Question 790 mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate, log-normal distribution, VaR, confidence interval
A risk manager has identified that their hedge fund’s continuously compounded portfolio returns are normally distributed with a mean of 10% pa and a standard deviation of 30% pa. The hedge fund’s portfolio is currently valued at $100 million. Assume that there is no estimation error in these figures and that the normal cumulative density function at 1.644853627 is 95%.
Which of the following statements is NOT correct? All answers are rounded to the nearest dollar.
Question 791 mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate, log-normal distribution, VaR, confidence interval
A risk manager has identified that their pension fund’s continuously compounded portfolio returns are normally distributed with a mean of 5% pa and a standard deviation of 20% pa. The fund’s portfolio is currently valued at $1 million. Assume that there is no estimation error in the above figures. To simplify your calculations, all answers below use 2.33 as an approximation for the normal inverse cumulative density function at 99%. All answers are rounded to the nearest dollar. Which of the following statements is NOT correct?
A company has a 95% daily Value at Risk (VaR) of $1 million. The units of this VaR are in:
Question 948 VaR, expected shortfall
Below is a historical sample of returns on the S&P500 capital index.
| S&P500 Capital Index Daily Returns Ranked from Best to Worst |
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| 10,000 trading days from 4th August 1977 to 24 March 2017 based on closing prices. |
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| Rank | Date (DD-MM-YY) |
Continuously compounded daily return (% per day) |
| 1 | 21-10-87 | 9.23 |
| 2 | 08-03-83 | 8.97 |
| 3 | 13-11-08 | 8.3 |
| 4 | 30-09-08 | 8.09 |
| 5 | 28-10-08 | 8.01 |
| 6 | 29-10-87 | 7.28 |
| … | … | … |
| 9980 | 11-12-08 | -5.51 |
| 9981 | 22-10-08 | -5.51 |
| 9982 | 08-08-11 | -5.54 |
| 9983 | 22-09-08 | -5.64 |
| 9984 | 11-09-86 | -5.69 |
| 9985 | 30-11-87 | -5.88 |
| 9986 | 14-04-00 | -5.99 |
| 9987 | 07-10-98 | -6.06 |
| 9988 | 08-01-88 | -6.51 |
| 9989 | 27-10-97 | -6.55 |
| 9990 | 13-10-89 | -6.62 |
| 9991 | 15-10-08 | -6.71 |
| 9992 | 29-09-08 | -6.85 |
| 9993 | 07-10-08 | -6.91 |
| 9994 | 14-11-08 | -7.64 |
| 9995 | 01-12-08 | -7.79 |
| 9996 | 29-10-08 | -8.05 |
| 9997 | 26-10-87 | -8.4 |
| 9998 | 31-08-98 | -8.45 |
| 9999 | 09-10-08 | -12.9 |
| 10000 | 19-10-87 | -23.36 |
| Mean of all 10,000: | 0.0354 | |
| Sample standard deviation of all 10,000: | 1.2062 | |
| Sources: Bloomberg and S&P. | ||
Assume that the one-tail Z-statistic corresponding to a probability of 99.9% is exactly 3.09. Which of the following statements is NOT correct? Based on the historical data, the 99.9% daily: