to the USD, lock in to buy the EUR in one year.

Question 892  foreign exchange reserve, foreign exchange rate, no explanation

The Chinese central bank has the largest amount of foreign currency reserves.

What could the large amounts of foreign exchange reserves held by the Chinese government be used for in a currency crisis? China's currency is called the Renminbi (RMB) or Yuan (CNY). In a Chinese currency crisis the Chinese government is likely to use its FX reserves to:

(a) Buy RMB.

(b) Buy USD.

(c) Buy EUR.

(d) Buy JPY.

(e) Sell RMB.