Fight Finance

Question 82  portfolio return

Portfolio Details
Stock	Expected return	Standard deviation	Correlation	Dollars invested
A	0.1	0.4	0.5	60
B	0.2	0.6		140

What is the expected return of the above portfolio?

(a) 0.15

(b) 0.17

(c) 0.1908

(d) 0.2412

(e) 0.34

Question 249  equivalent annual cash flow, effective rate conversion

Details of two different types of desserts or edible treats are given below:

• High-sugar treats like candy, chocolate and ice cream make a person very happy. High sugar treats are cheap at only $2 per day.
• Low-sugar treats like nuts, cheese and fruit make a person equally happy if these foods are of high quality. Low sugar treats are more expensive at $4 per day.

The advantage of low-sugar treats is that a person only needs to pay the dentist $2,000 for fillings and root canal therapy once every 15 years. Whereas with high-sugar treats, that treatment needs to be done every 5 years.

The real discount rate is 10%, given as an effective annual rate. Assume that there are 365 days in every year and that all cash flows are real. The inflation rate is 3% given as an effective annual rate.

Find the equivalent annual cash flow (EAC) of the high-sugar treats and low-sugar treats, including dental costs. The below choices are listed in that order.

Ignore the pain of dental therapy, personal preferences and other factors.

(a) -$332.8709, -$68.2065

(b) -$327.595, -$62.9476

(c) -$828.9808, -$808.5709

(d) -$829.6304, -$810.2613

(e) -$1,093.4153, -$1,594.5881

Question 282  expected and historical returns, income and capital returns

You're the boss of an investment bank's equities research team. Your five analysts are each trying to find the expected total return over the next year of shares in a mining company. The mining firm:

• Is regarded as a mature company since it's quite stable in size and was floated around 30 years ago. It is not a high-growth company;
• Share price is very sensitive to changes in the price of the market portfolio, economic growth, the exchange rate and commodities prices. Due to this, its standard deviation of total returns is much higher than that of the market index;
• Experienced tough times in the last 10 years due to unexpected falls in commodity prices.
• Shares are traded in an active liquid market.

Your team of analysts present their findings, and everyone has different views. While there's no definitive true answer, whose calculation of the expected total return is the most plausible? Assume that:

• The analysts' source data is correct and true, but their inferences might be wrong;
• All returns and yields are given as effective annual nominal rates.

(a) Alice says 5% pa since she calculated that this was the average total yield on government bonds over the last 10 years. She says that this is also the expected total yield implied by current prices on one year government bonds.

(b) Bob says 4% pa since he calculated that this was the average total return on the mining stock over the last 10 years.

(c) Cate says 3% pa since she calculated that this was the average growth rate of the share price over the last 10 years.

(d) Dave says 6% pa since he calculated that this was the average growth rate of the share market price index (not the accumulation index) over the last 10 years.

(e) Eve says 15% pa since she calculated that this was the discount rate implied by the dividend discount model using the current share price, forecast dividend in one year and a 3% growth rate in dividends thereafter, which is the expected long term inflation rate.

Question 354  PE ratio, Multiples valuation

Which firms tend to have low forward-looking price-earnings (PE) ratios?

Only consider firms with positive earnings, disregard firms with negative earnings and therefore negative PE ratios.

(a) Illiquid small private companies.

(b) High growth technology firms.

(c) Firms expected to have temporarily low earnings over the next year, but with higher earnings later.

(d) Firms with a very low level of systematic risk.

(e) Firms whose assets include a very large proportion of cash.

Question 416  real estate, market efficiency, income and capital returns, DDM, CAPM

A residential real estate investor believes that house prices will grow at a rate of 5% pa and that rents will grow by 2% pa forever.

All rates are given as nominal effective annual returns. Assume that:

• His forecast is true.
• Real estate is and always will be fairly priced and the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is true.
• Ignore all costs such as taxes, agent fees, maintenance and so on.
• All rental income cash flow is paid out to the owner, so there is no re-investment and therefore no additions or improvements made to the property.
• The non-monetary benefits of owning real estate and renting remain constant.

Which one of the following statements is NOT correct? Over time:

(a) The rental yield will fall and approach zero.

(b) The total return will fall and approach the capital return (5% pa).

(c) One or all of the following must fall: the systematic risk of real estate, the risk free rate or the market risk premium.

(d) If the country's nominal wealth growth rate is 4% pa and the nominal real estate growth rate is 5% pa then real estate will approach 100% of the country's wealth over time.

(e) If the country's nominal gross domestic production (GDP) growth rate is 4% pa and the nominal real estate rent growth rate is 2% pa then real estate rent will approach 100% of the country's GDP over time.

Question 574  inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows, NPV

What is the present value of a nominal payment of $100 in 5 years? The real discount rate is 10% pa and the inflation rate is 3% pa.

(a) $71.2986

(b) $62.0921

(c) $61.5028

(d) $54.276

(e) $53.5612

Question 600  foreign exchange rate

A Chinese man wishes to convert AUD 1 million into Chinese Renminbi (RMB, also called the Yuan (CNY)). The exchange rate is 6.35 RMB per USD, and 0.72 USD per AUD. How much is the AUD 1 million worth in RMB?

(a) RMB 8,819,444

(b) RMB 6,350,000

(c) RMB 4,572,000

(d) RMB 218,723

(e) RMB 113,386

Question 672  CAPM, beta

A stock has a beta of 1.5. The market's expected total return is 10% pa and the risk free rate is 5% pa, both given as effective annual rates.

What do you think will be the stock's expected return over the next year, given as an effective annual rate?

(a) 5% pa

(b) 7.5% pa

(c) 10% pa

(d) 12.5% pa

(e) 20% pa

Question 702  utility, risk aversion, utility function, gamble

Mr Blue, Miss Red and Mrs Green are people with different utility functions.

Each person has $50 of initial wealth. A coin toss game is offered to each person at a casino where the player can win or lose $50. Each player can flip a coin and if they flip heads, they receive $50. If they flip tails then they will lose $50. Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

(a) Mr Blue would enjoy the gamble.

(b) Miss Red would be indifferent to gambling or not.

(c) Mrs Green would dislike the gamble.

(d) Mr Blue's certainty equivalent of the risky gamble is $70.71. This is more than his current wealth which is why he would like to gamble.

(e) Miss Red's certainty equivalent of the risky gamble is $50. This is the same as her current wealth which is why she is indifferent to gambling or not.

Question 890  foreign exchange rate, monetary policy, no explanation

The market expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to increase the policy rate by 25 basis points at their next meeting. The current exchange rate is 0.8 USD per AUD.

Then unexpectedly, the RBA announce that they will increase the policy rate by 50 basis points due to increased fears of inflation.

What do you expect to happen to Australia's exchange rate on the day when the surprise announcement is made? The Australian dollar is likely to suddenly:

(a) Remain at 0.8 USD per AUD.

(b) Appreciate against the USD to be, say, 0.81 USD per AUD.

(c) Appreciate against the USD to be, say, 0.79 USD per AUD.

(d) Depreciate against the USD to be, say, 0.81 USD per AUD.

(e) Depreciate against the USD to be, say, 0.79 USD per AUD.