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Convert a 10% continuously compounded annual rate ##(r_\text{cc annual})## into an effective annual rate ##(r_\text{eff annual})##. The equivalent effective annual rate is:

Question 709 continuously compounding rate, APR

Which of the following interest rate quotes is NOT equivalent to a 10% effective annual rate of return? Assume that each year has 12 months, each month has 30 days, each day has 24 hours, each hour has 60 minutes and each minute has 60 seconds. APR stands for Annualised Percentage Rate.

Question 710 continuously compounding rate, continuously compounding rate conversion

A continuously compounded monthly return of 1% ##(r_\text{cc monthly})## is equivalent to a continuously compounded annual return ##(r_\text{cc annual})## of:

Question 712 effective rate conversion

An effective monthly return of 1% ##(r_\text{eff monthly})## is equivalent to an effective annual return ##(r_\text{eff annual})## of:

Question 714 return distribution, no explanation

Which of the following quantities is commonly assumed to be normally distributed?

Question 716 return distribution

The below three graphs show probability density functions (PDF) of three different random variables Red, Green and Blue.

Which of the below statements is NOT correct?

Question 725 return distribution, mean and median returns

Question 718 arithmetic and geometric averages

The symbol ##\text{GDR}_{0\rightarrow 1}## represents a stock's gross discrete return per annum over the first year. ##\text{GDR}_{0\rightarrow 1} = P_1/P_0##. The subscript indicates the time period that the return is mentioned over. So for example, ##\text{AAGDR}_{1 \rightarrow 3}## is the arithmetic average GDR measured over the two year period from years 1 to 3, but it is expressed as a per annum rate.

Which of the below statements about the arithmetic and geometric average GDR is NOT correct?

(a) Arithmetic average gross discrete return is ##\text{AAGDR}_{0\rightarrow T} = \dfrac{\text{GDR}_{0 \rightarrow 1}+\text{GDR}_{1\rightarrow 2}+...+\text{GDR}_{T-1 \rightarrow T}}{T}##

(b) Geometric average gross discrete return is ##\text{GAGDR}_{0\rightarrow T} = \dfrac{\text{GDR}_{0 \rightarrow 1} . \text{GDR}_{1\rightarrow 2} ... \text{GDR}_{T-1 \rightarrow T}}{T}##

(c) The geometric average gross discrete return can be quickly found using the first ##(P_0)## and last ##(P_T)## prices. ##\text{GAGDR}_{0\rightarrow T} = \left( \dfrac{P_T}{P_0} \right)^{1/T}##

(d) The arithmetic average is always bigger than or equal to the geometric average, ##\text{AAGDR} \ge \text{GAGDR}##.

(e) The arithmetic and geometric averages of returns will be equal if the variance of the stock's returns is zero.

Question 811 log-normal distribution, mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages

Which of the following statements about probability distributions is NOT correct?

Question 721 mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate

Fred owns some Commonwealth Bank (CBA) shares. He has calculated CBA’s monthly returns for each month in the past 20 years using this formula:

###r_\text{t monthly}=\ln⁡ \left( \dfrac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} \right)###

He then took the arithmetic average and found it to be 1% per month using this formula:

###\bar{r}_\text{monthly}= \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( r_\text{t monthly} \right)} }{T} =0.01=1\% \text{ per month}###

He also found the standard deviation of these monthly returns which was 5% per month:

###\sigma_\text{monthly} = \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( \left( r_\text{t monthly} - \bar{r}_\text{monthly} \right)^2 \right)} }{T} =0.05=5\%\text{ per month}###

Which of the below statements about Fred’s CBA shares is NOT correct? Assume that the past historical average return is the true population average of future expected returns.

(a) The returns ##r_\text{t monthly}## are continuously compounded monthly returns and are likely to be normally distributed, so the mean, median and mode of these continuously compounded returns are all equal to 1% per month.

(b) The annualised average continuously compounded return is ##\bar{r}_\text{cc annual}=12×0.01=0.1=12\%\text{ pa}##. The annualised standard deviation is ##\sigma_\text{annual} = \sqrt{12}×0.05=0.173205081=17.32\%\text{ pa}##.

(c) Over the next 10 years the mean, median and mode continuously compounded 10 year returns will all equal ##0.01 \times 12 \times 10 = 120\%##.

(d) Over the next 10 years the expected mean gross discrete 10 year return is ##e^{(0.01 - 0.05^2/2)×12×10} = 2.857651118## and the median gross discrete 10 year return is ##e^{(0.01 + 0.05^2/2)×12×10}=3.857425531##.

(e) If the current price of the CBA shares is $75, then in 10 years they’re expected to have a mean value of ##75×e^{(0.01 + 0.05^2/2)×12×10} = 289.3069148## and a median value of ##75×e^{0.01×12×10}=249.0087692##.

Question 722 mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate

Here is a table of stock prices and returns. Which of the statements below the table is NOT correct?

Price and Return Population Statistics
Time	Prices	LGDR	GDR	NDR
0	100
1	50	-0.6931	0.5	-0.5
2	100	0.6931	2	1

Arithmetic average		0	1.25	0.25
Arithmetic standard deviation		0.9802	1.0607	1.0607

(a) The geometric average of the gross discrete returns (GAGDR) equals 1 which is 100%.

(b) ##\text{GAGDR} = \exp \left( \text{AALGDR} \right)##. The GAGDR is equal to the natural exponent of the arithmetic average of the logarithms of the gross discrete returns (AALGDR).

(c) ##\text{GAGDR} = \left( P_T/P_0 \right)^{1/T}##. The GAGDR equals the ratio of the last and first prices raised to the power of the inverse of the number of time periods between them.

(d) ##\text{LGAGDR} = \text{AALGDR}##. This is always true, regardless of the distribution of the prices or returns and the number of return observations. The logarithm of the geometric average of the gross discrete returns (LGAGDR) is always equal to the arithmetic average of the logarithms of the gross discrete returns (AALGDR).

(e) ##\text{LAAGDR} = \text{AALGDR} + \text{SDLGDR}^2/2##. This is always true, regardless of the distribution of the prices or returns and the number of return observations. The logarithm of the arithmetic average of the gross discrete returns (LAAGDR) equals the arithmetic average of the logarithms of the gross discrete returns (AALGDR) plus half the variance of the LGDR's.

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