**Question 58** NPV, inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows, Annuity

A project to build a toll bridge will take two years to complete, costing three payments of $100 million at the start of each year for the next three years, that is at t=0, 1 and 2.

After completion, the toll bridge will yield a constant $50 million at the end of each year for the next 10 years. So the first payment will be at t=3 and the last at t=12. After the last payment at t=12, the bridge will be given to the government.

The required return of the project is 21% pa given as an effective annual **nominal** rate.

All cash flows are **real** and the expected inflation rate is 10% pa given as an effective annual rate. Ignore taxes.

The Net Present Value is:

A zero coupon bond that matures in **6 months** has a face value of $1,000.

The firm that issued this bond is trying to forecast its income statement for the **year**. It needs to calculate the interest expense of the bond this year.

The bond is highly illiquid and hasn't traded on the market. But the finance department have assessed the bond's fair value to be $950 and this is its book value right now at the start of the year.

Assume that:

- the firm uses the 'effective interest method' to calculate interest expense.
- the market value of the bond is the same as the book value.
- the firm is only interested in this bond's interest expense. Do not include the interest expense for a new bond issued to refinance the current one, as would normally happen.

What will be the interest expense of the bond this year for the purpose of forecasting the income statement?

You just signed up for a 30 year **fully amortising** mortgage loan with monthly payments of $2,000 per month. The interest rate is 9% pa which is not expected to change.

How much did you borrow? After 5 years, how much will be owing on the mortgage? The interest rate is still 9% and is not expected to change.

There are many different ways to value a firm's assets. Which of the following will **NOT** give the correct market value of a levered firm's assets ##(V_L)##? Assume that:

- The firm is financed by listed common stock and vanilla annual fixed coupon bonds, which are both traded in a liquid market.
- The bonds' yield is equal to the coupon rate, so the bonds are issued at par. The yield curve is flat and yields are not expected to change. When bonds mature they will be rolled over by issuing the same number of new bonds with the same expected yield and coupon rate, and so on forever.
- Tax rates on the dividends and capital gains received by investors are equal, and capital gains tax is paid every year, even on unrealised gains regardless of when the asset is sold.
- There is no re-investment of the firm's cash back into the business. All of the firm's excess cash flow is paid out as dividends so real growth is zero.
- The firm operates in a mature industry with zero real growth.
- All cash flows and rates in the below equations are real (not nominal) and are expected to be stable forever. Therefore the perpetuity equation with no growth is suitable for valuation.

Where:

###r_\text{WACC before tax} = r_D.\frac{D}{V_L} + r_{EL}.\frac{E_L}{V_L} = \text{Weighted average cost of capital before tax}### ###r_\text{WACC after tax} = r_D.(1-t_c).\frac{D}{V_L} + r_{EL}.\frac{E_L}{V_L} = \text{Weighted average cost of capital after tax}### ###NI_L=(Rev-COGS-FC-Depr-\mathbf{IntExp}).(1-t_c) = \text{Net Income Levered}### ###CFFA_L=NI_L+Depr-CapEx - \varDelta NWC+\mathbf{IntExp} = \text{Cash Flow From Assets Levered}### ###NI_U=(Rev-COGS-FC-Depr).(1-t_c) = \text{Net Income Unlevered}### ###CFFA_U=NI_U+Depr-CapEx - \varDelta NWC= \text{Cash Flow From Assets Unlevered}###A firm plans to issue equity and use the cash raised to pay off its debt. No assets will be bought or sold. Ignore the costs of financial distress.

Which of the following statements is **NOT** correct, all things remaining equal?

A company advertises an investment costing $**1,000** which they say is underpriced. They say that it has an expected total return of **15**% pa, but a required return of only **10**% pa. Assume that there are no dividend payments so the entire 15% total return is all capital return.

Assuming that the company's statements are correct, what is the **NPV** of buying the investment if the 15% return lasts for the next **100** years (t=0 to 100), then reverts to 10% pa after that time? Also, what is the NPV of the investment if the 15% return lasts forever?

In both cases, assume that the required return of 10% remains constant. All returns are given as effective annual rates.

The answer choices below are given in the same order (15% for 100 years, and 15% forever):

The price of gold is currently $**700** per ounce. The forward price for delivery in 1 year is $**800**. An arbitrageur can borrow money at **10**% per annum given as an effective discrete annual rate. Assume that gold is fairly priced and the cost of storing gold is zero.

What is the best way to conduct an arbitrage in this situation? The best arbitrage strategy requires zero capital, has zero risk and makes money straight away. An arbitrageur should **sell 1 forward** on gold and:

A stock is expected to pay a dividend of $**5** per share in **1** month and $**5** again in **7** months.

The stock price is $**100**, and the risk-free rate of interest is **10**% per annum with continuous compounding. The yield curve is flat. Assume that investors are risk-neutral.

An investor has just taken a **short** position in a **one** year forward contract on the stock.

Find the forward price ##(F_1)## and value of the contract ##(V_0)## initially. Also find the value of the short futures contract in 6 months ##(V_\text{0.5, SF})## if the stock price fell to $**90**.

Mr Blue, Miss Red and Mrs Green are people with different utility functions.

Which of the following statements is **NOT** correct?

**Question 792** mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate, log-normal distribution, confidence interval

A risk manager has identified that their investment fund’s continuously compounded portfolio returns are normally distributed with a mean of **10**% pa and a standard deviation of **40**% pa. The fund’s portfolio is currently valued at $**1** million. Assume that there is no estimation error in the above figures. To simplify your calculations, all answers below use **2.33** as an approximation for the normal inverse cumulative density function at 99%. All answers are rounded to the nearest dollar. Assume one month is 1/12 of a year. Which of the following statements is **NOT** correct?