Fight Finance

A company selling charting and technical analysis software claims that independent academic studies have shown that its software makes significantly positive abnormal returns. Assuming the claim is true, which statement(s) are correct?

(I) Weak form market efficiency is broken.

(II) Semi-strong form market efficiency is broken.

(III) Strong form market efficiency is broken.

(IV) The asset pricing model used to measure the abnormal returns (such as the CAPM) had mis-specification error so the returns may not be abnormal but rather fair for the level of risk.

Select the most correct response:

Below are 4 option graphs. Note that the y-axis is payoff at maturity (T). What options do they depict? List them in the order that they are numbered

In late 2003 the listed bank ANZ announced a 2-for-11 rights issue to fund the takeover of New Zealand bank NBNZ. Below is the chronology of events:

• 23/10/2003. Share price closes at $18.30.

• 24/10/2003. 2-for-11 rights issue announced at a subscription price of $13. The proceeds of the rights issue will be used to acquire New Zealand bank NBNZ. Trading halt announced in morning before market opens.

• 28/10/2003. Trading halt lifted. Last (and only) day that shares trade cum-rights. Share price opens at $18.00 and closes at $18.14.

• 29/10/2003. Shares trade ex-rights.

All things remaining equal, what would you expect ANZ's stock price to open at on the first day that it trades ex-rights (29/10/2003)? Ignore the time value of money since time is negligibly short. Also ignore taxes.

Your friend just bought a house for $1,000,000. He financed it using a $900,000 mortgage loan and a deposit of $100,000.

In the context of residential housing and mortgages, the 'equity' or 'net wealth' tied up in a house is the value of the house less the value of the mortgage loan. Assuming that your friend's only asset is his house, his net wealth is $100,000.

If house prices suddenly fall by 15%, what would be your friend's percentage change in net wealth?

Assume that:

• No income (rent) was received from the house during the short time over which house prices fell.
• Your friend will not declare bankruptcy, he will always pay off his debts.

When using the dividend discount model, care must be taken to avoid using a nominal dividend growth rate that exceeds the country's nominal GDP growth rate. Otherwise the firm is forecast to take over the country since it grows faster than the average business forever.

Suppose a firm's nominal dividend grows at 10% pa forever, and nominal GDP growth is 5% pa forever. The firm's total dividends are currently $1 billion (t=0). The country's GDP is currently $1,000 billion (t=0).

In approximately how many years will the company's total dividends be as large as the country's GDP?

You are an equities analyst trying to value the equity of the Australian telecoms company Telstra, with ticker TLS. In Australia, listed companies like Telstra tend to pay dividends every 6 months. The payment around August is called the final dividend and the payment around February is called the interim dividend. Both occur annually.

• Today is mid-March 2015.
• TLS's last interim dividend of $0.15 was one month ago in mid-February 2015.
• TLS's last final dividend of $0.15 was seven months ago in mid-August 2014.

Judging by TLS's dividend history and prospects, you estimate that the nominal dividend growth rate will be 1% pa. Assume that TLS's total nominal cost of equity is 6% pa. The dividends are nominal cash flows and the inflation rate is 2.5% pa. All rates are quoted as nominal effective annual rates. Assume that each month is exactly one twelfth (1/12) of a year, so you can ignore the number of days in each month.

Calculate the current TLS share price.

An equity index stands at 100 points and the one year equity futures price is 102.

The equity index is expected to have a dividend yield of 4% pa. Assume that investors are risk-neutral so their total required return on the shares is the same as the risk free Treasury bond yield which is 10% pa. Both are given as discrete effective annual rates.

Assuming that the equity index is fairly priced, an arbitrageur would recognise that the equity futures are:

The famous investor Warren Buffett is one of few portfolio managers who appears to have consistently beaten the market. His company Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) appears to have outperformed the US S&P500 market index, shown in the graph below.

Read the below statements about Warren Buffett and the implications for the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) theory of Eugene Fama. Assume that the first sentence is true. Analyse the second sentence and select the answer option which is NOT correct. In other words, find the false statement in the second sentence.

The Chinese central bank has the largest amount of foreign currency reserves.

What could the large amounts of foreign exchange reserves held by the Chinese government be used for in a currency crisis? China's currency is called the Renminbi (RMB) or Yuan (CNY). In a Chinese currency crisis the Chinese government is likely to use its FX reserves to:

Which of the following statements about an asset’s standard deviation of returns is NOT correct? All other things remaining equal, the higher the asset’s standard deviation of returns: