# Fight Finance

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Suppose the Australian cash rate is expected to be 8.15% pa and the US federal funds rate is expected to be 3.00% pa over the next 2 years, both given as nominal effective annual rates. The current exchange rate is at parity, so 1 USD = 1 AUD.

What is the implied 2 year forward foreign exchange rate?

In the so called 'Swiss Loans Affair' of the 1980's, Australian banks offered loans denominated in Swiss Francs to Australian farmers at interest rates as low as 4% pa. This was far lower than interest rates on Australian Dollar loans which were above 10% due to very high inflation in Australia at the time.

In the late-1980's there was a large depreciation in the Australian Dollar. The Australian Dollar nearly halved in value against the Swiss Franc. Many Australian farmers went bankrupt since they couldn't afford the interest payments on the Swiss Franc loans because the Australian Dollar value of those payments nearly doubled. The farmers accused the banks of promoting Swiss Franc loans without making them aware of the risks.

What fundamental principal of finance did the Australian farmers (and the bankers) fail to understand?

If the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep its interbank overnight cash rate at 2% pa while the US Federal Reserve is expected to keep its federal funds rate at 0% pa over the next year, is the AUD is expected to , , or remain against the USD over the next year?

The Australian cash rate is expected to be 2% pa over the next one year, while the Japanese cash rate is expected to be 0% pa, both given as nominal effective annual rates. The current exchange rate is 100 JPY per AUD.

What is the implied 1 year forward foreign exchange rate?

The Australian cash rate is expected to be 2% pa over the next one year, while the US cash rate is expected to be 0% pa, both given as nominal effective annual rates. The current exchange rate is 0.73 USD per AUD.

What is the implied 1 year USD per AUD forward foreign exchange rate?

Suppose the yield curve in the USA and Germany is flat and the:

• USD federal funds rate at the Federal Reserve is 1% pa;
• EUR deposit facility at the European Central Bank is -0.4% pa (note the negative sign);
• Spot EUR exchange rate is 1 USD per EUR;
• One year forward EUR exchange rate is 1.011 USD per EUR.

You suspect that there’s an arbitrage opportunity. Which one of the following statements about the potential arbitrage opportunity is NOT correct?

Judging by the graph, in 2018 the USD short term interest rate set by the US Federal Reserve is higher than the JPY short term interest rate set by the Bank of Japan, which is higher than the EUR short term interest rate set by the European central bank.

At the latest date shown in 2018: $r_{USD}>r_{JPY}>r_{EUR}$

Assume that each currency’s yield curve is flat at the latest date shown in 2018, so interest rates are expected to remain at their current level into the future.

Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

Over time you would expect the:

Below is a graph showing the spread or difference between government bond yields in different countries compared to the US. Assume that all governments have zero credit risk.

According to the principle of cross-currency interest rate parity, which country is likely to have the greatest expected currency appreciation against the USD over the next 2 years?