Fight Finance

Question 64  inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows, APR, effective rate

In Germany, nominal yields on semi-annual coupon paying Government Bonds with 2 years until maturity are currently 0.04% pa.

The inflation rate is currently 1.4% pa, given as an APR compounding per quarter. The inflation rate is not expected to change over the next 2 years.

What is the real yield on these bonds, given as an APR compounding every 6 months?

(a) -1.3529627%

(b) -0.4977348%

(c) 0.4977348%

(d) 1.3529627%

(e) 1.3621776%

Question 228  DDM, NPV, risk, market efficiency

A very low-risk stock just paid its semi-annual dividend of $0.14, as it has for the last 5 years. You conservatively estimate that from now on the dividend will fall at a rate of 1% every 6 months.

If the stock currently sells for $3 per share, what must be its required total return as an effective annual rate?

If risk free government bonds are trading at a yield of 4% pa, given as an effective annual rate, would you consider buying or selling the stock?

The stock's required total return is:

(a) 9.55%, so buy the stock since its required return is too high for its low risk.

(b) 7.37%, so buy the stock since its required return is too high for its low risk.

(c) 7.37%, so sell the stock since its required return is too high for its low risk.

(d) 3.62%, so buy the stock since its required return is too low for its low risk.

(e) 3.62%, so sell the stock since its required return is too low for its low risk.

Question 606  foreign exchange rate, American and European terms

Which of the following FX quotes (current in October 2015) is given in American terms?

(a) 1.55 USD per GBP

(b) 120.61 JPY per USD

(c) 6.32 RMB per USD

(d) 1 USD = 1.31 CAD

(e) 0.99 CHF = 1 USD

Question 655  capital budgeting, opportunity cost, sunk cost

The 'time value of money' is most closely related to which of the following concepts?

(a) Competition: Firms in competitive markets earn zero economic profit.

(b) Opportunity cost: The cost of the next best alternative foregone should be subtracted.

(c) Separation of the investment and financing decisions.

(d) Diversification: Risks can often be reduced by pooling them together.

(e) Sunk costs: Costs that cannot be recouped should be ignored.

Question 681  no explanation

A trader sells one crude oil European style put option contract on the CME expiring in one year with an exercise price of $44 per barrel for a price of $6.64. The crude oil spot price is $40.33. If the trader doesn’t close out her contract before maturity, then at maturity she will have the:

(a) Obligation to buy the underlying oil at $44 per barrel.

(b) Right to buy the underlying oil at $44 per barrel if she wants.

(c) Right to sell the underlying oil at $44 per barrel if she wants.

(d) Obligation to buy the underlying oil at $44 per barrel if the counterparty chooses to sell it.

(e) Obligation to sell the underlying oil at $44 per barrel if the counterparty chooses to buy it.

Question 721  mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate

Fred owns some Commonwealth Bank (CBA) shares. He has calculated CBA’s monthly returns for each month in the past 20 years using this formula:

###r_\text{t monthly}=\ln⁡ \left( \dfrac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} \right)###

He then took the arithmetic average and found it to be 1% per month using this formula:

###\bar{r}_\text{monthly}= \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( r_\text{t monthly} \right)} }{T} =0.01=1\% \text{ per month}###

He also found the standard deviation of these monthly returns which was 5% per month:

###\sigma_\text{monthly} = \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( \left( r_\text{t monthly} - \bar{r}_\text{monthly} \right)^2 \right)} }{T} =0.05=5\%\text{ per month}###

Which of the below statements about Fred’s CBA shares is NOT correct? Assume that the past historical average return is the true population average of future expected returns.

(a) The returns ##r_\text{t monthly}## are continuously compounded monthly returns and are likely to be normally distributed, so the mean, median and mode of these continuously compounded returns are all equal to 1% per month.

(b) The annualised average continuously compounded return is ##\bar{r}_\text{cc annual}=12×0.01=0.1=12\%\text{ pa}##. The annualised standard deviation is ##\sigma_\text{annual} = \sqrt{12}×0.05=0.173205081=17.32\%\text{ pa}##.

(c) Over the next 10 years the mean, median and mode continuously compounded 10 year returns will all equal ##0.01 \times 12 \times 10 = 120\%##.

(d) Over the next 10 years the expected mean gross discrete 10 year return is ##e^{(0.01 - 0.05^2/2)×12×10} = 2.857651118## and the median gross discrete 10 year return is ##e^{(0.01 + 0.05^2/2)×12×10}=3.857425531##.

(e) If the current price of the CBA shares is $75, then in 10 years they’re expected to have a mean value of ##75×e^{(0.01 + 0.05^2/2)×12×10} = 289.3069148## and a median value of ##75×e^{0.01×12×10}=249.0087692##.

Question 746  pay back period

A stock is expected to pay a dividend of $1 in one year. Its future annual dividends are expected to grow by 10% pa. So the first dividend of $1 is in one year, and the year after that the dividend will be $1.1 (=1*(1+0.1)^1), and a year later $1.21 (=1*(1+0.1)^2) and so on forever.

Its required total return is 30% pa. The total required return and growth rate of dividends are given as effective annual rates. The stock is fairly priced.

Calculate the pay back period of buying the stock and holding onto it forever, assuming that the dividends are received as at each time, not smoothly over each year.

(a) 1 year.

(b) 2 years.

(c) 3 years.

(d) 4 years.

(e) 5 years.

Question 866  option, Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing

A one year European-style put option has a strike price of $4.

The option's underlying stock currently trades at $5, pays no dividends and its standard deviation of continuously compounded returns is 47% pa.

The risk-free interest rate is 10% pa continuously compounded.

Use the Black-Scholes-Merton formula to calculate the option price. The put option price now is:

(a) $1.550849674

(b) $0.982509295

(c) $0.666414943

(d) $0.287263739

(e) $0.055037262

Question 881  Nixon Shock, Bretton Woods, foreign exchange rate, foreign exchange system history, no explanation

In the ‘Nixon Shock’ on August 15, 1971, the United States government:

(a) Floated the USD.

(b) Cancelled the international convertibility of the USD into gold.

(c) Cancelled the international convertibility of the USD into other currencies such as the GBP.

(d) Revalued the USD higher (an appreciation of the USD) against gold and other foreign currencies.

(e) Banned imports into the US.

Question 933  confidence interval, normal distribution

A stock has an expected return of 10% pa and you're 90% sure that over the next year, the return will be between -15% and 35%. The stock's returns are normally distributed. Note that the Z-statistic corresponding to a one-tail:

• 90% normal probability density function is 1.282.
• 95% normal probability density function is 1.645.
• 97.5% normal probability density function is 1.960.

What is the stock’s standard deviation of returns in percentage points per annum (pp pa)?

(a) 6.08 pp pa

(b) 15.2 pp pa

(c) 21.28 pp pa

(d) 27.36 pp pa

(e) 41.13 pp pa