# Fight Finance

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The symbol $\text{GDR}_{0\rightarrow 1}$ represents a stock's gross discrete return per annum over the first year. $\text{GDR}_{0\rightarrow 1} = P_1/P_0$. The subscript indicates the time period that the return is mentioned over. So for example, $\text{AAGDR}_{1 \rightarrow 3}$ is the arithmetic average GDR measured over the two year period from years 1 to 3, but it is expressed as a per annum rate.

Which of the below statements about the arithmetic and geometric average GDR is NOT correct?

A stock has an arithmetic average continuously compounded return (AALGDR) of 10% pa, a standard deviation of continuously compounded returns (SDLGDR) of 80% pa and current stock price of $1. Assume that stock prices are log-normally distributed. In one year, what do you expect the mean and median prices to be? The answer options are given in the same order. A stock has an arithmetic average continuously compounded return (AALGDR) of 10% pa, a standard deviation of continuously compounded returns (SDLGDR) of 80% pa and current stock price of$1. Assume that stock prices are log-normally distributed.

In 5 years, what do you expect the mean and median prices to be? The answer options are given in the same order.

Fred owns some Commonwealth Bank (CBA) shares. He has calculated CBA’s monthly returns for each month in the past 20 years using this formula:

$$r_\text{t monthly}=\ln⁡ \left( \dfrac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} \right)$$

He then took the arithmetic average and found it to be 1% per month using this formula:

$$\bar{r}_\text{monthly}= \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( r_\text{t monthly} \right)} }{T} =0.01=1\% \text{ per month}$$

He also found the standard deviation of these monthly returns which was 5% per month:

$$\sigma_\text{monthly} = \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( \left( r_\text{t monthly} - \bar{r}_\text{monthly} \right)^2 \right)} }{T} =0.05=5\%\text{ per month}$$

Which of the below statements about Fred’s CBA shares is NOT correct? Assume that the past historical average return is the true population average of future expected returns.

Here is a table of stock prices and returns. Which of the statements below the table is NOT correct?

 Price and Return Population Statistics Time Prices LGDR GDR NDR 0 100 1 50 -0.6931 0.5 -0.5 2 100 0.6931 2 1 Arithmetic average 0 1.25 0.25 Arithmetic standard deviation -0.6931 0.75 0.75

Here is a table of stock prices and returns. Which of the statements below the table is NOT correct?

 Price and Return Population Statistics Time Prices LGDR GDR NDR 0 100 1 99 -0.010050 0.990000 -0.010000 2 180.40 0.600057 1.822222 0.822222 3 112.73 0.470181 0.624889 0.375111 Arithmetic average 0.0399 1.1457 0.1457 Arithmetic standard deviation 0.4384 0.5011 0.5011

Fred owns some BHP shares. He has calculated BHP’s monthly returns for each month in the past 30 years using this formula:

$$r_\text{t monthly}=\ln⁡ \left( \dfrac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} \right)$$

He then took the arithmetic average and found it to be 0.8% per month using this formula:

$$\bar{r}_\text{monthly}= \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( r_\text{t monthly} \right)} }{T} =0.008=0.8\% \text{ per month}$$

He also found the standard deviation of these monthly returns which was 15% per month:

$$\sigma_\text{monthly} = \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( \left( r_\text{t monthly} - \bar{r}_\text{monthly} \right)^2 \right)} }{T} =0.15=15\%\text{ per month}$$

Assume that the past historical average return is the true population average of future expected returns and the stock's returns calculated above $(r_\text{t monthly})$ are normally distributed. Which of the below statements about Fred’s BHP shares is NOT correct?

A risk manager has identified that their hedge fund’s continuously compounded portfolio returns are normally distributed with a mean of 10% pa and a standard deviation of 30% pa. The hedge fund’s portfolio is currently valued at $100 million. Assume that there is no estimation error in these figures and that the normal cumulative density function at 1.644853627 is 95%. Which of the following statements is NOT correct? All answers are rounded to the nearest dollar. A risk manager has identified that their pension fund’s continuously compounded portfolio returns are normally distributed with a mean of 5% pa and a standard deviation of 20% pa. The fund’s portfolio is currently valued at$1 million. Assume that there is no estimation error in the above figures. To simplify your calculations, all answers below use 2.33 as an approximation for the normal inverse cumulative density function at 99%. All answers are rounded to the nearest dollar. Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

A risk manager has identified that their investment fund’s continuously compounded portfolio returns are normally distributed with a mean of 10% pa and a standard deviation of 40% pa. The fund’s portfolio is currently valued at \$1 million. Assume that there is no estimation error in the above figures. To simplify your calculations, all answers below use 2.33 as an approximation for the normal inverse cumulative density function at 99%. All answers are rounded to the nearest dollar. Assume one month is 1/12 of a year. Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

Which of the following statements about probability distributions is NOT correct?

Who was the first theorist to endorse the maximisiation of the geometric average gross discrete return for investors (not gamblers) since it gave a "...portfolio that has a greater probability of being as valuable or more valuable than any other significantly different portfolio at the end of n years, n being large"?

(a) Daniel Bernoulli.

Gross discrete returns in different states of the world are presented in the table below. A gross discrete return is defined as $P_1/P_0$, where $P_0$ is the price now and $P_1$ is the expected price in the future. An investor can purchase only a single asset, A, B, C or D. Assume that a portfolio of assets is not possible.

 Gross Discrete Returns In Different States of the World Investment World states (probability) asset Good (50%) Bad (50%) A 2 0.5 B 1.1 0.9 C 1.1 0.95 D 1.01 1.01

Which of the following statements about the different assets is NOT correct? Asset: