**Question 790** mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate, log-normal distribution, VaR, confidence interval

A risk manager has identified that their hedge fund’s continuously compounded portfolio returns are normally distributed with a mean of **10**% pa and a standard deviation of **30**% pa. The hedge fund’s portfolio is currently valued at $**100** million. Assume that there is no estimation error in these figures and that the normal cumulative density function at 1.644853627 is 95%.

Which of the following statements is **NOT** correct? All answers are rounded to the nearest dollar.

**Question 791** mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate, log-normal distribution, VaR, confidence interval

A risk manager has identified that their pension fund’s continuously compounded portfolio returns are normally distributed with a mean of **5**% pa and a standard deviation of **20**% pa. The fund’s portfolio is currently valued at $**1** million. Assume that there is no estimation error in the above figures. To simplify your calculations, all answers below use **2.33** as an approximation for the normal inverse cumulative density function at **99**%. All answers are rounded to the nearest dollar. Which of the following statements is **NOT** correct?

**Question 792** mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate, log-normal distribution, confidence interval

A risk manager has identified that their investment fund’s continuously compounded portfolio returns are normally distributed with a mean of **10**% pa and a standard deviation of **40**% pa. The fund’s portfolio is currently valued at $**1** million. Assume that there is no estimation error in the above figures. To simplify your calculations, all answers below use **2.33** as an approximation for the normal inverse cumulative density function at 99%. All answers are rounded to the nearest dollar. Assume one month is 1/12 of a year. Which of the following statements is **NOT** correct?

A stock's returns are normally distributed with a mean of 10% pa and a standard deviation of 20 percentage points pa. What is the **90**% confidence interval of returns over the next year? Note that the Z-statistic corresponding to a **one**-tail:

- 90% normal probability density function is 1.282.
- 95% normal probability density function is 1.645.
- 97.5% normal probability density function is 1.960.

The **90**% confidence interval of annual returns is between:

A stock's returns are normally distributed with a mean of 10% pa and a standard deviation of 20 percentage points pa. What is the **95**% confidence interval of returns over the next year? Note that the Z-statistic corresponding to a **one**-tail:

- 90% normal probability density function is 1.282.
- 95% normal probability density function is 1.645.
- 97.5% normal probability density function is 1.960.

The **95**% confidence interval of annual returns is between:

A stock has an expected return of 10% pa and you're 90% sure that over the next year, the return will be between -15% and 35%. The stock's returns are normally distributed. Note that the Z-statistic corresponding to a **one**-tail:

- 90% normal probability density function is 1.282.
- 95% normal probability density function is 1.645.
- 97.5% normal probability density function is 1.960.

What is the stock’s standard deviation of returns in percentage points per annum (pp pa)?

A stock's returns are normally distributed with a mean of **8**% pa and a standard deviation of **15** percentage points pa. What is the **99**% confidence interval of returns over the next year? Note that the Z-statistic corresponding to a **one**-tail:

- 90% normal probability density function is 1.282.
- 95% normal probability density function is 1.645.
- 97.5% normal probability density function is 1.960.
- 99% normal probability density function is 2.326.
- 99.5% normal probability density function is 2.576

The **99**% confidence interval of annual returns is between: