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Convert a 10% effective annual rate ##(r_\text{eff annual})## into a continuously compounded annual rate ##(r_\text{cc annual})##. The equivalent continuously compounded annual rate is:

Question 711 continuously compounding rate, continuously compounding rate conversion

A continuously compounded semi-annual return of 5% ##(r_\text{cc 6mth})## is equivalent to a continuously compounded annual return ##(r_\text{cc annual})## of:

Question 713 effective rate conversion

An effective semi-annual return of 5% ##(r_\text{eff 6mth})## is equivalent to an effective annual return ##(r_\text{eff annual})## of:

Question 691 continuously compounding rate, effective rate, continuously compounding rate conversion, no explanation

A bank quotes an interest rate of 6% pa with quarterly compounding. Note that another way of stating this rate is that it is an annual percentage rate (APR) compounding discretely every 3 months.

Which of the following statements about this rate is NOT correct? All percentages are given to 6 decimal places. The equivalent:

Question 715 return distribution

If a variable, say X, is normally distributed with mean ##\mu## and variance ##\sigma^2## then mathematicians write ##X \sim \mathcal{N}(\mu, \sigma^2)##.

If a variable, say Y, is log-normally distributed and the underlying normal distribution has mean ##\mu## and variance ##\sigma^2## then mathematicians write ## Y \sim \mathbf{ln} \mathcal{N}(\mu, \sigma^2)##.

The below three graphs show probability density functions (PDF) of three different random variables Red, Green and Blue.

Select the most correct statement:

(a)##Red \sim \mathcal{N}(\mu, \sigma^2)##, ##Green \sim \mathcal{N}(\mu, \sigma^2)## and ##Blue \sim \mathcal{N}(\mu, \sigma^2)##

(b) ##Red \sim \mathcal{N}(\mu, \sigma^2)##, ##Green \sim \mathcal{N}(\mu, \sigma^2)## and ##Blue \sim \mathbf{ln} \mathcal{N}(\mu, \sigma^2)##

(c) ##Red \sim \mathcal{N}(\mu, \sigma^2)##, ##Green \sim \mathbf{ln} \mathcal{N}(\mu, \sigma^2)## and ##Blue \sim \mathbf{ln} \mathcal{N}(\mu, \sigma^2)##

(d) ##Red \sim \mathbf{ln} \mathcal{N}(\mu, \sigma^2)##, ##Green \sim \mathcal{N}(\mu, \sigma^2)## and ##Blue \sim \mathbf{ln} \mathcal{N}(\mu, \sigma^2)##

(e) ##Red \sim \mathbf{ln} \mathcal{N}(\mu, \sigma^2)##, ##Green \sim \mathbf{ln} \mathcal{N}(\mu, \sigma^2)## and ##Blue \sim \mathbf{ln} \mathcal{N}(\mu, \sigma^2)##

Question 717 return distribution

The below three graphs show probability density functions (PDF) of three different random variables Red, Green and Blue. Let ##P_1## be the unknown price of a stock in one year. ##P_1## is a random variable. Let ##P_0 = 1##, so the share price now is $1. This one dollar is a constant, it is not a variable.

Which of the below statements is NOT correct? Financial practitioners commonly assume that the shape of the PDF represented in the colour:

Question 724 return distribution, mean and median returns

Question 726 return distribution, mean and median returns

Question 719 mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate

A stock has an arithmetic average continuously compounded return (AALGDR) of 10% pa, a standard deviation of continuously compounded returns (SDLGDR) of 80% pa and current stock price of $1. Assume that stock prices are log-normally distributed. The graph below summarises this information and provides some helpful formulas.

In one year, what do you expect the median and mean prices to be? The answer options are given in the same order.

Question 720 mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate

In 5 years, what do you expect the median and mean prices to be? The answer options are given in the same order.

Question 723 mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate

Here is a table of stock prices and returns. Which of the statements below the table is NOT correct?

Price and Return Population Statistics
Time	Prices	LGDR	GDR	NDR
0	100
1	99	-0.010050	0.990000	-0.010000
2	180.40	0.600057	1.822222	0.822222
3	112.73	0.470181	0.624889	0.375111

Arithmetic average		0.0399	1.1457	0.1457
Arithmetic standard deviation		0.4384	0.5011	0.5011

(a) The geometric average of the gross discrete returns (GAGDR) equals 1.04075 which is 104.075%.

(b) ##\exp \left( \text{GAGDR} \right) = \text{AALGDR}##. The natural exponent of the GAGDR equals the arithmetic average of the logarithms of the gross discrete returns (AALGDR).

(c) ##\text{GAGDR}^T = \left( P_T/P_0 \right)##. The GAGDR raised to the power of the number of time period that it's measured over equals the ratio of the first and last prices.

(d) ##\text{GAGDR} = \exp \left( \text{AALGDR} \right)##. This is always true, regardless of the distribution of the prices or returns. The logarithm of the geometric average of the gross discrete returns (LGAGDR) is always equal to the arithmetic average of the logarithm of the gross discrete returns (AALGDR).

(e) ##\text{AAGDR} \approx \exp \left( \text{AALGDR} + \text{SDLGDR}^2/2 \right)##. This is only approximately true and depends on the distribution of the prices and returns. It's asymptotically true as the time period that the returns are measured over reaches infinity.

Question 779 mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate

Fred owns some BHP shares. He has calculated BHP’s monthly returns for each month in the past 30 years using this formula:

###r_\text{t monthly}=\ln⁡ \left( \dfrac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} \right)###

He then took the arithmetic average and found it to be 0.8% per month using this formula:

###\bar{r}_\text{monthly}= \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( r_\text{t monthly} \right)} }{T} =0.008=0.8\% \text{ per month}###

He also found the standard deviation of these monthly returns which was 15% per month:

###\sigma_\text{monthly} = \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( \left( r_\text{t monthly} - \bar{r}_\text{monthly} \right)^2 \right)} }{T} =0.15=15\%\text{ per month}###

Assume that the past historical average return is the true population average of future expected returns and the stock's returns calculated above ##(r_\text{t monthly})## are normally distributed. Which of the below statements about Fred’s BHP shares is NOT correct?

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