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Question 569  personal tax

The average weekly earnings of an Australian adult worker before tax was $1,542.40 per week in November 2014 according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Therefore average annual earnings before tax were $80,204.80 assuming 52 weeks per year. Personal income tax rates published by the Australian Tax Office are reproduced for the 2014-2015 financial year in the table below:

Taxable income Tax on this income
0 – $18,200 Nil
$18,201 – $37,000 19c for each $1 over $18,200
$37,001 – $80,000 $3,572 plus 32.5c for each $1 over $37,000
$80,001 – $180,000 $17,547 plus 37c for each $1 over $80,000
$180,001 and over $54,547 plus 45c for each $1 over $180,000
 

The above rates do not include the Medicare levy of 2%. Exclude the Medicare levy from your calculations

How much personal income tax would you have to pay per year if you earned $80,204.80 per annum before-tax?



Question 624  franking credit, personal tax on dividends, imputation tax system, no explanation

Which of the following statements about Australian franking credits is NOT correct? Franking credits:



Question 443  corporate financial decision theory, investment decision, financing decision, working capital decision, payout policy

Business people make lots of important decisions. Which of the following is the most important long term decision?



Question 447  payout policy, corporate financial decision theory

Payout policy is most closely related to which part of a business?



Question 768  accounting terminology, book and market values, no explanation

Accountants and finance professionals have lots of names for the same things which can be quite confusing.

Which of the following groups of items are NOT synonyms?



Question 737  financial statement, balance sheet, income statement

Where can a publicly listed firm's book value of equity be found? It can be sourced from the company's:



Question 19  fully amortising loan, APR

You want to buy an apartment priced at $300,000. You have saved a deposit of $30,000. The bank has agreed to lend you the $270,000 as a fully amortising loan with a term of 25 years. The interest rate is 12% pa and is not expected to change.

What will be your monthly payments? Remember that mortgage loan payments are paid in arrears (at the end of the month).



Question 57  interest only loan

You just borrowed $400,000 in the form of a 25 year interest-only mortgage with monthly payments of $3,000 per month. The interest rate is 9% pa which is not expected to change.

You actually plan to pay more than the required interest payment. You plan to pay $3,300 in mortgage payments every month, which your mortgage lender allows. These extra payments will reduce the principal and the minimum interest payment required each month.

At the maturity of the mortgage, what will be the principal? That is, after the last (300th) interest payment of $3,300 in 25 years, how much will be owing on the mortgage?



Question 265  APR, Annuity

On his 20th birthday, a man makes a resolution. He will deposit $30 into a bank account at the end of every month starting from now, which is the start of the month. So the first payment will be in one month. He will write in his will that when he dies the money in the account should be given to charity.

The bank account pays interest at 6% pa compounding monthly, which is not expected to change.

If the man lives for another 60 years, how much money will be in the bank account if he dies just after making his last (720th) payment?



Question 288  Annuity

There are many ways to write the ordinary annuity formula.

Which of the following is NOT equal to the ordinary annuity formula?



Question 499  NPV, Annuity

Some countries' interest rates are so low that they're zero.

If interest rates are 0% pa and are expected to stay at that level for the foreseeable future, what is the most that you would be prepared to pay a bank now if it offered to pay you $10 at the end of every year for the next 5 years?

In other words, what is the present value of five $10 payments at time 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 if interest rates are 0% pa?



Question 530  Annuity, annuity due, no explanation

You are promised 20 payments of $100, where the first payment is immediate (t=0) and the last is at the end of the 19th year (t=19). The effective annual discount rate is ##r##.

Which of the following equations does NOT give the correct present value of these 20 payments?



Question 255  bond pricing

In these tough economic times, central banks around the world have cut interest rates so low that they are practically zero. In some countries, government bond yields are also very close to zero.

A three year government bond with a face value of $100 and a coupon rate of 2% pa paid semi-annually was just issued at a yield of 0%. What is the price of the bond?



Question 616  idiom, debt terminology, bond pricing

"Buy low, sell high" is a phrase commonly heard in financial markets. It states that traders should try to buy assets at low prices and sell at high prices.

Traders in the fixed-coupon bond markets often quote promised bond yields rather than prices. Fixed-coupon bond traders should try to:



Question 11  bond pricing

For a price of $100, Vera will sell you a 2 year bond paying semi-annual coupons of 10% pa. The face value of the bond is $100. Other bonds with similar risk, maturity and coupon characteristics trade at a yield of 8% pa.

Would you like to her bond or politely ?


Question 552  bond pricing, income and capital returns

An investor bought a 10 year 2.5% pa fixed coupon government bond priced at par. The face value is $100. Coupons are paid semi-annually and the next one is in 6 months.

Six months later, just after the coupon at that time was paid, yields suddenly and unexpectedly fell to 2% pa. Note that all yields above are given as APR's compounding semi-annually.

What was the bond investors' historical total return over that first 6 month period, given as an effective semi-annual rate?



Question 519  DDM

A stock is just about to pay a dividend of $1 tonight. Future annual dividends are expected to grow by 2% pa. The next dividend of $1 will be paid tonight, and the year after that the dividend will be $1.02 (=1*(1+0.02)^1), and a year later 1.0404 (=1*(1+0.04)^2) and so on forever.

Its required total return is 10% pa. The total required return and growth rate of dividends are given as effective annual rates.

Calculate the current stock price.



Question 528  DDM, income and capital returns

The perpetuity with growth formula, also known as the dividend discount model (DDM) or Gordon growth model, is appropriate for valuing a company's shares. ##P_0## is the current share price, ##C_1## is next year's expected dividend, ##r## is the total required return and ##g## is the expected growth rate of the dividend.

###P_0=\dfrac{C_1}{r-g}###

The below graph shows the expected future price path of the company's shares. Which of the following statements about the graph is NOT correct?

Saw tooth graph of stock price path



Question 264  DDM

The following equation is the Dividend Discount Model, also known as the 'Gordon Growth Model' or the 'Perpetuity with growth' equation.

###P_0=\frac{d_1}{r-g}###

A stock pays dividends annually. It just paid a dividend, but the next dividend (##d_1##) will be paid in one year.

According to the DDM, what is the correct formula for the expected price of the stock in 2.5 years?



Question 28  DDM, income and capital returns

The following equation is the Dividend Discount Model, also known as the 'Gordon Growth Model' or the 'Perpetuity with growth' equation.

### P_{0} = \frac{C_1}{r_{\text{eff}} - g_{\text{eff}}} ###

What would you call the expression ## C_1/P_0 ##?



Question 201  DDM, income and capital returns

The following is the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) used to price stocks:

###P_0=\dfrac{C_1}{r-g}###

If the assumptions of the DDM hold and the stock is fairly priced, which one of the following statements is NOT correct? The long term expected:



Question 40  DDM, perpetuity with growth

A stock is expected to pay the following dividends:

Cash Flows of a Stock
Time (yrs) 0 1 2 3 4 ...
Dividend ($) 0.00 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 ...
 

After year 4, the annual dividend will grow in perpetuity at 5% pa, so;

  • the dividend at t=5 will be $1.15(1+0.05),
  • the dividend at t=6 will be $1.15(1+0.05)^2, and so on.

The required return on the stock is 10% pa. Both the growth rate and required return are given as effective annual rates.

What will be the price of the stock in three and a half years (t = 3.5)?



Question 763  multi stage growth model, DDM

A stock is expected to pay its first dividend of $20 in 3 years (t=3), which it will continue to pay for the next nine years, so there will be ten $20 payments altogether with the last payment in year 12 (t=12).

From the thirteenth year onward, the dividend is expected to be 4% more than the previous year, forever. So the dividend in the thirteenth year (t=13) will be $20.80, then $21.632 in year 14, and so on forever. The required return of the stock is 10% pa. All rates are effective annual rates. Calculate the current (t=0) stock price.



Question 50  DDM, stock pricing, inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows

Most listed Australian companies pay dividends twice per year, the 'interim' and 'final' dividends, which are roughly 6 months apart.

You are an equities analyst trying to value the company BHP. You decide to use the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) as a starting point, so you study BHP's dividend history and you find that BHP tends to pay the same interim and final dividend each year, and that both grow by the same rate.

You expect BHP will pay a $0.55 interim dividend in six months and a $0.55 final dividend in one year. You expect each to grow by 4% next year and forever, so the interim and final dividends next year will be $0.572 each, and so on in perpetuity.

Assume BHP's cost of equity is 8% pa. All rates are quoted as nominal effective rates. The dividends are nominal cash flows and the inflation rate is 2.5% pa.

What is the current price of a BHP share?



Question 535  DDM, real and nominal returns and cash flows, stock pricing

You are an equities analyst trying to value the equity of the Australian telecoms company Telstra, with ticker TLS. In Australia, listed companies like Telstra tend to pay dividends every 6 months. The payment around August is called the final dividend and the payment around February is called the interim dividend. Both occur annually.

  • Today is mid-March 2015.
  • TLS's last interim dividend of $0.15 was one month ago in mid-February 2015.
  • TLS's last final dividend of $0.15 was seven months ago in mid-August 2014.

Judging by TLS's dividend history and prospects, you estimate that the nominal dividend growth rate will be 1% pa. Assume that TLS's total nominal cost of equity is 6% pa. The dividends are nominal cash flows and the inflation rate is 2.5% pa. All rates are quoted as nominal effective annual rates. Assume that each month is exactly one twelfth (1/12) of a year, so you can ignore the number of days in each month.

Calculate the current TLS share price.



Question 333  DDM, time calculation

When using the dividend discount model, care must be taken to avoid using a nominal dividend growth rate that exceeds the country's nominal GDP growth rate. Otherwise the firm is forecast to take over the country since it grows faster than the average business forever.

Suppose a firm's nominal dividend grows at 10% pa forever, and nominal GDP growth is 5% pa forever. The firm's total dividends are currently $1 billion (t=0). The country's GDP is currently $1,000 billion (t=0).

In approximately how many years will the company's total dividends be as large as the country's GDP?



Question 750  PE ratio, Multiples valuation

Itau Unibanco is a major listed bank in Brazil with a market capitalisation of equity equal to BRL 85.744 billion, EPS of BRL 3.96 and 2.97 billion shares on issue.

Banco Bradesco is another major bank with total earnings of BRL 8.77 billion and 2.52 billion shares on issue.

Estimate Banco Bradesco's current share price using a price-earnings multiples approach assuming that Itau Unibanco is a comparable firm.

Note that BRL is the Brazilian Real, their currency. Figures sourced from Google Finance on the market close of the BVMF on 24 July 2015.



Question 492  capital budgeting, opportunity cost, sunk cost

A man has taken a day off from his casual painting job to relax.

It's the end of the day and he's thinking about the hours that he could have spent working (in the past) which are now:



Question 37  IRR

If a project's net present value (NPV) is zero, then its internal rate of return (IRR) will be:



Question 190  pay back period

A project has the following cash flows:

Project Cash Flows
Time (yrs) Cash flow ($)
0 -400
1 0
2 500
 

What is the payback period of the project in years?

Normally cash flows are assumed to happen at the given time. But here, assume that the cash flows are received smoothly over the year. So the $500 at time 2 is actually earned smoothly from t=1 to t=2.



Question 251  NPV

You have $100,000 in the bank. The bank pays interest at 10% pa, given as an effective annual rate.

You wish to consume an equal amount now (t=0) and in one year (t=1) and have nothing left in the bank at the end (t=1).

How much can you consume at each time?



Question 96  bond pricing, zero coupon bond, term structure of interest rates, forward interest rate

An Australian company just issued two bonds paying semi-annual coupons:

  • 1 year zero coupon bond at a yield of 8% pa, and a
  • 2 year zero coupon bond at a yield of 10% pa.

What is the forward rate on the company's debt from years 1 to 2? Give your answer as an APR compounding every 6 months, which is how the above bond yields are quoted.



Question 572  bond pricing, zero coupon bond, term structure of interest rates, expectations hypothesis, forward interest rate, yield curve

In the below term structure of interest rates equation, all rates are effective annual yields and the numbers in subscript represent the years that the yields are measured over:

###(1+r_{0-3})^3 = (1+r_{0-1})(1+r_{1-2})(1+r_{2-3}) ###

Which of the following statements is NOT correct?



Question 693  boot strapping zero coupon yield, forward interest rate, term structure of interest rates

Information about three risk free Government bonds is given in the table below.

Federal Treasury Bond Data
Maturity Yield to maturity Coupon rate Face value Price
(years) (pa, compounding semi-annually) (pa, paid semi-annually) ($) ($)
0.5 3% 4% 100 100.4926
1 4% 4% 100 100.0000
1.5 5% 4% 100 98.5720
 

 

Based on the above government bonds' yields to maturity, which of the below statements about the spot zero rates and forward zero rates is NOT correct?



Question 784  boot strapping zero coupon yield, forward interest rate, term structure of interest rates

Information about three risk free Government bonds is given in the table below.

Federal Treasury Bond Data
Maturity Yield to maturity Coupon rate Face value Price
(years) (pa, compounding annually) (pa, paid annually) ($) ($)
1 0% 2% 100 102
2 1% 2% 100 101.9703951
3 2% 2% 100 100
 

 

Based on the above government bonds' yields to maturity, which of the below statements about the spot zero rates and forward zero rates is NOT correct?



Question 81  risk, correlation, diversification

Stock A and B's returns have a correlation of 0.3. Which statement is NOT correct?



Question 111  portfolio risk, correlation

All things remaining equal, the variance of a portfolio of two positively-weighted stocks rises as:



Question 73  portfolio risk, standard deviation

Portfolio Details
Stock Expected
return
Standard
deviation
Covariance ##(\sigma_{A,B})## Beta Dollars
invested
A 0.2 0.4 0.12 0.5 40
B 0.3 0.8 1.5 80
 

What is the standard deviation (not variance) of the above portfolio? Note that the stocks' covariance is given, not correlation.



Question 558  portfolio weights, portfolio return, short selling

An investor wants to make a portfolio of two stocks A and B with a target expected portfolio return of 16% pa.

  • Stock A has an expected return of 8% pa.
  • Stock B has an expected return of 12% pa.

What portfolio weights should the investor have in stocks A and B respectively?



Question 931  confidence interval, normal distribution

A stock's returns are normally distributed with a mean of 10% pa and a standard deviation of 20 percentage points pa. What is the 90% confidence interval of returns over the next year? Note that the Z-statistic corresponding to a one-tail:

  • 90% normal probability density function is 1.282.
  • 95% normal probability density function is 1.645.
  • 97.5% normal probability density function is 1.960.

The 90% confidence interval of annual returns is between:



Question 933  confidence interval, normal distribution

A stock has an expected return of 10% pa and you're 90% sure that over the next year, the return will be between -15% and 35%. The stock's returns are normally distributed. Note that the Z-statistic corresponding to a one-tail:

  • 90% normal probability density function is 1.282.
  • 95% normal probability density function is 1.645.
  • 97.5% normal probability density function is 1.960.

What is the stock’s standard deviation of returns in percentage points per annum (pp pa)?



Question 282  expected and historical returns, income and capital returns

You're the boss of an investment bank's equities research team. Your five analysts are each trying to find the expected total return over the next year of shares in a mining company. The mining firm:

  • Is regarded as a mature company since it's quite stable in size and was floated around 30 years ago. It is not a high-growth company;
  • Share price is very sensitive to changes in the price of the market portfolio, economic growth, the exchange rate and commodities prices. Due to this, its standard deviation of total returns is much higher than that of the market index;
  • Experienced tough times in the last 10 years due to unexpected falls in commodity prices.
  • Shares are traded in an active liquid market.
Your team of analysts present their findings, and everyone has different views. While there's no definitive true answer, whose calculation of the expected total return is the most plausible? Assume that:

  • The analysts' source data is correct and true, but their inferences might be wrong;
  • All returns and yields are given as effective annual nominal rates.



Question 90  CAPM, risk

According to the theory of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), total variance can be broken into two components, systematic variance and idiosyncratic variance. Which of the following events would be considered the most diversifiable according to the theory of the CAPM?



Question 673  CAPM, beta, expected and historical returns

A stock has a beta of 1.5. The market's expected total return is 10% pa and the risk free rate is 5% pa, both given as effective annual rates.

In the last 5 minutes, bad economic news was released showing a higher chance of recession. Over this time the share market fell by 1%. The risk free rate was unchanged.

What do you think was the stock's historical return over the last 5 minutes, given as an effective 5 minute rate?



Question 674  CAPM, beta, expected and historical returns

A stock has a beta of 1.5. The market's expected total return is 10% pa and the risk free rate is 5% pa, both given as effective annual rates.

Over the last year, bad economic news was released showing a higher chance of recession. Over this time the share market fell by 1%. So ##r_{m} = (P_{0} - P_{-1})/P_{-1} = -0.01##, where the current time is zero and one year ago is time -1. The risk free rate was unchanged.

What do you think was the stock's historical return over the last year, given as an effective annual rate?



Question 408  leverage, portfolio beta, portfolio risk, real estate, CAPM

You just bought a house worth $1,000,000. You financed it with an $800,000 mortgage loan and a deposit of $200,000.

You estimate that:

  • The house has a beta of 1;
  • The mortgage loan has a beta of 0.2.

What is the beta of the equity (the $200,000 deposit) that you have in your house?

Also, if the risk free rate is 5% pa and the market portfolio's return is 10% pa, what is the expected return on equity in your house? Ignore taxes, assume that all cash flows (interest payments and rent) were paid and received at the end of the year, and all rates are effective annual rates.



Question 809  Markowitz portfolio theory, CAPM, Jensens alpha, CML, systematic and idiosyncratic risk

A graph of assets’ expected returns ##(\mu)## versus standard deviations ##(\sigma)## is given in the graph below. The CML is the capital market line.

Image of CML graph

Which of the following statements about this graph, Markowitz portfolio theory and the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) theory is NOT correct?



Question 810  CAPM, systematic and idiosyncratic risk, market efficiency

Examine the graphs below. Assume that asset A is a single stock. Which of the following statements is NOT correct? Asset A:

Image of CML graph



Question 71  CAPM, risk

Stock A has a beta of 0.5 and stock B has a beta of 1. Which statement is NOT correct?



Question 301  leverage, capital structure, real estate

Your friend just bought a house for $1,000,000. He financed it using a $900,000 mortgage loan and a deposit of $100,000.

In the context of residential housing and mortgages, the 'equity' or 'net wealth' tied up in a house is the value of the house less the value of the mortgage loan. Assuming that your friend's only asset is his house, his net wealth is $100,000.

If house prices suddenly fall by 15%, what would be your friend's percentage change in net wealth?

Assume that:

  • No income (rent) was received from the house during the short time over which house prices fell.
  • Your friend will not declare bankruptcy, he will always pay off his debts.



Question 95  interest tax shield

The equations for Net Income (NI, also known as Earnings or Net Profit After Tax) and Cash Flow From Assets (CFFA, also known as Free Cash Flow to the Firm) per year are:

###NI=(Rev-COGS-FC-Depr-IntExp).(1-t_c)###

###CFFA=NI+Depr-CapEx - \varDelta NWC+IntExp###

For a firm with debt, what is the formula for the present value of interest tax shields if the tax shields occur in perpetuity?

You may assume:

  • the value of debt (D) is constant through time,
  • The cost of debt and the yield on debt are equal and given by ##r_D##.
  • the appropriate rate to discount interest tax shields is ##r_D##.
  • ##\text{IntExp}=D.r_D##



Question 206  CFFA, interest expense, interest tax shield

Interest expense (IntExp) is an important part of a company's income statement (or 'profit and loss' or 'statement of financial performance').

How does an accountant calculate the annual interest expense of a fixed-coupon bond that has a liquid secondary market? Select the most correct answer:

Annual interest expense is equal to:



Question 941  negative gearing, leverage, capital structure, interest tax shield, real estate

Last year, two friends Lev and Nolev each bought similar investment properties for $1 million. Both earned net rents of $30,000 pa over the past year. They funded their purchases in different ways:

  • Lev used $200,000 of his own money and borrowed $800,000 from the bank in the form of an interest-only loan with an interest rate of 5% pa.
  • Nolev used $1,000,000 of his own money, he has no mortgage loan on his property.

Both Lev and Nolev also work in high-paying jobs and are subject personal marginal tax rates of 45%.

Which of the below statements about the past year is NOT correct?



Question 766  CFFA, WACC, interest tax shield, DDM

Use the below information to value a levered company with constant annual perpetual cash flows from assets. The next cash flow will be generated in one year from now, so a perpetuity can be used to value this firm. Both the operating and firm free cash flows are constant (but not equal to each other).

Data on a Levered Firm with Perpetual Cash Flows
Item abbreviation Value Item full name
##\text{OFCF}## $100m Operating free cash flow
##\text{FFCF or CFFA}## $112m Firm free cash flow or cash flow from assets (includes interest tax shields)
##g## 0% pa Growth rate of OFCF and FFCF
##\text{WACC}_\text{BeforeTax}## 7% pa Weighted average cost of capital before tax
##\text{WACC}_\text{AfterTax}## 6.25% pa Weighted average cost of capital after tax
##r_\text{D}## 5% pa Cost of debt
##r_\text{EL}## 9% pa Cost of levered equity
##D/V_L## 50% pa Debt to assets ratio, where the asset value includes tax shields
##t_c## 30% Corporate tax rate
 

 

What is the value of the levered firm including interest tax shields?



Question 772  interest tax shield, capital structure, leverage

A firm issues debt and uses the funds to buy back equity. Assume that there are no costs of financial distress or transactions costs. Which of the following statements about interest tax shields is NOT correct?



Question 946  stock split, bonus issue, stock dividend

A 1-for-4 bonus issue is equivalent to a 4-for-1 stock split or a 25% stock dividend. or ?


Question 625  dividend re-investment plan, capital raising

Which of the following statements about dividend re-investment plans (DRP's) is NOT correct?



Question 165  DDM, PE ratio, payout ratio

For certain shares, the forward-looking Price-Earnings Ratio (##P_0/EPS_1##) is equal to the inverse of the share's total expected return (##1/r_\text{total}##). For what shares is this true?

Use the general accounting definition of 'payout ratio' which is dividends per share (DPS) divided by earnings per share (EPS) and assume that all cash flows, earnings and rates are real rather than nominal.

A company's forward-looking PE ratio will be the inverse of its total expected return on equity when it has a:



Question 364  PE ratio, Multiples valuation

Which firms tend to have high forward-looking price-earnings (PE) ratios?



Question 457  PE ratio, Multiples valuation

Which firms tend to have low forward-looking price-earnings (PE) ratios? Only consider firms with positive PE ratios.



Question 455  income and capital returns, payout policy, DDM, market efficiency

A fairly priced unlevered firm plans to pay a dividend of $1 next year (t=1) which is expected to grow by 3% pa every year after that. The firm's required return on equity is 8% pa.

The firm is thinking about reducing its future dividend payments by 10% so that it can use the extra cash to invest in more projects which are expected to return 8% pa, and have the same risk as the existing projects. Therefore, next year's dividend will be $0.90. No new equity or debt will be issued to fund the new projects, they'll all be funded by the cut in dividends.

What will be the stock's new annual capital return (proportional increase in price per year) if the change in payout policy goes ahead?

Assume that payout policy is irrelevant to firm value (so there's no signalling effects) and that all rates are effective annual rates.



Question 630  mispriced asset, NPV, DDM, market efficiency

A company advertises an investment costing $1,000 which they say is underpriced. They say that it has an expected total return of 15% pa, but a required return of only 10% pa. Of the 15% pa total expected return, the dividend yield is expected to always be 7% pa and rest is the capital yield.

Assuming that the company's statements are correct, what is the NPV of buying the investment if the 15% total return lasts for the next 100 years (t=0 to 100), then reverts to 10% after that time? Also, what is the NPV of the investment if the 15% return lasts forever?

In both cases, assume that the required return of 10% remains constant, the dividends can only be re-invested at 10% pa and all returns are given as effective annual rates.

The answer choices below are given in the same order (15% for 100 years, and 15% forever):



Question 780  mispriced asset, NPV, DDM, market efficiency, no explanation

A company advertises an investment costing $1,000 which they say is under priced. They say that it has an expected total return of 15% pa, but a required return of only 10% pa. Of the 15% pa total expected return, the dividend yield is expected to be 4% pa and the capital yield 11% pa. Assume that the company's statements are correct.

What is the NPV of buying the investment if the 15% total return lasts for the next 100 years (t=0 to 100), then reverts to 10% after that time? Also, what is the NPV of the investment if the 15% return lasts forever?

In both cases, assume that the required return of 10% remains constant, the dividends can only be re-invested at 10% pa and all returns are given as effective annual rates. The answer choices below are given in the same order (15% for 100 years, and 15% forever):



Question 932  confidence interval, normal distribution

A stock's returns are normally distributed with a mean of 10% pa and a standard deviation of 20 percentage points pa. What is the 95% confidence interval of returns over the next year? Note that the Z-statistic corresponding to a one-tail:

  • 90% normal probability density function is 1.282.
  • 95% normal probability density function is 1.645.
  • 97.5% normal probability density function is 1.960.

The 95% confidence interval of annual returns is between: