The following equation is called the Dividend Discount Model (DDM), Gordon Growth Model or the perpetuity with growth formula: ### P_0 = \frac{ C_1 }{ r - g } ###

What is ##g##?

For a price of $13, Carla will sell you a share which will pay a dividend of $1 in one year and every year after that forever. The required return of the stock is 10% pa.

For a price of $6, Carlos will sell you a share which will pay a dividend of $1 in one year and every year after that forever. The required return of the stock is 10% pa.

For a price of $102, Andrea will sell you a share which just paid a dividend of $10, and is expected to pay dividends every year forever, growing at a rate of 5% pa.

So the next dividend will be ##10(1+0.05)^1=$10.50##, and the year after it will be ##10(1+0.05)^2=11.025## and so on.

The required return of the stock is 15% pa.

For a price of $1040, Camille will sell you a share which just paid a dividend of $100, and is expected to pay dividends every year forever, growing at a rate of 5% pa.

So the next dividend will be ##100(1+0.05)^1=$105.00##, and the year after it will be ##100(1+0.05)^2=110.25## and so on.

The required return of the stock is 15% pa.

For a price of $10.20 each, Renee will sell you 100 shares. Each share is expected to pay dividends in perpetuity, growing at a rate of 5% pa. The next dividend is one year away (t=1) and is expected to be $1 per share.

The required return of the stock is 15% pa.

For a price of $129, Joanne will sell you a share which is expected to pay a $30 dividend in one year, and a $10 dividend every year after that forever. So the stock's dividends will be $30 at t=1, $10 at t=2, $10 at t=3, and $10 forever onwards.

The required return of the stock is 10% pa.

For a price of $95, Sherylanne will sell you a share which is not expected to pay any dividend for 7 years, but will pay a $10 dividend on the 7th year (t=7) and every year after that forever.

The required return of the stock is 10% pa.

The following equation is the Dividend Discount Model, also known as the 'Gordon Growth Model' or the 'Perpetuity with growth' equation.

### p_{0} = \frac{d_1}{r_{\text{eff}} - g_{\text{eff}}} ###

What is the discount rate '## r_\text{eff} ##' in this equation?

The following equation is the Dividend Discount Model, also known as the 'Gordon Growth Model' or the 'Perpetuity with growth' equation.

### P_{0} = \frac{C_1}{r_{\text{eff}} - g_{\text{eff}}} ###

What would you call the expression ## C_1/P_0 ##?

What is the NPV of the following series of cash flows when the discount rate is 5% given as an effective annual rate?

The first payment of $10 is in 4 years, followed by payments every 6 months forever after that which shrink by 2% every 6 months. That is, the growth rate every 6 months is actually negative 2%, given as an effective 6 month rate. So the payment at ## t=4.5 ## years will be ## 10(1-0.02)^1=9.80 ##, and so on.

A stock pays annual dividends. It just paid a dividend of $10. The growth rate in the dividend is 2% pa. You estimate that the stock's required return is 10% pa. Both the discount rate and growth rate are given as effective annual rates. Using the dividend discount model, what will be the share price?

A stock is expected to pay the following dividends:

Cash Flows of a Stock | ||||||

Time (yrs) | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ... |

Dividend ($) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.05 | 1.10 | 1.15 | ... |

After year 4, the annual dividend will grow in perpetuity at 5% pa, so;

- the dividend at t=5 will be $1.15(1+0.05),
- the dividend at t=6 will be $1.15(1+0.05)^2, and so on.

The required return on the stock is 10% pa. Both the growth rate and required return are given as effective annual rates. What is the current price of the stock?

A stock is expected to pay the following dividends:

Cash Flows of a Stock | ||||||

Time (yrs) | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ... |

Dividend ($) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.05 | 1.10 | 1.15 | ... |

After year 4, the annual dividend will grow in perpetuity at 5% pa, so;

- the dividend at t=5 will be $1.15(1+0.05),
- the dividend at t=6 will be $1.15(1+0.05)^2, and so on.

The required return on the stock is 10% pa. Both the growth rate and required return are given as effective annual rates.

What will be the price of the stock in three and a half years (t = 3.5)?

The following is the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) used to price stocks:

### P_0 = \frac{d_1}{r-g} ###Assume that the assumptions of the DDM hold and that the time period is measured in years.

Which of the following is equal to the expected dividend in 3 years, ## d_3 ##?

**Question 50** DDM, stock pricing, inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows

Most listed Australian companies pay dividends twice per year, the 'interim' and 'final' dividends, which are roughly 6 months apart.

You are an equities analyst trying to value the company BHP. You decide to use the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) as a starting point, so you study BHP's dividend history and you find that BHP tends to pay the same interim and final dividend each year, and that both grow by the same rate.

You expect BHP will pay a $0.55 interim dividend in six months and a $0.55 final dividend in one year. You expect each to grow by 4% next year and forever, so the interim and final dividends next year will be $0.572 each, and so on in perpetuity.

Assume BHP's cost of equity is 8% pa. All rates are quoted as nominal effective rates. The dividends are nominal cash flows and the inflation rate is 2.5% pa.

What is the current price of a BHP share?

A stock pays semi-annual dividends. It just paid a dividend of $10. The growth rate in the dividend is 1% every 6 months, given as an effective 6 month rate. You estimate that the stock's required return is 21% pa, as an effective annual rate.

Using the dividend discount model, what will be the share price?

A stock is expected to pay the following dividends:

Cash Flows of a Stock | ||||||

Time (yrs) | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ... |

Dividend ($) | 0.00 | 1.15 | 1.10 | 1.05 | 1.00 | ... |

After year 4, the annual dividend will grow in perpetuity at -5% pa. Note that this is a negative growth rate, so the dividend will actually shrink. So,

- the dividend at t=5 will be ##$1(1-0.05) = $0.95##,
- the dividend at t=6 will be ##$1(1-0.05)^2 = $0.9025##, and so on.

The required return on the stock is 10% pa. Both the growth rate and required return are given as effective annual rates.

What is the current price of the stock?

A stock is expected to pay the following dividends:

Cash Flows of a Stock | ||||||

Time (yrs) | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ... |

Dividend ($) | 0.00 | 1.15 | 1.10 | 1.05 | 1.00 | ... |

After year 4, the annual dividend will grow in perpetuity at -5% pa. Note that this is a negative growth rate, so the dividend will actually shrink. So,

- the dividend at t=5 will be ##$1(1-0.05) = $0.95##,
- the dividend at t=6 will be ##$1(1-0.05)^2 = $0.9025##, and so on.

The required return on the stock is 10% pa. Both the growth rate and required return are given as effective annual rates.

What will be the price of the stock in four and a half years (t = 4.5)?

When using the dividend discount model to price a stock:

### p_{0} = \frac{d_1}{r - g} ###

The growth rate in dividends (g):

The following equation is the Dividend Discount Model, also known as the 'Gordon Growth Model' or the 'Perpetuity with growth' equation.

### p_0 = \frac{d_1}{r - g} ###

Which expression is **NOT** equal to the expected dividend yield?

A share just paid its semi-annual dividend of $10. The dividend is expected to grow at 2% every 6 months forever. This 2% growth rate is an effective 6 month rate. Therefore the next dividend will be $10.20 in six months. The required return of the stock is 10% pa, given as an effective annual rate.

What is the price of the share now?

###p_0=\frac{d_1}{r_\text{eff}-g_\text{eff}}###

Which expression is **NOT** equal to the expected capital return?

A share just paid its semi-annual dividend of $10. The dividend is expected to grow at 2% every 6 months forever. This 2% growth rate is an effective **6 month** rate. Therefore the next dividend will be $10.20 in six months. The required return of the stock 10% pa, given as an effective **annual** rate.

What is the price of the share now?

**Question 165** DDM, PE ratio, payout ratio

For certain shares, the forward-looking Price-Earnings Ratio (##P_0/EPS_1##) is equal to the inverse of the share's total expected return (##1/r_\text{total}##).

For what shares is this true?

Assume:

- The general accounting definition of 'payout ratio' which is dividends per share (DPS) divided by earnings per share (EPS).
- All cash flows, earnings and rates are real.

A stock pays annual dividends. It just paid a dividend of $3. The growth rate in the dividend is 4% pa. You estimate that the stock's required return is 10% pa. Both the discount rate and growth rate are given as effective annual rates. Using the dividend discount model, what will be the share price?

A stock is expected to pay the following dividends:

Cash Flows of a Stock | ||||||

Time (yrs) | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ... |

Dividend ($) | 8 | 8 | 8 | 20 | 8 | ... |

After year 4, the dividend will grow in perpetuity at 4% pa. The required return on the stock is 10% pa. Both the growth rate and required return are given as effective annual rates.

What is the current price of the stock?

A stock is expected to pay the following dividends:

Cash Flows of a Stock | ||||||

Time (yrs) | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ... |

Dividend ($) | 8 | 8 | 8 | 20 | 8 | ... |

What will be the price of the stock in 5 years (t = 5), just after the dividend at that time has been paid?

The following is the Dividend Discount Model used to price stocks:

### p_0=\frac{d_1}{r-g} ###

Which of the following statements about the Dividend Discount Model is **NOT** correct?

A stock pays annual dividends. It just paid a dividend of $5. The growth rate in the dividend is 1% pa. You estimate that the stock's required return is 8% pa. Both the discount rate and growth rate are given as effective annual rates.

Using the dividend discount model, what will be the share price?

A stock is expected to pay the following dividends:

Cash Flows of a Stock | ||||||

Time (yrs) | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ... |

Dividend ($) | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 3 | ... |

After year 4, the dividend will grow in perpetuity at 4% pa. The required return on the stock is 10% pa. Both the growth rate and required return are given as effective annual rates.

What is the current price of the stock?

A stock is expected to pay the following dividends:

Cash Flows of a Stock | ||||||

Time (yrs) | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ... |

Dividend ($) | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 3 | ... |

After year 4, the dividend will grow in perpetuity at 4% pa. The required return on the stock is 10% pa. Both the growth rate and required return are given as effective annual rates.

What will be the price of the stock in 5 years (t = 5), just after the dividend at that time has been paid?

The following is the Dividend Discount Model used to price stocks:

### p_0=\frac{d_1}{r-g} ###

All rates are effective annual rates and the cash flows (##d_1##) are received every year. Note that the r and g terms in the above DDM could also be labelled as below: ###r = r_{\text{total, 0}\rightarrow\text{1yr, eff 1yr}}### ###g = r_{\text{capital, 0}\rightarrow\text{1yr, eff 1yr}}### Which of the following statements is **NOT** correct?

A share pays annual dividends. It just paid a dividend of $2. The growth rate in the dividend is 3% pa. You estimate that the stock's required return is 8% pa. Both the discount rate and growth rate are given as effective annual rates.

Using the dividend discount model, what is the share price?

A stock is expected to pay the following dividends:

Cash Flows of a Stock | ||||||

Time (yrs) | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ... |

Dividend ($) | 0 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 20 | ... |

After year 4, the dividend will grow in perpetuity at 5% pa. The required return of the stock is 10% pa. Both the growth rate and required return are given as effective annual rates.

What is the current price of the stock?

A stock is expected to pay the following dividends:

Cash Flows of a Stock | ||||||

Time (yrs) | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ... |

Dividend ($) | 0 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 20 | ... |

After year 4, the dividend will grow in perpetuity at 5% pa. The required return of the stock is 10% pa. Both the growth rate and required return are given as effective annual rates.

What will be the price of the stock in 7 years (t = 7), just after the dividend at that time has been paid?

**Question 201** DDM, income and capital returns, no explanation

The following is the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) used to price stocks:

###p_0=\dfrac{d_1}{r-g}###

If the assumptions of the DDM hold, which one of the following statements is **NOT** correct?

When a firm makes excess profits they sometimes pay them out as special dividends. Special dividends are just like ordinary dividends but they are one-off and investors do not expect them to continue, unlike ordinary dividends which are expected to persist.

Currently, a mining company has a share price of $6 and pays constant annual dividends of $0.50. The next dividend will be paid in 1 year. Suddenly and unexpectedly the mining company announces that due to higher than expected profits, all of these windfall profits will be paid as a special dividend of $0.30 in 1 year.

If investors believe that the windfall profits (and dividend) is a one-off event, what will be the new share price? If investors believe that the additional dividend is actually permanent and will continue to be paid, what will be the new share price? Assume that the required return on equity is unchanged. Choose from the following, where the first share price includes the permanent earnings and dividend increase and the second includes the one-off increase only:

A stock just paid its annual dividend of $9. The share price is $60. The required return of the stock is 10% pa as an effective annual rate.

What is the implied growth rate of the dividend per year?

**Question 217** NPV, DDM, stock pricing, multi-stage growth model

A stock is expected to pay a dividend of $15 in one year (t=1), then $25 for 9 years after that (payments at t=2 ,3,...10), and on the 11th year (t=11) the dividend will be 2% less than at t=10, and will continue to shrink at the same rate every year after that forever. The required return of the stock is 10%. All rates are effective annual rates.

What is the price of the stock now?

A very low-risk stock just paid its semi-annual dividend of $0.14, as it has for the last 5 years. You conservatively estimate that from now on the dividend will fall at a rate of 1% every 6 months. If the stock currently sells for $3 per share, what must be its required return as an effective annual rate?

If risk free government bonds are trading at a yield of 4% pa, given as an effective annual rate, would you consider buying or selling the stock?

A stock has a beta of 0.5. Its next dividend is expected to be $3 and will be paid at the end of each year. This annual dividend is expected to grow at 2% pa. Treasury bonds yield 5% pa and the market portfolio's expected return is 10% pa. All returns are effective annual rates.

What is the price of the stock?

The total return of any asset can be broken down in different ways. One possible way is to use the dividend discount model (or Gordon growth model):

###p_0 = \frac{c_1}{r_\text{total}-r_\text{capital}}###

Which, since ##c_1/p_0## is the income return (##r_\text{income}##), can be expressed as:

###r_\text{total}=r_\text{income}+r_\text{capital}###

So the total return of an asset is the income component plus the capital or price growth component.

Another way to break up total return is to use the Capital Asset Pricing Model:

###r_\text{total}=r_\text{f}+β(r_\text{m}- r_\text{f})###

###r_\text{total}=r_\text{time value}+r_\text{risk premium}###

So the risk free rate is the time value of money and the term ##β(r_\text{m}- r_\text{f})## is the compensation for taking on systematic risk.

Using the above theory and your general knowledge, which of the below equations, if any, are correct?

(I) ##r_\text{income}=r_\text{time value}##

(II) ##r_\text{income}=r_\text{risk premium}##

(III) ##r_\text{capital}=r_\text{time value}##

(IV) ##r_\text{capital}=r_\text{risk premium}##

(V) ##r_\text{income}+r_\text{capital}=r_\text{time value}+r_\text{risk premium}##

Which of the equations are correct?

A share just paid its semi-annual dividend of $5. The dividend is expected to grow at 1% every 6 months forever. This 1% growth rate is an effective **6 month** rate.

Therefore the next dividend will be $5.05 in six months. The required return of the stock 8% pa, given as an effective **annual** rate.

What is the price of the share now?

A company's shares just paid their annual dividend of $2 each.

The stock price is now $40 (just after the dividend payment). The annual dividend is expected to grow by 3% every year forever. The assumptions of the dividend discount model are valid for this company.

What do you expect the **dividend yield** to be in 3 years (dividend yield from t=3 to t=4)?

###P_0=\frac{d_1}{r-g}###

A stock pays dividends annually. It just paid a dividend, but the next dividend (##d_1##) will be paid in one year.

According to the DDM, what is the correct formula for the expected price of the stock in 2.5 years?

You own an apartment which you rent out as an investment property.

What is the price of the apartment using discounted cash flow (DCF, same as NPV) valuation?

Assume that:

- You just signed a contract to rent the apartment out to a tenant for the next 12 months at $2,000 per month, payable in advance (at the start of the month, t=0). The tenant is just about to pay you the first $2,000 payment.
- The contract states that monthly rental payments are fixed for 12 months. After the contract ends, you plan to sign another contract but with rental payment increases of 3%. You intend to do this every year.

So rental payments will increase at the start of the 13th month (t=12) to be $2,060 (=2,000(1+0.03)), and then they will be constant for the next 12 months.

Rental payments will increase again at the start of the 25th month (t=24) to be $2,121.80 (=2,000(1+0.03)^{2}), and then they will be constant for the next 12 months until the next year, and so on. - The required return of the apartment is 8.732% pa, given as an effective annual rate.
- Ignore all taxes, maintenance, real estate agent, council and strata fees, periods of vacancy and other costs. Assume that the apartment will last forever and so will the rental payments.

In the dividend discount model:

###P_0 = \dfrac{C_1}{r-g}###

The return r is supposed to be the:

In the dividend discount model:

### P_0= \frac{d_1}{r-g} ###

The pronumeral ##g## is supposed to be the:

**Question 331** DDM, income and capital returns, no explanation

### P_0= \frac{d_1}{r-g} ###

Which expression is equal to the expected dividend return?

When using the dividend discount model, care must be taken to avoid using a nominal dividend growth rate that exceeds the country's nominal GDP growth rate. Otherwise the firm is forecast to take over the country since it grows faster than the average business forever.

Suppose a firm's nominal dividend grows at **10**% pa forever, and nominal GDP growth is **5**% pa forever. The firm's total dividends are currently $**1** billion (t=0). The country's GDP is currently $**1,000** billion (t=0).

In approximately how many years will the company's dividend be as large as the country's GDP?

Two years ago Fred bought a house for $**300,000**.

Now it's worth $**500,000**, based on recent similar sales in the area.

Fred's residential property has an expected total return of **8**% pa.

He rents his house out for $**2,000** per month, paid in advance.

The present value of 12 months of rental payments is $**23,173.86**.

The future value of 12 months of rental payments one year ahead is $**25,027.77**.

What is the expected annual growth rate of the rental payments? In other words, by what percentage increase will Fred have to raise the monthly rent by each year to sustain the expected annual total return of 8%?

Stocks in the United States usually pay **quarterly** dividends. For example, the retailer Wal-Mart Stores paid a $0.47 dividend every quarter over the 2013 calendar year and plans to pay a $0.48 dividend every quarter over the 2014 calendar year.

Using the dividend discount model and net present value techniques, calculate the stock price of Wal-Mart Stores assuming that:

- The time now is the beginning of January 2014. The next dividend of $
**0.48**will be received in**3**months (end of March 2014), with another 3 quarterly payments of $0.48 after this (end of June, September and December 2014). - The quarterly dividend will increase by
**2**% every year, but each quarterly dividend over the year will be equal. So each quarterly dividend paid in 2015 will be $0.4896 (##=0.48×(1+0.02)^1##), with the first at the end of March 2015 and the last at the end of December 2015. In 2016 each quarterly dividend will be $0.499392 (##=0.48×(1+0.02)^2##), with the first at the end of March 2016 and the last at the end of December 2016, and so on**forever**. - The total required return on equity is
**6**% pa. - The required return and growth rate are given as effective annual rates.
- All cash flows and rates are
**nominal**. Inflation is**3**% pa. - Dividend payment dates and ex-dividend dates are at the same time.
- Remember that there are 4 quarters in a year and 3 months in a quarter.

What is the current stock price?

Three years ago Frederika bought a house for $**400,000**.

Now it's worth $**600,000**, based on recent similar sales in the area.

Frederika's residential property has an expected **total** return of **7**% pa.

She rents her house out for $**2,500** per month, paid in advance.

The present value of 12 months of rental payments is $**29,089.48**.

The future value of 12 months of rental payments one year ahead is $**31,125.74**.

What is the expected annual **capital** yield of the property?

Stocks in the United States usually pay **quarterly** dividends. For example, the software giant Microsoft paid a $0.23 dividend every quarter over the 2013 financial year and plans to pay a $0.28 dividend every quarter over the 2014 financial year.

Using the dividend discount model and net present value techniques, calculate the stock price of Microsoft assuming that:

- The time now is the beginning of July 2014. The next dividend of $
**0.28**will be received in**3**months (end of September 2014), with another 3 quarterly payments of $0.28 after this (end of December 2014, March 2015 and June 2015). - The quarterly dividend will increase by
**2.5**% every year, but each quarterly dividend over the year will be equal. So each quarterly dividend paid in the financial year beginning in September 2015 will be $ 0.287 ##(=0.28×(1+0.025)^1)##, with the last at the end of June 2016. In the next financial year beginning in September 2016 each quarterly dividend will be $0.294175 ##(=0.28×(1+0.025)^2)##, with the last at the end of June 2017, and so on forever. - The total required return on equity is
**6**% pa. - The required return and growth rate are given as effective annual rates.
- Dividend payment dates and ex-dividend dates are at the same time.
- Remember that there are 4 quarters in a year and 3 months in a quarter.

What is the current stock price?