# Fight Finance

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How many years will it take for an asset's price to quadruple (be four times as big, say from $1 to$4) if the price grows by 15% pa?

If a project's net present value (NPV) is zero, then its internal rate of return (IRR) will be:

You have $100,000 in the bank. The bank pays interest at 10% pa, given as an effective annual rate. You wish to consume an equal amount now (t=0) and in one year (t=1) and have nothing left in the bank at the end (t=1). How much can you consume at each time? Your neighbour asks you for a loan of$100 and offers to pay you back $120 in one year. You don't actually have any money right now, but you can borrow and lend from the bank at a rate of 10% pa. Rates are given as effective annual rates. Assume that your neighbour will definitely pay you back. Ignore interest tax shields and transaction costs. The Net Present Value (NPV) of lending to your neighbour is$9.09. Describe what you would do to actually receive a $9.09 cash flow right now with zero net cash flows in the future. One and a half years ago Frank bought a house for$600,000. Now it's worth only $500,000, based on recent similar sales in the area. The expected total return on Frank's residential property is 7% pa. He rents his house out for$1,600 per month, paid in advance. Every 12 months he plans to increase the rental payments.

The present value of 12 months of rental payments is $18,617.27. The future value of 12 months of rental payments one year in the future is$19,920.48.

What is the expected annual rental yield of the property? Ignore the costs of renting such as maintenance, real estate agent fees and so on.

A stock has a real expected total return of 7% pa and a real expected capital return of 2% pa.

Inflation is expected to be 2% pa. All rates are given as effective annual rates.

What is the nominal expected total return, capital return and dividend yield? The answers below are given in the same order.

You expect a nominal payment of $100 in 5 years. The real discount rate is 10% pa and the inflation rate is 3% pa. Which of the following statements is NOT correct? Katya offers to pay you$10 at the end of every year for the next 5 years (t=1,2,3,4,5) if you pay her $50 now (t=0). You can borrow and lend from the bank at an interest rate of 10% pa, given as an effective annual rate. Ignore credit risk. Will you or Katya's deal? This annuity formula $\dfrac{C_1}{r}\left(1-\dfrac{1}{(1+r)^3} \right)$ is equivalent to which of the following formulas? Note the 3. In the below formulas, $C_t$ is a cash flow at time t. All of the cash flows are equal, but paid at different times. Your friend overheard that you need some cash and asks if you would like to borrow some money. She can lend you$5,000 now (t=0), and in return she wants you to pay her back $1,000 in two years (t=2) and every year after that for the next 5 years, so there will be 6 payments of$1,000 from t=2 to t=7 inclusive.

What is the net present value (NPV) of borrowing from your friend?

Assume that banks loan funds at interest rates of 10% pa, given as an effective annual rate.

Some countries' interest rates are so low that they're zero.

If interest rates are 0% pa and are expected to stay at that level for the foreseeable future, what is the most that you would be prepared to pay a bank now if it offered to pay you $10 at the end of every year for the next 5 years? In other words, what is the present value of five$10 payments at time 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 if interest rates are 0% pa?

A stock is just about to pay a dividend of $1 tonight. Future annual dividends are expected to grow by 2% pa. The next dividend of$1 will be paid tonight, and the year after that the dividend will be $1.02 (=1*(1+0.02)^1), and a year later 1.0404 (=1*(1+0.04)^2) and so on forever. Its required total return is 10% pa. The total required return and growth rate of dividends are given as effective annual rates. Calculate the current stock price. The perpetuity with growth formula, also known as the dividend discount model (DDM) or Gordon growth model, is appropriate for valuing a company's shares. $P_0$ is the current share price, $C_1$ is next year's expected dividend, $r$ is the total required return and $g$ is the expected growth rate of the dividend. $$P_0=\dfrac{C_1}{r-g}$$ The below graph shows the expected future price path of the company's shares. Which of the following statements about the graph is NOT correct? The following is the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) used to price stocks: $$P_0=\dfrac{C_1}{r-g}$$ If the assumptions of the DDM hold, which one of the following statements is NOT correct? The long term expected: A stock is expected to pay the following dividends:  Cash Flows of a Stock Time (yrs) 0 1 2 3 4 ... Dividend ($) 0.00 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 ...

After year 4, the annual dividend will grow in perpetuity at 5% pa, so;

• the dividend at t=5 will be $1.15(1+0.05), • the dividend at t=6 will be$1.15(1+0.05)^2, and so on.

The required return on the stock is 10% pa. Both the growth rate and required return are given as effective annual rates.

