On 1 February 2016 you were told that your refinery company will need to purchase oil on 1 July 2016. You were afraid of the oil price rising between now and then so you bought some August 2016 futures contracts on 1 February 2016 to hedge against changes in the oil price. On 1 February 2016 the oil price was $40 and the August 2016 futures price was $43.
It's now 1 July 2016 and oil price is $45 and the August 2016 futures price is $46. You bought the spot oil and closed out your futures position on 1 July 2016.
What was the effective price paid for the oil, taking into account basis risk? All spot and futures oil prices quoted above and below are per barrel.
You intend to use futures on oil to hedge the risk of purchasing oil. There is no cross-hedging risk. Oil pays no dividends but it’s costly to store. Which of the following statements about basis risk in this scenario is NOT correct?