Fight Finance

Question 64  inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows, APR, effective rate

In Germany, nominal yields on semi-annual coupon paying Government Bonds with 2 years until maturity are currently 0.04% pa.

The inflation rate is currently 1.4% pa, given as an APR compounding per quarter. The inflation rate is not expected to change over the next 2 years.

What is the real yield on these bonds, given as an APR compounding every 6 months?

(a) -1.3529627%

(b) -0.4977348%

(c) 0.4977348%

(d) 1.3529627%

(e) 1.3621776%

Question 65  annuity with growth, needs refinement

Which of the below formulas gives the present value of an annuity with growth?

(a) ##\dfrac{C_1}{r-g}\left(1-\dfrac{1}{(1+r)^T}\right)##

(b) ##\dfrac{C_1(1+g)^T}{r-g}\left(1-\dfrac{1}{(1+r)^T}\right)##

(c) ##\dfrac{C_1}{r-g}\left(1-\dfrac{1+g}{(1+r)^T}\right)##

(d) ##\dfrac{C_1}{r-g}\left(1-\left(\dfrac{1+g}{1+r}\right)^T \right)##

(e) ##\dfrac{C_1(1+g)}{r-g}\left(1-\dfrac{1}{(1+r)^T}\right)##

Hint: The equation of a perpetuity without growth is: ###V_\text{0, perp without growth} = \frac{C_\text{1}}{r}###

The formula for the present value of an annuity without growth is derived from the formula for a perpetuity without growth.

The idea is than an annuity with T payments from t=1 to T inclusive is equivalent to a perpetuity starting at t=1 with fixed positive cash flows, plus a perpetuity starting T periods later (t=T+1) with fixed negative cash flows. The positive and negative cash flows after time period T cancel each other out, leaving the positive cash flows between t=1 to T, which is the annuity.

###\begin{aligned} V_\text{0, annuity} &= V_\text{0, perp without growth from t=1} - V_\text{0, perp without growth from t=T+1} \\ &= \dfrac{C_\text{1}}{r} - \dfrac{ \left( \dfrac{C_\text{T+1}}{r} \right) }{(1+r)^T} \\ &= \dfrac{C_\text{1}}{r} - \dfrac{ \left( \dfrac{C_\text{1}}{r} \right) }{(1+r)^T} \\ &= \dfrac{C_\text{1}}{r}\left(1 - \dfrac{1}{(1+r)^T}\right) \\ \end{aligned}###

The equation of a perpetuity with growth is:

###V_\text{0, perp with growth} = \dfrac{C_\text{1}}{r-g}###

Question 333  DDM, time calculation

When using the dividend discount model, care must be taken to avoid using a nominal dividend growth rate that exceeds the country's nominal GDP growth rate. Otherwise the firm is forecast to take over the country since it grows faster than the average business forever.

Suppose a firm's nominal dividend grows at 10% pa forever, and nominal GDP growth is 5% pa forever. The firm's total dividends are currently $1 billion (t=0). The country's GDP is currently $1,000 billion (t=0).

In approximately how many years will the company's total dividends be as large as the country's GDP?

(a) 1,443 years

(b) 1,199 years

(c) 955 years

(d) 674 years

(e) 148 years

Question 337  capital structure, interest tax shield, leverage, real and nominal returns and cash flows, multi stage growth model

A fast-growing firm is suitable for valuation using a multi-stage growth model.

It's nominal unlevered cash flow from assets (##CFFA_U##) at the end of this year (t=1) is expected to be $1 million. After that it is expected to grow at a rate of:

• 12% pa for the next two years (from t=1 to 3),
• 5% over the fourth year (from t=3 to 4), and
• -1% forever after that (from t=4 onwards). Note that this is a negative one percent growth rate.

Assume that:

• The nominal WACC after tax is 9.5% pa and is not expected to change.
• The nominal WACC before tax is 10% pa and is not expected to change.
• The firm has a target debt-to-equity ratio that it plans to maintain.
• The inflation rate is 3% pa.
• All rates are given as nominal effective annual rates.

What is the levered value of this fast growing firm's assets?

(a) $13.19m

(b) $12.36m

(c) $11.77m

(d) $11.53m

(e) $11.20m

Question 468  PE ratio

A firm has 1 million shares which trade at a price of $30 each. The firm is expected to announce earnings of $3 million at the end of the year and pay an annual dividend of $1.50 per share.

What is the firm's (forward looking) price/earnings (PE) ratio?

(a) 20

(b) 10

(c) 3

(d) 2

(e) 0.5

Question 512  capital budgeting, CFFA

Find the cash flow from assets (CFFA) of the following project.

Project Data
Project life	2 years
Initial investment in equipment	$6m
Depreciation of equipment per year for tax purposes	$1m
Unit sales per year	4m
Sale price per unit	$8
Variable cost per unit	$3
Fixed costs per year, paid at the end of each year	$1.5m
Tax rate	30%

Note 1: The equipment will have a book value of $4m at the end of the project for tax purposes. However, the equipment is expected to fetch $0.9 million when it is sold at t=2.

Note 2: Due to the project, the firm will have to purchase $0.8m of inventory initially, which it will sell at t=1. The firm will buy another $0.8m at t=1 and sell it all again at t=2 with zero inventory left. The project will have no effect on the firm's current liabilities.

Find the project's CFFA at time zero, one and two. Answers are given in millions of dollars ($m).

(a) -6,   12.25,   16.68

(b) -6.8,   13.25,   14.05

(c) -6.8,   13.25,   15.88

(d) -6.8,   13.25,   18.51

(e) -6.8,   13.25,   17.71

Question 525  income and capital returns, real and nominal returns and cash flows, inflation

Which of the following statements about cash in the form of notes and coins is NOT correct? Assume that inflation is positive.

Notes and coins:

(a) Pay no income cash flow.

(b) Have a nominal total return of zero.

(c) Have a nominal capital return of zero.

(d) Have a nominal income return of zero.

(e) Have a real total return of zero.

Question 590  future, market efficiency

Which of the following statements about futures contracts on shares is NOT correct, assuming that markets are efficient?

When an equity future is first negotiated (at t=0):

(a) The futures price quote ##(F_T)## is 'fair'. It's neither over- nor under-priced to the long or short trader.

(b) The futures price quote ##(F_T)## equals the expected underlying asset price at maturity.

(c) The futures price quote ##(F_0)## is initially zero.

(d) The value of the future ##(V_0)## is initially zero to both the long and short trader.

(e) If the value of the future ##(V_0)## rises for the long trader, it must have fallen for the short trader, and vice versa.

Question 655  capital budgeting, opportunity cost, sunk cost

The 'time value of money' is most closely related to which of the following concepts?

(a) Competition: Firms in competitive markets earn zero economic profit.

(b) Opportunity cost: The cost of the next best alternative foregone should be subtracted.

(c) Separation of the investment and financing decisions.

(d) Diversification: Risks can often be reduced by pooling them together.

(e) Sunk costs: Costs that cannot be recouped should be ignored.

Question 721  mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate

Fred owns some Commonwealth Bank (CBA) shares. He has calculated CBA’s monthly returns for each month in the past 20 years using this formula:

###r_\text{t monthly}=\ln⁡ \left( \dfrac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} \right)###

He then took the arithmetic average and found it to be 1% per month using this formula:

###\bar{r}_\text{monthly}= \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( r_\text{t monthly} \right)} }{T} =0.01=1\% \text{ per month}###

He also found the standard deviation of these monthly returns which was 5% per month:

###\sigma_\text{monthly} = \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( \left( r_\text{t monthly} - \bar{r}_\text{monthly} \right)^2 \right)} }{T} =0.05=5\%\text{ per month}###

Which of the below statements about Fred’s CBA shares is NOT correct? Assume that the past historical average return is the true population average of future expected returns.

(a) The returns ##r_\text{t monthly}## are continuously compounded monthly returns and are likely to be normally distributed, so the mean, median and mode of these continuously compounded returns are all equal to 1% per month.

(b) The annualised average continuously compounded return is ##\bar{r}_\text{cc annual}=12×0.01=0.1=12\%\text{ pa}##. The annualised standard deviation is ##\sigma_\text{annual} = \sqrt{12}×0.05=0.173205081=17.32\%\text{ pa}##.

(c) Over the next 10 years the mean, median and mode continuously compounded 10 year returns will all equal ##0.01 \times 12 \times 10 = 120\%##.

(d) Over the next 10 years the expected mean gross discrete 10 year return is ##e^{(0.01 - 0.05^2/2)×12×10} = 2.857651118## and the median gross discrete 10 year return is ##e^{(0.01 + 0.05^2/2)×12×10}=3.857425531##.

(e) If the current price of the CBA shares is $75, then in 10 years they’re expected to have a mean value of ##75×e^{(0.01 + 0.05^2/2)×12×10} = 289.3069148## and a median value of ##75×e^{0.01×12×10}=249.0087692##.