# Fight Finance

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Which of the following is NOT a valid method for estimating the beta of a company's stock? Assume that markets are efficient, a long history of past data is available, the stock possesses idiosyncratic and market risk. The variances and standard deviations below denote total risks.

A stock has a beta of 1.5. The market's expected total return is 10% pa and the risk free rate is 5% pa, both given as effective annual rates.

What do you think will be the stock's expected return over the next year, given as an effective annual rate?

A stock has a beta of 1.5. The market's expected total return is 10% pa and the risk free rate is 5% pa, both given as effective annual rates.

In the last 5 minutes, bad economic news was released showing a higher chance of recession. Over this time the share market fell by 1%. The risk free rate was unchanged.

What do you think was the stock's historical return over the last 5 minutes, given as an effective 5 minute rate?

A stock has a beta of 1.5. The market's expected total return is 10% pa and the risk free rate is 5% pa, both given as effective annual rates.

Over the last year, bad economic news was released showing a higher chance of recession. Over this time the share market fell by 1%. So $r_{m} = (P_{0} - P_{-1})/P_{-1} = -0.01$, where the current time is zero and one year ago is time -1. The risk free rate was unchanged.

What do you think was the stock's historical return over the last year, given as an effective annual rate?

Which of the following statements about returns is NOT correct? A stock's:

The market's expected total return is 10% pa and the risk free rate is 5% pa, both given as effective annual rates.

A stock has a beta of 0.5.

In the last 5 minutes, the federal government unexpectedly raised taxes. Over this time the share market fell by 3%. The risk free rate was unchanged.

What do you think was the stock's historical return over the last 5 minutes, given as an effective 5 minute rate?

You work in Asia and just woke up. It looked like a nice day but then you read the news and found out that last night the American share market fell by 10% while you were asleep due to surprisingly poor macro-economic world news. You own a portfolio of liquid stocks listed in Asia with a beta of 1.6. When the Asian equity markets open, what do you expect to happen to your share portfolio? Assume that the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is correct and that the market portfolio contains all shares in the world, of which American shares are a big part. Your portfolio beta is measured against this world market portfolio.

When the Asian equity market opens for trade, you would expect your portfolio value to:

 Price Data Time Series Sourced from Yahoo Finance Historical Price Data Date S&P500 Index (^GSPC) Apple (AAPL) Open High Low Close Adj close Open High Low Close Adj close 2007, Wed 3 Jan 1418 1429 1408 1417 1417 12.33 12.37 11.7 11.97 10.42 2008, Wed 2 Jan 1468 1472 1442 1447 1447 28.47 28.61 27.51 27.83 24.22 2009, Fri 2 Jan 903 935 899 932 932 12.27 13.01 12.17 12.96 11.28 2010, Mon 4 Jan 1117 1134 1117 1133 1133 30.49 30.64 30.34 30.57 26.6 Source: Yahoo Finance.

Which of the following statements about the above table which is used to calculate Apple's equity beta is NOT correct?

 Price Data Time Series Sourced from Yahoo Finance Historical Price Data Date Adjusted close S&P500 Index(^GSPC) Tesla(TSLA) 2017, Fri 29 Dec 2673.61 62.27 2018, Mon 31 Dec 2506.85 66.56 2019, Tue 31 Dec 3230.78 83.67 2020, Tue 31 Dec 3756.07 705.67 Source: Yahoo Finance.

Which of the following statements about the above table which is used to calculate Tesla's equity beta is NOT correct? Over the last 4 years the historical:

Four retail business people compete in the same city. They are all exactly the same except that they have different ways of funding or leasing the shop real estate needed to run their retail business.

If the economy is booming, shop real estate is worth more and lease costs are higher.

If the economy is in recession, shop real estate is worth less and lease costs are low.

Lease contract prices are fixed for the term of the lease and based on expectations of the future state of the economy. When leases end, a new lease contract is negotiated and the lease cost may be higher or lower depending on the state of the economy and demand and supply.

The main asset used by the retail store is the real estate which is currently worth \$1 million and has a beta of 1, so they earn the market’s expected return which is 10% pa. Assume required returns are expected to remain constant, shop assets can be valued as a perpetuity of lease profits, and that buying, selling, shutting down, moving out, moving in and opening a new shop has negligible (low) cost. Store owners can invest surplus funds in alternative investments that also earn the 10% pa market return.

Which retail business person will have the LOWEST beta of equity (or net wealth)?