Fight Finance

Question 50  DDM, stock pricing, inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows

Most listed Australian companies pay dividends twice per year, the 'interim' and 'final' dividends, which are roughly 6 months apart.

You are an equities analyst trying to value the company BHP. You decide to use the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) as a starting point, so you study BHP's dividend history and you find that BHP tends to pay the same interim and final dividend each year, and that both grow by the same rate.

You expect BHP will pay a $0.55 interim dividend in six months and a $0.55 final dividend in one year. You expect each to grow by 4% next year and forever, so the interim and final dividends next year will be $0.572 each, and so on in perpetuity.

Assume BHP's cost of equity is 8% pa. All rates are quoted as nominal effective rates. The dividends are nominal cash flows and the inflation rate is 2.5% pa.

What is the current price of a BHP share?

(a) $57.1734

(b) $28.0394

(c) $27.7723

(d) $27.5000

(e) $27.2330

Question 306  risk, standard deviation

Let the standard deviation of returns for a share per month be ##\sigma_\text{monthly}##.

What is the formula for the standard deviation of the share's returns per year ##(\sigma_\text{yearly})##?

Assume that returns are independently and identically distributed (iid) so they have zero auto correlation, meaning that if the return was higher than average today, it does not indicate that the return tomorrow will be higher or lower than average.

(a) ##\sigma_\text{yearly} = \sigma_\text{monthly}##

(b) ##\sigma_\text{yearly} = \sigma_\text{monthly} \times 12##

(c) ##\sigma_\text{yearly} = \sigma_\text{monthly} \times 144##

(d) ##\sigma_\text{yearly} = \sigma_\text{monthly} \times \sqrt{12}##

(e) ##\sigma_\text{yearly} = \sigma_\text{monthly} \times {12}^{1/3}##

Question 337  capital structure, interest tax shield, leverage, real and nominal returns and cash flows, multi stage growth model

A fast-growing firm is suitable for valuation using a multi-stage growth model.

It's nominal unlevered cash flow from assets (##CFFA_U##) at the end of this year (t=1) is expected to be $1 million. After that it is expected to grow at a rate of:

• 12% pa for the next two years (from t=1 to 3),
• 5% over the fourth year (from t=3 to 4), and
• -1% forever after that (from t=4 onwards). Note that this is a negative one percent growth rate.

Assume that:

• The nominal WACC after tax is 9.5% pa and is not expected to change.
• The nominal WACC before tax is 10% pa and is not expected to change.
• The firm has a target debt-to-equity ratio that it plans to maintain.
• The inflation rate is 3% pa.
• All rates are given as nominal effective annual rates.

What is the levered value of this fast growing firm's assets?

(a) $13.19m

(b) $12.36m

(c) $11.77m

(d) $11.53m

(e) $11.20m

Question 412  enterprise value, no explanation

A large proportion of a levered firm's assets is cash held at the bank. The firm is financed with half equity and half debt.

Which of the following statements about this firm's enterprise value (EV) and total asset value (V) is NOT correct?

(a) The firm's enterprise value is less than its total asset value.

(b) The firm's enterprise value beta is higher than the total asset value beta.

(c) The enterprise value's weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is higher than the total asset value's WACC.

(d) The enterprise value divided by the number of shares equals the share price.

(e) The total asset value less the market value of debt, all divided by the number of shares, equals the share price.

Question 438  option, no explanation

Two put options are exactly the same, but one matures in one year and the other matures in two years. Which option would you expect to have the higher price, the option which matures or , or should they have the price?

Question 493  PE ratio

A firm has 2m shares and a market capitalisation of equity of $30m. The firm just announced earnings of $5m and paid an annual dividend of $0.75 per share.

What is the firm's (backward looking) price/earnings (PE) ratio?

(a) 2.5

(b) 3

(c) 6

(d) 15

(e) 20

Question 635  continuously compounding rate

A $100 stock has a continuously compounded expected total return of 10% pa. Its dividend yield is 2% pa with continuous compounding. What do you expect its price to be in 2.5 years?

(a) $134.985881

(b) $128.402542

(c) $126.905871

(d) $122.140276

(e) $121.215844

Question 698  utility, risk aversion, utility function

Mr Blue, Miss Red and Mrs Green are people with different utility functions. Which of the statements about the 3 utility functions is NOT correct?

(a) Neither Miss Red nor Mrs Green would appear rational to an economist.

(b) Mrs Green is satiated when she has $25 of wealth. That is her bliss point.

(c) Mrs Green is risk loving when she has between zero and $25 of wealth, same as Mr Blue.

(d) Mrs Green is risk averse when she has between $25 and $50 of wealth.

(e) Mrs Green is risk loving when she has between $50 and $100 of wealth, same as Mr Blue.

Question 721  mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate

Fred owns some Commonwealth Bank (CBA) shares. He has calculated CBA’s monthly returns for each month in the past 20 years using this formula:

###r_\text{t monthly}=\ln⁡ \left( \dfrac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} \right)###

He then took the arithmetic average and found it to be 1% per month using this formula:

###\bar{r}_\text{monthly}= \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( r_\text{t monthly} \right)} }{T} =0.01=1\% \text{ per month}###

He also found the standard deviation of these monthly returns which was 5% per month:

###\sigma_\text{monthly} = \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( \left( r_\text{t monthly} - \bar{r}_\text{monthly} \right)^2 \right)} }{T} =0.05=5\%\text{ per month}###

Which of the below statements about Fred’s CBA shares is NOT correct? Assume that the past historical average return is the true population average of future expected returns.

(a) The returns ##r_\text{t monthly}## are continuously compounded monthly returns and are likely to be normally distributed, so the mean, median and mode of these continuously compounded returns are all equal to 1% per month.

(b) The annualised average continuously compounded return is ##\bar{r}_\text{cc annual}=12×0.01=0.1=12\%\text{ pa}##. The annualised standard deviation is ##\sigma_\text{annual} = \sqrt{12}×0.05=0.173205081=17.32\%\text{ pa}##.

(c) Over the next 10 years the mean, median and mode continuously compounded 10 year returns will all equal ##0.01 \times 12 \times 10 = 120\%##.

(d) Over the next 10 years the expected mean gross discrete 10 year return is ##e^{(0.01 - 0.05^2/2)×12×10} = 2.857651118## and the median gross discrete 10 year return is ##e^{(0.01 + 0.05^2/2)×12×10}=3.857425531##.

(e) If the current price of the CBA shares is $75, then in 10 years they’re expected to have a mean value of ##75×e^{(0.01 + 0.05^2/2)×12×10} = 289.3069148## and a median value of ##75×e^{0.01×12×10}=249.0087692##.

Question 822  option, sunk cost, no explanation

When does a European option's last-traded market price become a sunk cost?

(a) immediately after the option purchase date.

(b) After the option matures but only if it is exercised.

(c) After the option matures but only if it lapses and is not exercised.

(d) After the option matures, regardless of whether it is exercised or not.

(e) The option price is never a sunk cost.