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Question 339  bond pricing, inflation, market efficiency, income and capital returns

Economic statistics released this morning were a surprise: they show a strong chance of consumer price inflation (CPI) reaching 5% pa over the next 2 years.

This is much higher than the previous forecast of 3% pa.

A vanilla fixed-coupon 2-year risk-free government bond was issued at par this morning, just before the economic news was released.

What is the expected change in bond price after the economic news this morning, and in the next 2 years? Assume that:

  • Inflation remains at 5% over the next 2 years.
  • Investors demand a constant real bond yield.
  • The bond price falls by the (after-tax) value of the coupon the night before the ex-coupon date, as in real life.

Copyright © 2014 Keith Woodward