Fight Finance

Assume that the Gordon Growth Model (same as the dividend discount model or perpetuity with growth formula) is an appropriate method to value real estate.

An old rule of thumb in the real estate industry is that properties should yield a 5% pa rental return. Some investors also regard property to be as risky as the stock market, therefore property is thought to have a required total return of 9% pa which is the average total return on the stock market including dividends.

Assume that all returns are effective annual rates and they are nominal (not reduced by inflation). Inflation is expected to be 2% pa.

You're considering purchasing an investment property which has a rental yield of 5% pa and you expect it to have the same risk as the stock market. Select the most correct statement about this property.

A company announces that it will pay a dividend, as the market expected. The company's shares trade on the stock exchange which is open from 10am in the morning to 4pm in the afternoon each weekday. When would the share price be expected to fall by the amount of the dividend? Ignore taxes.

The share price is expected to fall during the:

Your firm's research scientists can begin an exciting new project at a cost of $10m now, after which there’s a:

• 70% chance that cash flows will be $1m per year forever, starting in 5 years (t=5). This is the A state of the world.
• 20% chance that cash flows will be $3m per year forever, starting in 5 years (t=5). This is the B state of the world.
• 10% chance of a major break through in which case the cash flows will be $20m per year forever starting in 5 years (t=5), or instead, the project can be expanded by investing another $10m (at t=5) which is expected to give cash flows of $60m per year forever, starting at year 9 (t=9). Note that the perpetual cash flows are either the $20m from year 4 onwards, or the $60m from year 9 onwards after the additional $10m year 5 investment, but not both. This is the C state of the world.

The firm's cost of capital is 10% pa.

What's the present value (at t=0) of the option to expand in year 5?

The first payment of a constant perpetual annual cash flow is received at time 5. Let this cash flow be ##C_5## and the required return be ##r##.

So there will be equal annual cash flows at time 5, 6, 7 and so on forever, and all of the cash flows will be equal so ##C_5 = C_6 = C_7 = ...##

When the perpetuity formula is used to value this stream of cash flows, it will give a value (V) at time:

In the 'Austin Powers' series of movies, the character Dr. Evil threatens to destroy the world unless the United Nations pays him a ransom (video 1, video 2). Dr. Evil makes the threat on two separate occasions:

• In 1969 he demands a ransom of $1 million (=10^6), and again;
• In 1997 he demands a ransom of $100 billion (=10^11).

If Dr. Evil's demands are equivalent in real terms, in other words $1 million will buy the same basket of goods in 1969 as $100 billion would in 1997, what was the implied inflation rate over the 28 years from 1969 to 1997?

The answer choices below are given as effective annual rates:

An investor owns an empty block of land that has local government approval to be developed into a petrol station, car wash or car park. The council will only allow a single development so the projects are mutually exclusive.

All of the development projects have the same risk and the required return of each is 10% pa. Each project has an immediate cost and once construction is finished in one year the land and development will be sold. The table below shows the estimated costs payable now, expected sale prices in one year and the internal rates of returns (IRR's).

Which project should the investor accept?

An equity index stands at 100 points and the one year equity futures price is 102.

The equity index is expected to have a dividend yield of 4% pa. Assume that investors are risk-neutral so their total required return on the shares is the same as the risk free Treasury bond yield which is 10% pa. Both are given as discrete effective annual rates.

Assuming that the equity index is fairly priced, an arbitrageur would recognise that the equity futures are:

Mr Blue, Miss Red and Mrs Green are people with different utility functions.

Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the Single Index Model (SIM) are single factor models whose only risk factor is the market portfolio’s return. Say a Taxi company and an Umbrella company are influenced by two factors, the market portfolio return and rainfall. When it rains, both the Taxi and Umbrella companies’ stock prices do well. When there’s no rain, both do poorly. Assume that rainfall risk is a systematic risk that cannot be diversified and that rainfall has zero correlation with the market portfolio’s returns.

Which of the following statements about these two stocks is NOT correct?

The CAPM and SIM: