Fight Finance

Question 870  income and capital returns

An Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock was purchased by an investor for $120 and one year later was sold for $150. A dividend of $4 was also collected at the end of the year just before the stock was sold.

Which of the following statements about the stock investment is NOT correct? Ignore taxes.

Over the year, the investor made a:

(a) Capital gain of $30

(b) Dividend income of $4.

(c) Capital return of 25%.

(d) Dividend yield of 2.6667%.

(e) Total return of 28.3333%.

.

Question 248  CAPM, DDM, income and capital returns

The total return of any asset can be broken down in different ways. One possible way is to use the dividend discount model (or Gordon growth model):

###p_0 = \frac{c_1}{r_\text{total}-r_\text{capital}}###

Which, since ##c_1/p_0## is the income return (##r_\text{income}##), can be expressed as:

###r_\text{total}=r_\text{income}+r_\text{capital}###

So the total return of an asset is the income component plus the capital or price growth component.

Another way to break up total return is to use the Capital Asset Pricing Model:

###r_\text{total}=r_\text{f}+β(r_\text{m}- r_\text{f})###

###r_\text{total}=r_\text{time value}+r_\text{risk premium}###

So the risk free rate is the time value of money and the term ##β(r_\text{m}- r_\text{f})## is the compensation for taking on systematic risk.

Using the above theory and your general knowledge, which of the below equations, if any, are correct?

(I) ##r_\text{income}=r_\text{time value}##

(II) ##r_\text{income}=r_\text{risk premium}##

(III) ##r_\text{capital}=r_\text{time value}##

(IV) ##r_\text{capital}=r_\text{risk premium}##

(V) ##r_\text{income}+r_\text{capital}=r_\text{time value}+r_\text{risk premium}##

Which of the equations are correct?

(a) I, IV and V only.

(b) II, III and V only.

(c) V only.

(d) All are true.

(e) None are true.

Question 528  DDM, income and capital returns

The perpetuity with growth formula, also known as the dividend discount model (DDM) or Gordon growth model, is appropriate for valuing a company's shares. ##P_0## is the current share price, ##C_1## is next year's expected dividend, ##r## is the total required return and ##g## is the expected growth rate of the dividend.

###P_0=\dfrac{C_1}{r-g}###

The below graph shows the expected future price path of the company's shares. Which of the following statements about the graph is NOT correct?

(a) Between points A and B, the share price is expected to grow by ##r##.

(b) Between points B and C, the share price is expected to instantaneously fall by ##C_1##.

(c) Between points A and C, the share price is expected to grow by ##g##.

(d) Between points B and D, the share price is expected to grow by ##g##.

(e) Between points D and E, the share price is expected to instantaneously fall by ##C_1.(1+r)^1##.

Question 3  DDM, income and capital returns

The following equation is called the Dividend Discount Model (DDM), Gordon Growth Model or the perpetuity with growth formula: ### P_0 = \frac{ C_1 }{ r - g } ###

What is ##g##? The value ##g## is the long term expected:

(a) Income return of the stock.

(b) Capital return of the stock.

(c) Total return of the stock.

(d) Dividend yield of the stock.

(e) Price-earnings ratio of the stock.

Question 18  DDM, income and capital returns

The following equation is the Dividend Discount Model, also known as the 'Gordon Growth Model' or the 'Perpetuity with growth' equation.

### p_{0} = \frac{c_1}{r_{\text{eff}} - g_{\text{eff}}} ###

What is the discount rate '## r_\text{eff} ##' in this equation?

(a) The expected total return of the stock.

(b) The expected capital return of the stock.

(c) The expected dividend return of the stock.

(d) The expected income return of the stock.

(e) The expected growth rate of the stock price.

Question 201  DDM, income and capital returns

The following is the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) used to price stocks:

###P_0=\dfrac{C_1}{r-g}###

If the assumptions of the DDM hold and the stock is fairly priced, which one of the following statements is NOT correct? The long term expected:

(a) Dividend growth rate is equal to the long term expected growth rate of the stock price.

(b) Dividend growth rate is equal to the long term expected capital return of the stock.

(c) Dividend growth rate is equal to the long term expected dividend yield.

(d) Total return of the stock is equal to its long term required return.

(e) Total return of the stock is equal to the company's long term cost of equity.

Question 730  DDM, income and capital returns, no explanation

A stock’s current price is $1. Its expected total return is 10% pa and its long term expected capital return is 4% pa. It pays an annual dividend and the next one will be paid in one year. All rates are given as effective annual rates. The dividend discount model is thought to be a suitable model for the stock. Ignore taxes. Which of the following statements about the stock is NOT correct?

(a) The expected dividend yield is 6% pa.

(b) The expected growth rate of the dividend is 4% pa.

(c) The dividend in one year is expected to be $0.06.

(d) The price is expected to be $1.06 in one year, just before the dividend is paid.

(e) The price is expected to be $1.04 in one year, just after the dividend is paid.

Question 731  DDM, income and capital returns

In the dividend discount model (DDM), share prices fall when dividends are paid. Let the high price before the fall be called the peak, and the low price after the fall be called the trough.

###P_0=\dfrac{C_1}{r-g}###

Which of the following statements about the DDM is NOT correct?

(a) In between dividends, the stock price is expected to grow by the total return ‘r’.

(b) From trough to trough, the stock price is expected to grow by the capital return ‘g’.

(c) From peak to peak, the stock price is expected to grow by the capital return ‘g’.

(d) Dividends are expected to grow by the total return ‘r’.

(e) If the stock’s dividends are re-invested by using the cash to buy more stocks, then the growth rate of the shareholder’s wealth will be the total return ‘r’.

Question 255  bond pricing

In these tough economic times, central banks around the world have cut interest rates so low that they are practically zero. In some countries, government bond yields are also very close to zero.

A three year government bond with a face value of $100 and a coupon rate of 2% pa paid semi-annually was just issued at a yield of 0%. What is the price of the bond?

(a) 94.20452353

(b) 100

(c) 106

(d) 112

(e) The bond is priceless.

Question 339  bond pricing, inflation, market efficiency, income and capital returns

Economic statistics released this morning were a surprise: they show a strong chance of consumer price inflation (CPI) reaching 5% pa over the next 2 years.

This is much higher than the previous forecast of 3% pa.

A vanilla fixed-coupon 2-year risk-free government bond was issued at par this morning, just before the economic news was released.

What is the expected change in bond price after the economic news this morning, and in the next 2 years? Assume that:

• Inflation remains at 5% over the next 2 years.
• Investors demand a constant real bond yield.
• The bond price falls by the (after-tax) value of the coupon the night before the ex-coupon date, as in real life.

(a) Today the price would have increased significantly.
Over the next 2 years, the bond price is expected to increase, measured on each ex-coupon date.

(b) Today the price would have increased significantly.
Over the next 2 years, the bond price is expected to be unchanged, measured on each ex-coupon date.

(c) Today the price would have been unchanged.
Over the next 2 years, the bond price is expected to increase, measured on each ex-coupon date.

(d) Today the price would have decreased significantly.
Over the next 2 years, the bond price is expected to increase, measured on each ex-coupon date.

(e) Today the price would have decreased significantly.
Over the next 2 years, the bond price is expected to be unchanged, measured on each ex-coupon date.

Question 1015  RBA cash rate, monetary policy

Former Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Phil Lowe says that the RBA cash rate is the interest rate in the Australian:

(a) Money market.

(b) Term deposit market.

(c) Mortgage loan market.

(d) Bond market.

(e) Equity market.

Question 1016  RBA cash rate, monetary policy

Former RBA Governor Phil Lowe says that if the economy is growing very strongly, then prices might be growing too:

(a) Fast and the RBA board may need to raise interest rates.

(b) Fast and the RBA board may need to lower interest rates.

(c) Slow and the RBA board may need to raise interest rates.

(d) Slow and the RBA board may need to lower interest rates.

Question 1018  RBA cash rate, monetary policy, foreign exchange rate

RBA Governor Phil Lowe says that when the RBA raises the cash rate (by surprise), the Australian dollar (AUD) tends to:

(a) Appreciate against the USD, so the USD per AUD quote number may increase from say 0.7 to 0.71 USD per AUD.

(b) Appreciate against the USD, so the USD per AUD quote number may decrease from say 0.7 to 0.69 USD per AUD.

(c) Depreciate against the USD, so the USD per AUD quote number may increase from say 0.7 to 0.71 USD per AUD.

(d) Depreciate against the USD, so the USD per AUD quote number may decrease from say 0.7 to 0.69 USD per AUD.

Question 1019  RBA cash rate, monetary policy, wealth effect

Former RBA Governor Phil Lowe says that when the RBA raise the cash rate, asset prices tend to:

(a) Rise, making asset-holders feel wealthier and likely to spend more on consumption at the shops.

(b) Rise, making asset-holders feel poorer and likely to spend less on consumption at the shops.

(c) Fall, making asset-holders feel wealthier and likely to spend more on consumption at the shops.

(d) Fall, making asset-holders feel poorer and likely to spend less on consumption at the shops.

Question 846  monetary policy, fiscal policy

Below is the Australian central bank’s cash rate.

From 2011 to 2017 the Australian central bank has implemented:

(a) Expansionary fiscal policy.

(b) Contractionary fiscal policy.

(c) Expansionary monetary policy.

(d) Contractionary monetary policy.

(e) Neutral monetary policy.

Question 848  monetary policy, no explanation

Which of the following is NOT the Australian central bank’s responsibility?

(a) The stability of the currency of Australia.

(b) The maintenance of full employment in Australia.

(c) The economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia.

(d) To meet an agreed medium-term inflation target.

(e) To balance the federal government budget over the business cycle.

Question 1020  Federal funds rate, monetary policy, dot plot

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell showed the 'dot plot' of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members' estimated future Fed fund rates following their quarterly summary of economic projections on 15 Dec 2021. The dot plot shows that committee members intended to make monetary policy more:

(a) Loose by cutting the Fed funds rate in the future to increase inflation and GDP growth.

(b) Loose by cutting the Fed funds rate in the future to decrease inflation.

(c) Loose by raising the Fed funds rate in the future to increase inflation.

(d) Tight by raising the Fed funds rate in the future to increase inflation and GDP growth.

(e) Tight by raising the Fed funds rate in the future to decrease inflation.

Question 992  inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows

You currently have $100 in the bank which pays a 10% pa interest rate.

Oranges currently cost $1 each at the shop and inflation is 5% pa which is the expected growth rate in the orange price.

This information is summarised in the table below, with some parts missing that correspond to the answer options. All rates are given as effective annual rates. Note that when payments are not specified as real, as in this question, they're conventionally assumed to be nominal.

Wealth in Dollars and Oranges
Time (year)	Bank account wealth ($)	Orange price ($)	Wealth in oranges
0	100	1	100
1	110	1.05	(a)
2	(b)	(c)	(d)

 

Which of the following statements is NOT correct? Your:

(a) Real wealth at t=1 is $104.7619048 or 104.7619048 oranges.

(b) Nominal wealth at t=2 is $121.

(c) Orange price t=2 is $1.1025.

(d) Real wealth at t=2 is $109.7505669 or 109.7505669 oranges.

(e) Real interest rate is exactly 5% pa.

Question 456  inflation, effective rate

In the 'Austin Powers' series of movies, the character Dr. Evil threatens to destroy the world unless the United Nations pays him a ransom (video 1, video 2). Dr. Evil makes the threat on two separate occasions:

• In 1969 he demands a ransom of $1 million (=10^6), and again;
• In 1997 he demands a ransom of $100 billion (=10^11).

If Dr. Evil's demands are equivalent in real terms, in other words $1 million will buy the same basket of goods in 1969 as $100 billion would in 1997, what was the implied inflation rate over the 28 years from 1969 to 1997?

The answer choices below are given as effective annual rates:

(a) 0.5086% pa

(b) 1.5086% pa

(c) 5.0859% pa

(d) 50.8591% pa

(e) 150.8591% pa

Question 526  real and nominal returns and cash flows, inflation, no explanation

How can a nominal cash flow be precisely converted into a real cash flow?

(a) ##C_\text{real, t}=C_\text{nominal,t}.(1+r_\text{inflation})^t##

(b) ##C_\text{real,t}=\dfrac{C_\text{nominal,t}}{(1+r_\text{inflation})^t} ##

(c) ##C_\text{real,t}=\dfrac{C_\text{nominal,t}}{r_\text{inflation}} ##

(d) ##C_\text{real,t}=C_\text{nominal,t}.r_\text{inflation} ##

(e) ##C_\text{real,t}=C_\text{nominal,t}.r_\text{inflation}.t##

Question 578  inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows

Which of the following statements about inflation is NOT correct?

(a) Real returns approximately equal nominal returns less the inflation rate.

(b) Constant prices are the same as real prices.

(c) Current prices are the same as nominal prices.

(d) If your nominal wage grows by inflation, then your real wage won't change because you will be able to buy the same amount of goods and services as before.

(e) Interest rates advertised at the bank are usually quoted in real terms.

Question 664  real and nominal returns and cash flows, inflation, no explanation

What is the present value of real payments of $100 every year forever, with the first payment in one year? The nominal discount rate is 7% pa and the inflation rate is 4% pa.

(a) $3,466.6667

(b) $3,333.3333

(c) $3,205.1282

(d) $1,485.7143

(e) $1,428.5714

Question 1023  monetary policy, inflation, breakeven inflation rate

If the breakeven inflation rate was far above the US Fed's long term 2% average inflation target, the Fed would be expected to:

(a) Raise the Fed funds rate to reduce inflation.

(b) Raise the Fed funds rate to increase inflation and avoid deflation.

(c) Cut the Fed funds rate to reduce inflation.

(d) Cut the Fed funds rate to increase inflation and avoid deflation.

(e) Do nothing.

Question 317  foreign exchange rate, American and European terms

If the USD appreciates against the AUD, the European terms quote of the AUD will or ?

Question 319  foreign exchange rate, monetary policy, American and European terms

Investors expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep the policy rate steady at their next meeting.

Then unexpectedly, the RBA announce that they will increase the policy rate by 25 basis points due to fears that the economy is growing too fast and that inflation will be above their target rate of 2 to 3 per cent.

What do you expect to happen to Australia's exchange rate in the short term? The Australian dollar is likely to:

(a) Appreciate against the USD, so the 'European terms' quote of the AUD (AUD per USD) will increase.

(b) Depreciate against the USD, so the 'European terms' quote of the AUD (AUD per USD) will decrease.

(c) Appreciate against the USD, so the 'European terms' quote of the AUD (AUD per USD) will decrease.

(d) Depreciate against the USD, so the 'European terms' quote of the AUD (AUD per USD) will increase.

(e) Appreciate against the USD, so the 'American terms' quote of the AUD (USD per AUD) will decrease.

Question 320  foreign exchange rate, monetary policy, American and European terms

Investors expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to decrease the overnight cash rate at their next meeting.

Then unexpectedly, the RBA announce that they will keep the policy rate unchanged.

What do you expect to happen to Australia's exchange rate in the short term? The Australian dollar is likely to:

(a) Appreciate against the USD, so the 'European terms' quote of the AUD (AUD per USD) will increase.

(b) Depreciate against the USD, so the 'European terms' quote of the AUD (AUD per USD) will decrease.

(c) Appreciate against the USD, so the 'European terms' quote of the AUD (AUD per USD) will decrease.

(d) Depreciate against the USD, so the 'European terms' quote of the AUD (AUD per USD) will increase.

(e) Be unaffected by the change in the policy rate, so the exchange rate will remain the same.

Question 605  cross currency interest rate parity, foreign exchange rate

If the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep its interbank overnight cash rate at 2% pa while the US Federal Reserve is expected to keep its federal funds rate at 0% pa over the next year, is the AUD is expected to , , or remain against the USD over the next year?

Question 614  debt terminology

You buy a house funded using a home loan. Have you or debt?

Question 615  debt terminology

You buy a house funded using a home loan. Have you or debt?

Question 94  leverage, capital structure, real estate

Your friend just bought a house for $400,000. He financed it using a $320,000 mortgage loan and a deposit of $80,000.

In the context of residential housing and mortgages, the 'equity' tied up in the value of a person's house is the value of the house less the value of the mortgage. So the initial equity your friend has in his house is $80,000. Let this amount be E, let the value of the mortgage be D and the value of the house be V. So ##V=D+E##.

If house prices suddenly fall by 10%, what would be your friend's percentage change in equity (E)? Assume that the value of the mortgage is unchanged and that no income (rent) was received from the house during the short time over which house prices fell.

Remember:

### r_{0\rightarrow1}=\frac{p_1-p_0+c_1}{p_0} ###

where ##r_{0-1}## is the return (percentage change) of an asset with price ##p_0## initially, ##p_1## one period later, and paying a cash flow of ##c_1## at time ##t=1##.

(a) -100%

(b) -50%

(c) -12.5%

(d) -10%

(e) -8%

Question 301  leverage, capital structure, real estate

Your friend just bought a house for $1,000,000. He financed it using a $900,000 mortgage loan and a deposit of $100,000.

In the context of residential housing and mortgages, the 'equity' or 'net wealth' tied up in a house is the value of the house less the value of the mortgage loan. Assuming that your friend's only asset is his house, his net wealth is $100,000.

If house prices suddenly fall by 15%, what would be your friend's percentage change in net wealth?

Assume that:

• No income (rent) was received from the house during the short time over which house prices fell.
• Your friend will not declare bankruptcy, he will always pay off his debts.

(a) -1,000%

(b) -150%

(c) -100%

(d) -15%

(e) -10%

Question 904  option, Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing, option on future on stock index

A six month European-style call option on six month S&P500 index futures has a strike price of 2800 points.

The six month futures price on the S&P500 index is currently at 2740.805274 points. The futures underlie the call option.

The S&P500 stock index currently trades at 2700 points. The stock index underlies the futures. The stock index's standard deviation of continuously compounded returns is 25% pa.

The risk-free interest rate is 5% pa continuously compounded.

Use the Black-Scholes-Merton formula to calculate the option price. The call option price now is:

(a) 226.43 points

(b) 220.56 points

(c) 176.21 points

(d) 162.83 points

(e) 128.92 points

Question 795  option, Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing, option delta, no explanation

Which of the following quantities from the Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing formula gives the Delta of a European put option?

(a) ##N[d_1]##

(b) ##N[d_2]##

(c) ##−N[−d_1]##

(d) ##−N[−d_2]##

(e) ##N[−d_2]##

Question 385  Merton model of corporate debt, real option, option

A risky firm will last for one period only (t=0 to 1), then it will be liquidated. So it's assets will be sold and the debt holders and equity holders will be paid out in that order. The firm has the following quantities:

##V## = Market value of assets.

##E## = Market value of (levered) equity.

##D## = Market value of zero coupon bonds.

##F_1## = Total face value of zero coupon bonds which is promised to be paid in one year.

The levered equity graph above contains bold labels a to e. Which of the following statements about those labels is NOT correct?

(a) Label a represents the market value of equity ##(E)## at t=0 on the red curved line or t=1 on the blue crooked line.

(b) Label b represents the market value of equity now ##(E_0)##.

(c) Label c represents the market value of equity if the assets were liquidated right now.

(d) Label d represents the face value of debt at maturity ##(F_1)##.

(e) Label e represents the market value of debt ##(D)## at t=0 on the red curved line or t=1 on the blue crooked line.

Question 386  Merton model of corporate debt, real option, option

A risky firm will last for one period only (t=0 to 1), then it will be liquidated. So it's assets will be sold and the debt holders and equity holders will be paid out in that order. The firm has the following quantities:

##V## = Market value of assets.

##E## = Market value of (levered) equity.

##D## = Market value of zero coupon bonds.

##F_1## = Total face value of zero coupon bonds which is promised to be paid in one year.

The risky corporate debt graph above contains bold labels a to e. Which of the following statements about those labels is NOT correct?

(a) Label a represents the market value of equity ##(E)## at t=0 on the red curved line or t=1 on the blue crooked line.

(b) Label b represents the face value of debt at maturity ##(F_1)##.

(c) Label c represents the market value of debt now ##(D_0)##.

(d) Label d represents the face value of debt at maturity ##(F_1)##.

(e) Label e represents the market value of assets ##(V)## at t=0 on the red curved line or t=1 on the blue crooked line.

Question 433  Merton model of corporate debt, real option, option, no explanation

A risky firm will last for one period only (t=0 to 1), then it will be liquidated. So it's assets will be sold and the debt holders and equity holders will be paid out in that order. The firm has the following quantities:

##V## = Market value of assets.

##E## = Market value of (levered) equity.

##D## = Market value of zero coupon bonds.

##F_1## = Total face value of zero coupon bonds which is promised to be paid in one year.

What is the payoff to equity holders at maturity, assuming that they keep their shares until maturity?

(a) ##max(V_1 - F_1, 0)##.

(b) ##max(V_1 - D_1, 0)##.

(c) ##max(F_1 - V_1, 0)##.

(d) ##max(D_1 - V_1, 0)##.

(e) ##-min(F_1 - V_1, 0)##.

Question 694  utility

Which of the below statements about utility is NOT generally accepted by economists? Most people are thought to:

(a) Prefer more to less, meaning that they will always like to have more wealth.

(b) Be risk averse, meaning that they dislike risk as measured by the standard deviation of wealth.

(c) Have a positively sloped utility function, so the gradient or first derivative of the utility function is always positive.

(d) Have a utility function that increases at a diminishing rate. So the shape is concave down like a frown, or the second derivative is always negative.

(e) Have a utility function that rises until it reaches the satiation point, then it falls because too much wealth causes problems.

Question 695  utility, risk aversion, utility function

Mr Blue, Miss Red and Mrs Green are people with different utility functions. Which of the statements about the 3 utility functions is NOT correct?

(a) All rational people prefer more wealth to less.

(b) Mr Blue is risk averse.

(c) Miss Red is risk neutral.

(d) Mrs Green is risk averse.

(e) Mrs Green may enjoy gambling.

Question 696  utility, risk aversion, utility function

Mr Blue, Miss Red and Mrs Green are people with different utility functions. Which of the statements about the 3 utility functions is NOT correct?

(a) Mr Blue prefers more wealth to less. Mrs Green enjoys losing wealth.

(b) Miss Red has the same utility no matter how much wealth she has.

(c) Mr Blue is risk averse.

(d) Miss Red is risk averse.

(e) Mrs Green is risk loving.

Question 699  utility, risk aversion, utility function, gamble

Mr Blue, Miss Red and Mrs Green are people with different utility functions.

Each person has $50 of initial wealth. A coin toss game is offered to each person at a casino where the player can win or lose $50. Each player can flip a coin and if they flip heads, they receive $50. If they flip tails then they will lose $50. Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

(a) Mr Blue's expected utility of wealth from gambling is 5 while refusing is 7.07. So the gamble makes him less happy.

(b) Mrs Green's expected utility of wealth from gambling is 7.07 while refusing is 5. So the gamble makes her more happy.

(c) Mr Blue's certainty equivalent of the risky gamble is $25. This is less than his current wealth of $50 which is why he would refuse.

(d) Miss Red's certainty equivalent of the risky gamble is $50. This is equal to her current wealth of $50 which is why she is indifferent to gambling or not.

(e) Mrs Green's certainty equivalent of the risky gamble is $70.71. This is more than her current wealth of $50 which is why she would accept.

Question 700  utility, risk aversion, utility function, gamble

Mr Blue, Miss Red and Mrs Green are people with different utility functions.

Each person has $50 of initial wealth. A coin toss game is offered to each person at a casino where the player can win or lose $50. Each player can flip a coin and if they flip heads, they receive $50. If they flip tails then they will lose $50. Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

(a) Mr Blue's expected utility of wealth from gambling is 7.5 while refusing is 8.54. So the gamble makes him less happy.

(b) Miss Red's expected utility of wealth from gambling is 5 and refusing is also 5. So the gamble doesn't affect her happiness at all.

(c) Mr Blue's certainty equivalent of the risky gamble is $25. This is less than his current wealth which is why he would refuse.

(d) Miss Red's certainty equivalent of the risky gamble is any wealth. She's indifferent since she always has the same level of happiness.

(e) Mrs Green's certainty equivalent of the risky gamble is $25. This is less than her current wealth which is why she would refuse.

Question 704  utility, risk aversion, utility function, gamble

Mr Blue, Miss Red and Mrs Green are people with different utility functions.

Each person has $256 of initial wealth. A coin toss game is offered to each person at a casino where the player can win or lose $256. Each player can flip a coin and if they flip heads, they receive $256. If they flip tails then they will lose $256. Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

(a) All people would appear rational to an economist since they prefer more wealth to less.

(b) Mrs Green and Miss Red would appear unusual to an economist since they are not risk averse.

(c) Mr Blue's certainty equivalent of the gamble is $64. This is less than his current wealth of $256 which is why he would refuse the gamble.

(d) Miss Red's certainty equivalent of the gamble is $256. This is the same as her current wealth of $256 which is why she would be indifferent to playing or not.

(e) Mrs Green's certainty equivalent of the gamble is $512. This is more than her current wealth of $256 which is why she would love to play.

Question 706  utility, risk aversion, utility function

Mr Blue, Miss Red and Mrs Green are people with different utility functions.

Note that a fair gamble is a bet that has an expected value of zero, such as paying $0.50 to win $1 in a coin flip with heads or nothing if it lands tails. Fairly priced insurance is when the expected present value of the insurance premiums is equal to the expected loss from the disaster that the insurance protects against, such as the cost of rebuilding a home after a catastrophic fire.

Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

(a) Mr Blue, Miss Red and Mrs Green all prefer more wealth to less. This is rational from an economist's point of view.

(b) Mr Blue is risk averse. He will not enjoy a fair gamble and would like to buy fairly priced insurance.

(c) Miss Red is risk-neutral. She will not enjoy a fair gamble but wouldn't oppose it either. Similarly with fairly priced insurance.

(d) Mrs Green is risk-loving. She would enjoy a fair gamble and would dislike fairly priced insurance.

(e) Mr Blue would like to buy insurance, but only if it is fairly or under priced.

Question 775  utility, utility function

Below is a graph of 3 peoples’ utility functions, Mr Blue (U=W^(1/2) ), Miss Red (U=W/10) and Mrs Green (U=W^2/1000). Assume that each of them currently have $50 of wealth.

Which of the following statements about them is NOT correct?

(a) Mr Blue would prefer to invest his wealth in a well diversified portfolio of stocks rather than a single stock, assuming that all stocks had the same total risk and return.

(b) Mrs Green would prefer to invest her wealth in a single stock rather than a well diversified portfolio of stocks, assuming that all stocks had the same total risk and return.

(c) The popularity of insurance only makes sense if people are similar to Mr Blue.

(d) CAPM theory only makes sense if people are similar to Miss Red.

(e) The popularity of casino gambling and lottery tickets only make sense if people are similar to Mrs Green.

Question 651  future

Which of the following statements about futures is NOT correct?

(a) Futures quotes displayed on the exchange change continuously.

(b) Futures prices written in existing futures contracts are fixed, they do not change since they’re written in the legal contract.

(c) One year futures quotes equal the market’s expectation of the underlying asset price in one year. For this reason futures markets are a good predictor of the underlying asset prices.

(d) Futures prices can be calculated based on the spot price of the underlying asset compounded forward at the total opportunity cost of capital, less any storage costs and plus any income yields such as dividends.

(e) The futures price quote and the underlying asset's spot price will converge over time. At the future's expiry they’ll be equal.

Question 590  future, market efficiency

Which of the following statements about futures contracts on shares is NOT correct, assuming that markets are efficient?

When an equity future is first negotiated (at t=0):

(a) The futures price quote ##(F_T)## is 'fair'. It's neither over- nor under-priced to the long or short trader.

(b) The futures price quote ##(F_T)## equals the expected underlying asset price at maturity.

(c) The futures price quote ##(F_0)## is initially zero.

(d) The value of the future ##(V_0)## is initially zero to both the long and short trader.

(e) If the value of the future ##(V_0)## rises for the long trader, it must have fallen for the short trader, and vice versa.

Question 707  continuously compounding rate, continuously compounding rate conversion

Convert a 10% effective annual rate ##(r_\text{eff annual})## into a continuously compounded annual rate ##(r_\text{cc annual})##. The equivalent continuously compounded annual rate is:

(a) 230.258509% pa

(b) 10.536052% pa

(c) 10.517092% pa

(d) 10.468982% pa

(e) 9.531018% pa

Question 709  continuously compounding rate, APR

Which of the following interest rate quotes is NOT equivalent to a 10% effective annual rate of return? Assume that each year has 12 months, each month has 30 days, each day has 24 hours, each hour has 60 minutes and each minute has 60 seconds. APR stands for Annualised Percentage Rate.

(a) 9.7617696% is the APR compounding semi-annually ##(r_\text{apr comp 6mth})##

(b) 9.5689685% is the APR compounding monthly ##(r_\text{apr comp monthly})##

(c) 9.6454756% is the APR compounding daily ##(r_\text{apr comp daily})##

(d) 9.5310182% is the APR compounding per second ##(r_\text{apr comp per second})##

(e) 9.5310180% is the continuously compounded rate per annum ##(r_\text{cc annual})##

Question 710  continuously compounding rate, continuously compounding rate conversion

A continuously compounded monthly return of 1% ##(r_\text{cc monthly})## is equivalent to a continuously compounded annual return ##(r_\text{cc annual})## of:

(a) 12.682503% pa

(b) 12.060201% pa

(c) 12% pa

(d) 11.940397% pa

(e) 3.464102% pa

Question 712  effective rate conversion

An effective monthly return of 1% ##(r_\text{eff monthly})## is equivalent to an effective annual return ##(r_\text{eff annual})## of:

(a) 12.682503% pa

(b) 12.060201% pa

(c) 12% pa

(d) 11.940397% pa

(e) 3.464102% pa

Question 596  future, continuously compounding rate

An equity index is currently at 5,000 points. The 2 year futures price is 5,400 points and the total required return is 8% pa with continuous compounding. Each index point is worth $25.

What is the implied continuous dividend yield as a continuously compounded rate per annum?

(a) 0.3039% pa

(b) 3.8481% pa

(c) 4.1519% pa

(d) 7.3922% pa

(e) 7.6961% pa

Question 714  return distribution, no explanation

Which of the following quantities is commonly assumed to be normally distributed?

(a) Prices, ##P_1##.

(b) Gross discrete returns per annum, ##r_{\text{gdr 0 }\rightarrow \text{ 1}} = \dfrac{P_1}{P_0} ##.

(c) Effective annual returns per annum also known as net discrete returns, ##r_{\text{eff 0 }\rightarrow \text{ 1}} = \dfrac{P_1 - P_0}{P_0} = \dfrac{P_1}{P_0}-1##.

(d) Continuously compounded returns per annum, ##r_{\text{cc 0 }\rightarrow \text{ 1}} = \ln \left( \dfrac{P_1}{P_0} \right)##.

(e) Annualised percentage rates compounding per month, ##r_{\text{apr comp monthly 0 }\rightarrow \text{ 1 mth}} = \left( \dfrac{P_1 - P_0}{P_0} \right) \times 12##.

Question 581  APR, effective rate, effective rate conversion

A home loan company advertises an interest rate of 6% pa, payable monthly. Which of the following statements about the interest rate is NOT correct? All rates are given to four decimal places.

(a) The APR compounding monthly is 6.0000% per annum.

(b) The effective monthly rate is 0.5000% per month.

(c) The effective annual rate is 6.1678% per annum.

(d) The effective 6 month rate is 3.0000% per six months.

(e) The APR compounding semi-annually is 6.0755% per annum.

Question 717  return distribution

The below three graphs show probability density functions (PDF) of three different random variables Red, Green and Blue. Let ##P_1## be the unknown price of a stock in one year. ##P_1## is a random variable. Let ##P_0 = 1##, so the share price now is $1. This one dollar is a constant, it is not a variable.

Which of the below statements is NOT correct? Financial practitioners commonly assume that the shape of the PDF represented in the colour:

(a) Green is a stock's continuously compounded rate of return, also called the log gross discrete return. ##r_\text{cc} = \ln(P_1/P_0)##

(b) Blue is a stock's future price, ##P_1##

(c) Blue is a stock's gross discrete return. ##\text{GDR} = P_1/P_0##

(d) Blue is a stock's effective rate of return. ##r_\text{eff} = (P_1-P_0)/P_0##

(e) Red is a stock's net discrete return. ##\text{NDR} = \text{GDR}-1##

Question 721  mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate

Fred owns some Commonwealth Bank (CBA) shares. He has calculated CBA’s monthly returns for each month in the past 20 years using this formula:

###r_\text{t monthly}=\ln⁡ \left( \dfrac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} \right)###

He then took the arithmetic average and found it to be 1% per month using this formula:

###\bar{r}_\text{monthly}= \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( r_\text{t monthly} \right)} }{T} =0.01=1\% \text{ per month}###

He also found the standard deviation of these monthly returns which was 5% per month:

###\sigma_\text{monthly} = \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( \left( r_\text{t monthly} - \bar{r}_\text{monthly} \right)^2 \right)} }{T} =0.05=5\%\text{ per month}###

Which of the below statements about Fred’s CBA shares is NOT correct? Assume that the past historical average return is the true population average of future expected returns.

(a) The returns ##r_\text{t monthly}## are continuously compounded monthly returns and are likely to be normally distributed, so the mean, median and mode of these continuously compounded returns are all equal to 1% per month.

(b) The annualised average continuously compounded return is ##\bar{r}_\text{cc annual}=12×0.01=0.1=12\%\text{ pa}##. The annualised standard deviation is ##\sigma_\text{annual} = \sqrt{12}×0.05=0.173205081=17.32\%\text{ pa}##.

(c) Over the next 10 years the mean, median and mode continuously compounded 10 year returns will all equal ##0.01 \times 12 \times 10 = 120\%##.

(d) Over the next 10 years the expected mean gross discrete 10 year return is ##e^{(0.01 - 0.05^2/2)×12×10} = 2.857651118## and the median gross discrete 10 year return is ##e^{(0.01 + 0.05^2/2)×12×10}=3.857425531##.

(e) If the current price of the CBA shares is $75, then in 10 years they’re expected to have a mean value of ##75×e^{(0.01 + 0.05^2/2)×12×10} = 289.3069148## and a median value of ##75×e^{0.01×12×10}=249.0087692##.

Question 722  mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate

Here is a table of stock prices and returns. Which of the statements below the table is NOT correct?

Price and Return Population Statistics
Time	Prices	LGDR	GDR	NDR
0	100
1	50	-0.6931	0.5	-0.5
2	100	0.6931	2	1
Arithmetic average		0	1.25	0.25
Arithmetic standard deviation		0.9802	1.0607	1.0607

 

(a) The geometric average of the gross discrete returns (GAGDR) equals 1 which is 100%.

(b) ##\text{GAGDR} = \exp \left( \text{AALGDR} \right)##. The GAGDR is equal to the natural exponent of the arithmetic average of the logarithms of the gross discrete returns (AALGDR).

(c) ##\text{GAGDR} = \left( P_T/P_0 \right)^{1/T}##. The GAGDR equals the ratio of the last and first prices raised to the power of the inverse of the number of time periods between them.

(d) ##\text{LGAGDR} = \text{AALGDR}##. This is always true, regardless of the distribution of the prices or returns and the number of return observations. The logarithm of the geometric average of the gross discrete returns (LGAGDR) is always equal to the arithmetic average of the logarithms of the gross discrete returns (AALGDR).

(e) ##\text{LAAGDR} = \text{AALGDR} + \text{SDLGDR}^2/2##. This is always true, regardless of the distribution of the prices or returns and the number of return observations. The logarithm of the arithmetic average of the gross discrete returns (LAAGDR) equals the arithmetic average of the logarithms of the gross discrete returns (AALGDR) plus half the variance of the LGDR's.

Question 792  mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate, log-normal distribution, confidence interval

A risk manager has identified that their investment fund’s continuously compounded portfolio returns are normally distributed with a mean of 10% pa and a standard deviation of 40% pa. The fund’s portfolio is currently valued at $1 million. Assume that there is no estimation error in the above figures. To simplify your calculations, all answers below use 2.33 as an approximation for the normal inverse cumulative density function at 99%. All answers are rounded to the nearest dollar. Assume one month is 1/12 of a year. Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

(a) The median portfolio value in one year is $1,105,171. In one month it's $1,008,368.

(b) The mean portfolio value in one year is $1,197,217. In one month it's $1,015,113.

(c) The worst one percentile of portfolio values in one year is $435,178.

(d) The worst one percentile of portfolio values in one month is $933,016.

(e) The 98% confidence interval of portfolio values in two years is between $326,918 and $4,563,305.

Question 926  mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate

The arithmetic average continuously compounded or log gross discrete return (AALGDR) on the ASX200 accumulation index over the 24 years from 31 Dec 1992 to 31 Dec 2016 is 9.49% pa.

The arithmetic standard deviation (SDLGDR) is 16.92 percentage points pa.

Assume that the log gross discrete returns are normally distributed and that the above estimates are true population statistics, not sample statistics, so there is no standard error in the sample mean or standard deviation estimates. Also assume that the standardised normal Z-statistic corresponding to a one-tail probability of 2.5% is exactly -1.96.

If you had a $1 million fund that replicated the ASX200 accumulation index, in how many years would the median dollar value of your fund first be expected to lie outside the 95% confidence interval forecast?

(a) 23.17 years.

(b) 41.31 years.

(c) 134.19 years.

(d) 536.75 years.

(e) Never.

Question 927  mean and median returns, mode return, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate

The arithmetic average continuously compounded or log gross discrete return (AALGDR) on the ASX200 accumulation index over the 24 years from 31 Dec 1992 to 31 Dec 2016 is 9.49% pa.

The arithmetic standard deviation (SDLGDR) is 16.92 percentage points pa.

Assume that the log gross discrete returns are normally distributed and that the above estimates are true population statistics, not sample statistics, so there is no standard error in the sample mean or standard deviation estimates. Also assume that the standardised normal Z-statistic corresponding to a one-tail probability of 2.5% is exactly -1.96.

If you had a $1 million fund that replicated the ASX200 accumulation index, in how many years would the mean dollar value of your fund first be expected to lie outside the 95% confidence interval forecast?

(a) 23.17 years.

(b) 41.31 years.

(c) 134.19 years.

(d) 536.75 years.

(e) Never.

Question 929  standard error, mean and median returns, mode return, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate

The arithmetic average continuously compounded or log gross discrete return (AALGDR) on the ASX200 accumulation index over the 24 years from 31 Dec 1992 to 31 Dec 2016 is 9.49% pa.

The arithmetic standard deviation (SDLGDR) is 16.92 percentage points pa.

Assume that the data are sample statistics, not population statistics. Assume that the log gross discrete returns are normally distributed.

What is the standard error of your estimate of the sample ASX200 accumulation index arithmetic average log gross discrete return (AALGDR) over the 24 years from 1992 to 2016?

(a) 43.9125 percentage points per annum.

(b) 3.4538 percentage points per annum.

(c) 1.9371 percentage points per annum.

(d) 0.705 percentage points per annum.

(e) 0.3954 percentage points per annum.

Question 673  CAPM, beta, expected and historical returns

A stock has a beta of 1.5. The market's expected total return is 10% pa and the risk free rate is 5% pa, both given as effective annual rates.

In the last 5 minutes, bad economic news was released showing a higher chance of recession. Over this time the share market fell by 1%. The risk free rate was unchanged.

What do you think was the stock's historical return over the last 5 minutes, given as an effective 5 minute rate?

(a) -12.5%

(b) -4%

(c) -1.5%

(d) -1%

(e) 12.5%

Question 674  CAPM, beta, expected and historical returns

A stock has a beta of 1.5. The market's expected total return is 10% pa and the risk free rate is 5% pa, both given as effective annual rates.

Over the last year, bad economic news was released showing a higher chance of recession. Over this time the share market fell by 1%. So ##r_{m} = (P_{0} - P_{-1})/P_{-1} = -0.01##, where the current time is zero and one year ago is time -1. The risk free rate was unchanged.

What do you think was the stock's historical return over the last year, given as an effective annual rate?

(a) -12.5% pa

(b) -4% pa

(c) -1.5% pa

(d) -1% pa

(e) 12.5% pa

Question 657  systematic and idiosyncratic risk, CAPM, no explanation

A stock's required total return will decrease when its:

(a) Systematic risk increases.

(b) Idiosyncratic risk increases.

(c) Total risk increases.

(d) Systematic risk decreases.

(e) Idiosyncratic risk decreases.

Question 807  market efficiency, expected and historical returns, CAPM, beta, systematic risk, no explanation

You work in Asia and just woke up. It looked like a nice day but then you read the news and found out that last night the American share market fell by 10% while you were asleep due to surprisingly poor macro-economic world news. You own a portfolio of liquid stocks listed in Asia with a beta of 1.6. When the Asian equity markets open, what do you expect to happen to your share portfolio? Assume that the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is correct and that the market portfolio contains all shares in the world, of which American shares are a big part. Your portfolio beta is measured against this world market portfolio.

When the Asian equity market opens for trade, you would expect your portfolio value to:

(a) Remain unchanged.

(b) Instantaneously fall by 10%.

(c) Slowly fall by 10% over the day.

(d) Instantaneously fall by 16%.

(e) Slowly fall by 16% over the day.

Question 809  Markowitz portfolio theory, CAPM, Jensens alpha, CML, systematic and idiosyncratic risk

A graph of assets’ expected returns ##(\mu)## versus standard deviations ##(\sigma)## is given in the graph below. The CML is the capital market line.

Which of the following statements about this graph, Markowitz portfolio theory and the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) theory is NOT correct?

(a) The market portfolio M has systematic risk only. It’s a fully diversified portfolio comprised of all individual risky assets. The market portfolio is usually assumed to be the equity index, such as the ASX200 in Australia or the S&P500 in the US.

(b) The risk free security has no risk at all. Government bonds are usually assumed to be the risk-free security.

(c) Portfolio combinations of the market portfolio and risk free security will plot on the CML and will have systematic risk only. They will have no diversifiable risk.

(d) The portfolios on the CML with a return above ##r_f## have maximum return for any given level of risk.

(e) The individual assets and portfolios with returns less than the risk free rate are over-priced, have a negative Jensen’s alpha and should be sold.

Question 105  NPV, risk, market efficiency

A person is thinking about borrowing $100 from the bank at 7% pa and investing it in shares with an expected return of 10% pa. One year later the person intends to sell the shares and pay back the loan in full. Both the loan and the shares are fairly priced.

What is the Net Present Value (NPV) of this one year investment? Note that you are asked to find the present value (##V_0##), not the value in one year (##V_1##).

(a) $10

(b) $3

(c) $2.8037

(d) $2.7273

(e) $0

Question 242  technical analysis, market efficiency

Select the most correct statement from the following.

'Chartists', also known as 'technical traders', believe that:

(a) Markets are weak-form efficient.

(b) Markets are semi-strong-form efficient.

(c) Past prices cannot be used to predict future prices.

(d) Past returns can be used to predict future returns.

(e) Stock prices reflect all publically available information.

Question 1044  leverage, capital structure, beta

A levered firm has only 2 assets on its balance sheet with the below market values and CAPM betas. The risk free rate is 3% pa and the market risk premium is 5% pa. Assume that the CAPM is correct and all assets are fairly priced.

Balance Sheet Market Values and Betas
Balance sheet item	Market value ($m)	Beta
Cash asset	0.5	0
Truck assets	0.5	2
Loan liabilities	0.25	0.1
Equity funding	?	?

 

Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

(a) Market value of assets is $1m.

(b) Firm’s debt-to-assets ratio is 25%.

(c) Asset beta is 1 and required return on assets (or WACC before tax) is 8% pa.

(d) Equity beta is 1.4 and equity required return is 10% pa.

(e) Required return on debt is 3.5% pa.

Question 1045  payout policy, leverage, capital structure, beta

A levered firm has only 2 assets on its balance sheet with the below market values and CAPM betas. The risk free rate is 3% pa and the market risk premium is 5% pa. Assume that the CAPM is correct and all assets are fairly priced.

Balance Sheet Market Values and Betas
Balance sheet item	Market value ($m)	Beta
Cash asset	0.5	0
Truck assets	0.5	2
Loan liabilities	0.25	0.1
Equity funding	?	?

 

The firm then pays out all of its cash as a dividend. Assume that the beta and yield on the loan liability remain unchanged. Ignore taxes, transaction costs, signalling, information asymmetries and other frictions.

Which of the following statements is NOT correct? This event led to a:

(a) $0.5m decrease in equity to $0.25m and cash to zero.

(b) Asset beta of 1 and required return on assets (or WACC before tax) of 8% pa.

(c) $0.50 fall in the share price if there are 1 million shares.

(d) Equity beta of 3.9 and required return of 22.5% pa.

(e) Debt-to-assets ratio of 50%.