What will be the price of the stock in three and a half years (t = 3.5)?

The following equation is the Dividend Discount Model, also known as the 'Gordon Growth Model' or the 'Perpetuity with growth' equation.

$$p_0 = \frac{d_1}{r - g}$$

Which expression is NOT equal to the expected dividend yield?

A fairly valued share's current price is $4 and it has a total required return of 30%. Dividends are paid annually and next year's dividend is expected to be$1. After that, dividends are expected to grow by 5% pa in perpetuity. All rates are effective annual returns.

What is the expected dividend income paid at the end of the second year (t=2) and what is the expected capital gain from just after the first dividend (t=1) to just after the second dividend (t=2)? The answers are given in the same order, the dividend and then the capital gain.

Most listed Australian companies pay dividends twice per year, the 'interim' and 'final' dividends, which are roughly 6 months apart.

You are an equities analyst trying to value the company BHP. You decide to use the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) as a starting point, so you study BHP's dividend history and you find that BHP tends to pay the same interim and final dividend each year, and that both grow by the same rate.

You expect BHP will pay a $0.55 interim dividend in six months and a$0.55 final dividend in one year. You expect each to grow by 4% next year and forever, so the interim and final dividends next year will be $0.572 each, and so on in perpetuity. Assume BHP's cost of equity is 8% pa. All rates are quoted as nominal effective rates. The dividends are nominal cash flows and the inflation rate is 2.5% pa. What is the current price of a BHP share? Two companies BigDiv and ZeroDiv are exactly the same except for their dividend payouts. BigDiv pays large dividends and ZeroDiv doesn't pay any dividends. Currently the two firms have the same earnings, assets, number of shares, share price, expected total return and risk. Assume a perfect world with no taxes, no transaction costs, no asymmetric information and that all assets including business projects are fairly priced and therefore zero-NPV. All things remaining equal, which of the following statements is NOT correct? Which of the following statements about gold is NOT correct? Assume that the gold price increases by inflation. Gold: A stock’s current price is$1. Its expected total return is 10% pa and its long term expected capital return is 4% pa. It pays an annual dividend and the next one will be paid in one year. All rates are given as effective annual rates. The dividend discount model is thought to be a suitable model for the stock. Ignore taxes. Which of the following statements about the stock is NOT correct?

A share’s current price is $60. It’s expected to pay a dividend of$1.50 in one year. The growth rate of the dividend is 0.5% pa and the stock’s required total return is 3% pa. The stock’s price can be modeled using the dividend discount model (DDM):

$P_0=\dfrac{C_1}{r-g}$

Which of the following methods is NOT equal to the stock’s expected price in one year and six months (t=1.5 years)? Note that the symbolic formulas shown in each line below do equal the formulas with numbers. The formula is just repeated with symbols and then numbers in case it helps you to identify the incorrect statement more quickly.

A share currently worth $100 is expected to pay a constant dividend of$4 for the next 5 years with the first dividend in one year (t=1) and the last in 5 years (t=5).

The total required return is 10% pa.

What do you expected the share price to be in 5 years, just after the dividend at that time has been paid?

Stocks in the United States usually pay quarterly dividends. For example, the software giant Microsoft paid a $0.23 dividend every quarter over the 2013 financial year and plans to pay a$0.28 dividend every quarter over the 2014 financial year.

Using the dividend discount model and net present value techniques, calculate the stock price of Microsoft assuming that:

• The time now is the beginning of July 2014. The next dividend of $0.28 will be received in 3 months (end of September 2014), with another 3 quarterly payments of$0.28 after this (end of December 2014, March 2015 and June 2015).
• The quarterly dividend will increase by 2.5% every year, but each quarterly dividend over the year will be equal. So each quarterly dividend paid in the financial year beginning in September 2015 will be $0.287 $(=0.28×(1+0.025)^1)$, with the last at the end of June 2016. In the next financial year beginning in September 2016 each quarterly dividend will be$0.294175 $(=0.28×(1+0.025)^2)$, with the last at the end of June 2017, and so on forever.
• The total required return on equity is 6% pa.
• The required return and growth rate are given as effective annual rates.
• Dividend payment dates and ex-dividend dates are at the same time.
• Remember that there are 4 quarters in a year and 3 months in a quarter.

What is the current stock price?

You own some nice shoes which you use once per week on date nights. You bought them 2 years ago for $500. In your experience, shoes used once per week last for 6 years. So you expect yours to last for another 4 years. Your younger sister said that she wants to borrow your shoes once per week. With the increased use, your shoes will only last for another 2 years rather than 4. What is the present value of the cost of letting your sister use your current shoes for the next 2 years? Assume: that bank interest rates are 10% pa, given as an effective annual rate; you will buy a new pair of shoes when your current pair wears out and your sister will not use the new ones; your sister will only use your current shoes so she will only use it for the next 2 years; and the price of new shoes never changes. Two years ago Fred bought a house for$300,000.

Now it's worth $500,000, based on recent similar sales in the area. Fred's residential property has an expected total return of 8% pa. He rents his house out for$2,000 per month, paid in advance. Every 12 months he plans to increase the rental payments.

The present value of 12 months of rental payments is $23,173.86. The future value of 12 months of rental payments one year ahead is$25,027.77.

What is the expected annual growth rate of the rental payments? In other words, by what percentage increase will Fred have to raise the monthly rent by each year to sustain the expected annual total return of 8%?

When using the dividend discount model, care must be taken to avoid using a nominal dividend growth rate that exceeds the country's nominal GDP growth rate. Otherwise the firm is forecast to take over the country since it grows faster than the average business forever.

Suppose a firm's nominal dividend grows at 10% pa forever, and nominal GDP growth is 5% pa forever. The firm's total dividends are currently $1 billion (t=0). The country's GDP is currently$1,000 billion (t=0).

In approximately how many years will the company's total dividends be as large as the country's GDP?

An industrial chicken farmer grows chickens for their meat. Chickens:

1. Cost $0.50 each to buy as chicks. They are bought on the day they’re born, at t=0. 2. Grow at a rate of$0.70 worth of meat per chicken per week for the first 6 weeks (t=0 to t=6).
3. Grow at a rate of $0.40 worth of meat per chicken per week for the next 4 weeks (t=6 to t=10) since they’re older and grow more slowly. 4. Feed costs are$0.30 per chicken per week for their whole life. Chicken feed is bought and fed to the chickens once per week at the beginning of the week. So the first amount of feed bought for a chicken at t=0 costs $0.30, and so on. 5. Can be slaughtered (killed for their meat) and sold at no cost at the end of the week. The price received for the chicken is their total value of meat (note that the chicken grows fast then slow, see above). The required return of the chicken farm is 0.5% given as an effective weekly rate. Ignore taxes and the fixed costs of the factory. Ignore the chicken’s welfare and other environmental and ethical concerns. Find the equivalent weekly cash flow of slaughtering a chicken at 6 weeks and at 10 weeks so the farmer can figure out the best time to slaughter his chickens. The choices below are given in the same order, 6 and 10 weeks. Which of the below statements about effective rates and annualised percentage rates (APR's) is NOT correct? On his 20th birthday, a man makes a resolution. He will deposit$30 into a bank account at the end of every month starting from now, which is the start of the month. So the first payment will be in one month. He will write in his will that when he dies the money in the account should be given to charity.

The bank account pays interest at 6% pa compounding monthly, which is not expected to change.

If the man lives for another 60 years, how much money will be in the bank account if he dies just after making his last (720th) payment?

A bank grants a borrower an interest-only residential mortgage loan with a very large 50% deposit and a nominal interest rate of 6% that is not expected to change. Assume that inflation is expected to be a constant 2% pa over the life of the loan. Ignore credit risk.

From the bank's point of view, what is the long term expected nominal capital return of the loan asset?

An 'interest only' loan can also be called a:

"Buy low, sell high" is a phrase commonly heard in financial markets. It states that traders should try to buy assets at low prices and sell at high prices.

Traders in the fixed-coupon bond markets often quote promised bond yields rather than prices. Fixed-coupon bond traders should try to:

The theory of fixed interest bond pricing is an application of the theory of Net Present Value (NPV). Also, a 'fairly priced' asset is not over- or under-priced. Buying or selling a fairly priced asset has an NPV of zero.

Considering this, which of the following statements is NOT correct?

Let the 'income return' of a bond be the coupon at the end of the period divided by the market price now at the start of the period $(C_1/P_0)$. The expected income return of a premium fixed coupon bond is:

An investor bought two fixed-coupon bonds issued by the same company, a zero-coupon bond and a 7% pa semi-annual coupon bond. Both bonds have a face value of $1,000, mature in 10 years, and had a yield at the time of purchase of 8% pa. A few years later, yields fell to 6% pa. Which of the following statements is correct? Note that a capital gain is an increase in price. In these tough economic times, central banks around the world have cut interest rates so low that they are practically zero. In some countries, government bond yields are also very close to zero. A three year government bond with a face value of$100 and a coupon rate of 2% pa paid semi-annually was just issued at a yield of 0%. What is the price of the bond?

An Australian company just issued two bonds:

• A 6-month zero coupon bond at a yield of 6% pa, and
• A 12 month zero coupon bond at a yield of 7% pa.

What is the company's forward rate from 6 to 12 months? Give your answer as an APR compounding every 6 months, which is how the above bond yields are quoted.

You're trying to save enough money to buy your first car which costs $2,500. You can save$100 at the end of each month starting from now. You currently have no money at all. You just opened a bank account with an interest rate of 6% pa payable monthly.

How many months will it take to save enough money to buy the car? Assume that the price of the car will stay the same over time.

Your main expense is fuel for your car which costs $100 per month. You just refueled, so you won't need any more fuel for another month (first payment at t=1 month). You have$2,500 in a bank account which pays interest at a rate of 6% pa, payable monthly. Interest rates are not expected to change.

Assuming that you have no income, in how many months time will you not have enough money to fully refuel your car?

You really want to go on a back packing trip to Europe when you finish university. Currently you have $1,500 in the bank. Bank interest rates are 8% pa, given as an APR compounding per month. If the holiday will cost$2,000, how long will it take for your bank account to reach that amount?

What is the net present value (NPV) of undertaking a full-time Australian undergraduate business degree as an Australian citizen? Only include the cash flows over the duration of the degree, ignore any benefits or costs of the degree after it's completed.

Assume the following:

• The degree takes 3 years to complete and all students pass all subjects.
• There are 2 semesters per year and 4 subjects per semester.
• University fees per subject per semester are $1,277, paid at the start of each semester. Fees are expected to stay constant for the next 3 years. • There are 52 weeks per year. • The first semester is just about to start (t=0). The first semester lasts for 19 weeks (t=0 to 19). • The second semester starts immediately afterwards (t=19) and lasts for another 19 weeks (t=19 to 38). • The summer holidays begin after the second semester ends and last for 14 weeks (t=38 to 52). Then the first semester begins the next year, and so on. • Working full time at the grocery store instead of studying full-time pays$20/hr and you can work 35 hours per week. Wages are paid at the end of each week.
• Full-time students can work full-time during the summer holiday at the grocery store for the same rate of $20/hr for 35 hours per week. Wages are paid at the end of each week. • The discount rate is 9.8% pa. All rates and cash flows are real. Inflation is expected to be 3% pa. All rates are effective annual. The NPV of costs from undertaking the university degree is: Over the next year, the management of an unlevered company plans to: • Achieve firm free cash flow (FFCF or CFFA) of$1m.
• Pay dividends of $1.8m • Complete a$1.3m share buy-back.
• Spend $0.8m on new buildings without buying or selling any other fixed assets. This capital expenditure is included in the CFFA figure quoted above. Assume that: • All amounts are received and paid at the end of the year so you can ignore the time value of money. • The firm has sufficient retained profits to pay the dividend and complete the buy back. • The firm plans to run a very tight ship, with no excess cash above operating requirements currently or over the next year. How much new equity financing will the company need? In other words, what is the value of new shares that will need to be issued? Over the next year, the management of an unlevered company plans to: • Make$5m in sales, $1.9m in net income and$2m in equity free cash flow (EFCF).
• Pay dividends of $1m. • Complete a$1.3m share buy-back.

Assume that:

• All amounts are received and paid at the end of the year so you can ignore the time value of money.
• The firm has sufficient retained profits to legally pay the dividend and complete the buy back.
• The firm plans to run a very tight ship, with no excess cash above operating requirements currently or over the next year.

How much new equity financing will the company need? In other words, what is the value of new shares that will need to be issued?

Find the cash flow from assets (CFFA) of the following project.

 Project Data Project life 2 years Initial investment in equipment $6m Depreciation of equipment per year for tax purposes$1m Unit sales per year 4m Sale price per unit $8 Variable cost per unit$3 Fixed costs per year, paid at the end of each year $1.5m Tax rate 30% Note 1: The equipment will have a book value of$4m at the end of the project for tax purposes. However, the equipment is expected to fetch $0.9 million when it is sold at t=2. Note 2: Due to the project, the firm will have to purchase$0.8m of inventory initially, which it will sell at t=1. The firm will buy another $0.8m at t=1 and sell it all again at t=2 with zero inventory left. The project will have no effect on the firm's current liabilities. Find the project's CFFA at time zero, one and two. Answers are given in millions of dollars ($m).

Value the following business project to manufacture a new product.

 Project Data Project life 2 yrs Initial investment in equipment $6m Depreciation of equipment per year$3m Expected sale price of equipment at end of project $0.6m Unit sales per year 4m Sale price per unit$8 Variable cost per unit $5 Fixed costs per year, paid at the end of each year$1m Interest expense per year 0 Tax rate 30% Weighted average cost of capital after tax per annum 10%

Notes

1. The firm's current assets and current liabilities are $3m and$2m respectively right now. This net working capital will not be used in this project, it will be used in other unrelated projects.
Due to the project, current assets (mostly inventory) will grow by $2m initially (at t = 0), and then by$0.2m at the end of the first year (t=1).
Current liabilities (mostly trade creditors) will increase by $0.1m at the end of the first year (t=1). At the end of the project, the net working capital accumulated due to the project can be sold for the same price that it was bought. 2. The project cost$0.5m to research which was incurred one year ago.

Assumptions

• All cash flows occur at the start or end of the year as appropriate, not in the middle or throughout the year.
• All rates and cash flows are real. The inflation rate is 3% pa.
• All rates are given as effective annual rates.
• The business considering the project is run as a 'sole tradership' (run by an individual without a company) and is therefore eligible for a 50% capital gains tax discount when the equipment is sold, as permitted by the Australian Tax Office.

What is the expected net present value (NPV) of the project?

One year ago you bought $100,000 of shares partly funded using a margin loan. The margin loan size was$70,000 and the other $30,000 was your own wealth or 'equity' in the share assets. The interest rate on the margin loan was 7.84% pa. Over the year, the shares produced a dividend yield of 4% pa and a capital gain of 5% pa. What was the total return on your wealth? Ignore taxes, assume that all cash flows (interest payments and dividends) were paid and received at the end of the year, and all rates above are effective annual rates. Hint: Remember that wealth in this context is your equity (E) in the house asset (V = D+E) which is funded by the loan (D) and your deposit or equity (E). Interest expense (IntExp) is an important part of a company's income statement (or 'profit and loss' or 'statement of financial performance'). How does an accountant calculate the annual interest expense of a fixed-coupon bond that has a liquid secondary market? Select the most correct answer: Annual interest expense is equal to: A manufacturing company is considering a new project in the more risky services industry. The cash flows from assets (CFFA) are estimated for the new project, with interest expense excluded from the calculations. To get the levered value of the project, what should these unlevered cash flows be discounted by? Assume that the manufacturing firm has a target debt-to-assets ratio that it sticks to. There are many ways to calculate a firm's free cash flow (FFCF), also called cash flow from assets (CFFA). Some include the annual interest tax shield in the cash flow and some do not. Which of the below FFCF formulas include the interest tax shield in the cash flow? $$(1) \quad FFCF=NI + Depr - CapEx -ΔNWC + IntExp$$ $$(2) \quad FFCF=NI + Depr - CapEx -ΔNWC + IntExp.(1-t_c)$$ $$(3) \quad FFCF=EBIT.(1-t_c )+ Depr- CapEx -ΔNWC+IntExp.t_c$$ $$(4) \quad FFCF=EBIT.(1-t_c) + Depr- CapEx -ΔNWC$$ $$(5) \quad FFCF=EBITDA.(1-t_c )+Depr.t_c- CapEx -ΔNWC+IntExp.t_c$$ $$(6) \quad FFCF=EBITDA.(1-t_c )+Depr.t_c- CapEx -ΔNWC$$ $$(7) \quad FFCF=EBIT-Tax + Depr - CapEx -ΔNWC$$ $$(8) \quad FFCF=EBIT-Tax + Depr - CapEx -ΔNWC-IntExp.t_c$$ $$(9) \quad FFCF=EBITDA-Tax - CapEx -ΔNWC$$ $$(10) \quad FFCF=EBITDA-Tax - CapEx -ΔNWC-IntExp.t_c$$ The formulas for net income (NI also called earnings), EBIT and EBITDA are given below. Assume that depreciation and amortisation are both represented by 'Depr' and that 'FC' represents fixed costs such as rent. $$NI=(Rev - COGS - Depr - FC - IntExp).(1-t_c )$$ $$EBIT=Rev - COGS - FC-Depr$$ $$EBITDA=Rev - COGS - FC$$ $$Tax =(Rev - COGS - Depr - FC - IntExp).t_c= \dfrac{NI.t_c}{1-t_c}$$ A firm has a debt-to-assets ratio of 50%. The firm then issues a large amount of debt to raise money for new projects of similar market risk to the company's existing projects. Assume a classical tax system. Which statement is correct?  Project Data Project life 2 yrs Initial investment in equipment$600k Depreciation of equipment per year $250k Expected sale price of equipment at end of project$200k Revenue per job $12k Variable cost per job$4k Quantity of jobs per year 120 Fixed costs per year, paid at the end of each year $100k Interest expense in first year (at t=1)$16.091k Interest expense in second year (at t=2) $9.711k Tax rate 30% Government treasury bond yield 5% Bank loan debt yield 6% Levered cost of equity 12.5% Market portfolio return 10% Beta of assets 1.24 Beta of levered equity 1.5 Firm's and project's debt-to-equity ratio 25% Notes 1. The project will require an immediate purchase of$50k of inventory, which will all be sold at cost when the project ends. Current liabilities are negligible so they can be ignored.

Assumptions

• The debt-to-equity ratio will be kept constant throughout the life of the project. The amount of interest expense at the end of each period has been correctly calculated to maintain this constant debt-to-equity ratio. Note that interest expense is different in each year.
• Thousands are represented by 'k' (kilo).
• All cash flows occur at the start or end of the year as appropriate, not in the middle or throughout the year.
• All rates and cash flows are nominal. The inflation rate is 2% pa.
• All rates are given as effective annual rates.
• The 50% capital gains tax discount is not available since the project is undertaken by a firm, not an individual.

What is the net present value (NPV) of the project?

A firm has a debt-to-assets ratio of 50%. The firm then issues a large amount of equity to raise money for new projects of similar systematic risk to the company's existing projects. Assume a classical tax system. Which statement is correct?

A fast-growing firm is suitable for valuation using a multi-stage growth model.

It's nominal unlevered cash flow from assets ($CFFA_U$) at the end of this year (t=1) is expected to be $1 million. After that it is expected to grow at a rate of: • 12% pa for the next two years (from t=1 to 3), • 5% over the fourth year (from t=3 to 4), and • -1% forever after that (from t=4 onwards). Note that this is a negative one percent growth rate. Assume that: • The nominal WACC after tax is 9.5% pa and is not expected to change. • The nominal WACC before tax is 10% pa and is not expected to change. • The firm has a target debt-to-equity ratio that it plans to maintain. • The inflation rate is 3% pa. • All rates are given as nominal effective annual rates. What is the levered value of this fast growing firm's assets? To value a business's assets, the free cash flow of the firm (FCFF, also called CFFA) needs to be calculated. This requires figures from the firm's income statement and balance sheet. For what figures is the balance sheet needed? Note that the balance sheet is sometimes also called the statement of financial position. You bought a house, primarily funded using a home loan from a bank. Which of the following statements is NOT correct? If someone says "my shares rose by 10% last year", what do you assume that they mean? Taking inflation into account when using the DDM can be hard. Which of the following formulas will NOT give a company's current stock price $(P_0)$? Assume that the annual dividend was just paid $(C_0)$, and the next dividend will be paid in one year $(C_1)$. A stock will pay you a dividend of$2 tonight if you buy it today.

Thereafter the annual dividend is expected to grow by 3% pa, so the next dividend after the $2 one tonight will be$2.06 in one year, then in two years it will be $2.1218 and so on. The stock's required return is 8% pa. What is the stock price today and what do you expect the stock price to be tomorrow, approximately? A real estate agent says that the price of a house in Sydney Australia is approximately equal to the gross weekly rent times 1000. What type of valuation method is the real estate agent using? All other things remaining equal, a project is worse if its: Two years ago you entered into a fully amortising home loan with a principal of$1,000,000, an interest rate of 6% pa compounding monthly with a term of 25 years.

Then interest rates suddenly fall to 4.5% pa (t=0), but you continue to pay the same monthly home loan payments as you did before. How long will it now take to pay off your home loan? Measure the time taken to pay off the home loan from the current time which is 2 years after the home loan was first entered into.

Assume that the lower interest rate was given to you immediately after the loan repayment at the end of year 2, which was the 24th payment since the loan was granted. Also assume that rates were and are expected to remain constant.

All things remaining equal, the variance of a portfolio of two positively-weighted stocks rises as:

Two risky stocks A and B comprise an equal-weighted portfolio. The correlation between the stocks' returns is 70%.

If the variance of stock A increases but the:

• Prices and expected returns of each stock stays the same,
• Variance of stock B's returns stays the same,
• Correlation of returns between the stocks stays the same.

Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

An investor wants to make a portfolio of two stocks A and B with a target expected portfolio return of 12% pa.

• Stock A has an expected return of 10% pa and a standard deviation of 20% pa.
• Stock B has an expected return of 15% pa and a standard deviation of 30% pa.

The correlation coefficient between stock A and B's expected returns is 70%.

What will be the annual standard deviation of the portfolio with this 12% pa target return?

Let the standard deviation of returns for a share per month be $\sigma_\text{monthly}$.

What is the formula for the standard deviation of the share's returns per year $(\sigma_\text{yearly})$?

Assume that returns are independently and identically distributed (iid) so they have zero auto correlation, meaning that if the return was higher than average today, it does not indicate that the return tomorrow will be higher or lower than average.

Diversification is achieved by investing in a large amount of stocks. What type of risk is reduced by diversification?

A fairly priced stock has an expected return equal to the market's. Treasury bonds yield 5% pa and the market portfolio's expected return is 10% pa. What is the stock's beta?

A stock's correlation with the market portfolio increases while its total risk is unchanged. What will happen to the stock's expected return and systematic risk?

Assets A, B, M and $r_f$ are shown on the graphs above. Asset M is the market portfolio and $r_f$ is the risk free yield on government bonds. Assume that investors can borrow and lend at the risk free rate. Which of the below statements is NOT correct?

A stock has a beta of 1.5. The market's expected total return is 10% pa and the risk free rate is 5% pa, both given as effective annual rates.

Over the last year, bad economic news was released showing a higher chance of recession. Over this time the share market fell by 1%. So $r_{m} = (P_{0} - P_{-1})/P_{-1} = -0.01$, where the current time is zero and one year ago is time -1. The risk free rate was unchanged.

What do you think was the stock's historical return over the last year, given as an effective annual rate?

A firm changes its capital structure by issuing a large amount of equity and using the funds to repay debt. Its assets are unchanged. Ignore interest tax shields.

According to the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), which statement is correct?

 Project Data Project life 1 year Initial investment in equipment $8m Depreciation of equipment per year$8m Expected sale price of equipment at end of project 0 Unit sales per year 4m Sale price per unit $10 Variable cost per unit$5 Fixed costs per year, paid at the end of each year $2m Interest expense in first year (at t=1)$0.562m Corporate tax rate 30% Government treasury bond yield 5% Bank loan debt yield 9% Market portfolio return 10% Covariance of levered equity returns with market 0.32 Variance of market portfolio returns 0.16 Firm's and project's debt-to-equity ratio 50%

Notes

1. Due to the project, current assets will increase by $6m now (t=0) and fall by$6m at the end (t=1). Current liabilities will not be affected.

Assumptions

• The debt-to-equity ratio will be kept constant throughout the life of the project. The amount of interest expense at the end of each period has been correctly calculated to maintain this constant debt-to-equity ratio.
• Millions are represented by 'm'.
• All cash flows occur at the start or end of the year as appropriate, not in the middle or throughout the year.
• All rates and cash flows are real. The inflation rate is 2% pa. All rates are given as effective annual rates.
• The project is undertaken by a firm, not an individual.

What is the net present value (NPV) of the project?

Your friend claims that by reading 'The Economist' magazine's economic news articles, she can identify shares that will have positive abnormal expected returns over the next 2 years. Assuming that her claim is true, which statement(s) are correct?

(i) Weak form market efficiency is broken.

(ii) Semi-strong form market efficiency is broken.

(iii) Strong form market efficiency is broken.

(iv) The asset pricing model used to measure the abnormal returns (such as the CAPM) is either wrong (mis-specification error) or is measured using the wrong inputs (data errors) so the returns may not be abnormal but rather fair for the level of risk.

Select the most correct response:

Economic statistics released this morning were a surprise: they show a strong chance of consumer price inflation (CPI) reaching 5% pa over the next 2 years.

This is much higher than the previous forecast of 3% pa.

A vanilla fixed-coupon 2-year risk-free government bond was issued at par this morning, just before the economic news was released.

What is the expected change in bond price after the economic news this morning, and in the next 2 years? Assume that:

• Inflation remains at 5% over the next 2 years.
• Investors demand a constant real bond yield.
• The bond price falls by the (after-tax) value of the coupon the night before the ex-coupon date, as in real life.

The efficient markets hypothesis (EMH) and no-arbitrage pricing theory are most closely related to which of the following concepts?

A man inherits $500,000 worth of shares. He believes that by learning the secrets of trading, keeping up with the financial news and doing complex trend analysis with charts that he can quit his job and become a self-employed day trader in the equities markets. What is the expected gain from doing this over the first year? Measure the net gain in wealth received at the end of this first year due to the decision to become a day trader. Assume the following: • He earns$60,000 pa in his current job, paid in a lump sum at the end of each year.
• He enjoys examining share price graphs and day trading just as much as he enjoys his current job.
• Stock markets are weak form and semi-strong form efficient.
• He has no inside information.
• He makes 1 trade every day and there are 250 trading days in the year. Trading costs are $20 per trade. His broker invoices him for the trading costs at the end of the year. • The shares that he currently owns and the shares that he intends to trade have the same level of systematic risk as the market portfolio. • The market portfolio's expected return is 10% pa. Measure the net gain over the first year as an expected wealth increase at the end of the year. A company advertises an investment costing$1,000 which they say is underpriced. They say that it has an expected total return of 15% pa, but a required return of only 10% pa. Assume that there are no dividend payments so the entire 15% total return is all capital return.

Assuming that the company's statements are correct, what is the NPV of buying the investment if the 15% return lasts for the next 100 years (t=0 to 100), then reverts to 10% pa after that time? Also, what is the NPV of the investment if the 15% return lasts forever?

In both cases, assume that the required return of 10% remains constant. All returns are given as effective annual rates.

The answer choices below are given in the same order (15% for 100 years, and 15% forever):

Currently, a mining company has a share price of $6 and pays constant annual dividends of$0.50. The next dividend will be paid in 1 year. Suddenly and unexpectedly the mining company announces that due to higher than expected profits, all of these windfall profits will be paid as a special dividend of \$0.30 in 1 year.

If investors believe that the windfall profits and dividend is a one-off event, what will be the new share price? If investors believe that the additional dividend is actually permanent and will continue to be paid, what will be the new share price? Assume that the required return on equity is unchanged. Choose from the following, where the first share price includes the one-off increase in earnings and dividends for the first year only $(P_\text{0 one-off})$ , and the second assumes that the increase is permanent $(P_\text{0 permanent})$:

Note: When a firm makes excess profits they sometimes pay them out as special dividends. Special dividends are just like ordinary dividends but they are one-off and investors do not expect them to continue, unlike ordinary dividends which are expected to persist.

Question 625  dividend re-investment plan, capital raising

Which of the following statements about dividend re-investment plans (DRP's) is NOT correct?

Which of the following interest rate quotes is NOT equivalent to a 10% effective annual rate of return? Assume that each year has 12 months, each month has 30 days, each day has 24 hours, each hour has 60 minutes and each minute has 60 seconds. APR stands for Annualised Percentage Rate.

Which of the following quantities is commonly assumed to be normally distributed?

Fred owns some Commonwealth Bank (CBA) shares. He has calculated CBA’s monthly returns for each month in the past 20 years using this formula:

$$r_\text{t monthly}=\ln⁡ \left( \dfrac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} \right)$$

He then took the arithmetic average and found it to be 1% per month using this formula:

$$\bar{r}_\text{monthly}= \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( r_\text{t monthly} \right)} }{T} =0.01=1\% \text{ per month}$$

He also found the standard deviation of these monthly returns which was 5% per month:

$$\sigma_\text{monthly} = \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( \left( r_\text{t monthly} - \bar{r}_\text{monthly} \right)^2 \right)} }{T} =0.05=5\%\text{ per month}$$

Which of the below statements about Fred’s CBA shares is NOT correct? Assume that the past historical average return is the true population average of future expected returns.

Here is a table of stock prices and returns. Which of the statements below the table is NOT correct?

 Price and Return Population Statistics Time Prices LGDR GDR NDR 0 100 1 50 -0.6931 0.5 -0.5 2 100 0.6931 2 1 Arithmetic average 0 1.25 0.25 Arithmetic standard deviation -0.6931 0.75 0.75

Due to floods overseas, there is a cut in the supply of the mineral iron ore and its price increases dramatically. An Australian iron ore mining company therefore expects a large but temporary increase in its profit and cash flows. The mining company does not have any positive NPV projects to begin, so what should it do? Select the most correct answer.

Stock A and B's returns have a correlation of 0.3. Which statement is NOT correct?

What is the covariance of a variable X with itself?

The cov(X, X) or $\sigma_{X,X}$ equals:

What is the covariance of a variable X with a constant C?

The cov(X, C) or $\sigma_{X,C}$ equals: