Fight Finance

Question 282  expected and historical returns, income and capital returns

You're the boss of an investment bank's equities research team. Your five analysts are each trying to find the expected total return over the next year of shares in a mining company. The mining firm:

• Is regarded as a mature company since it's quite stable in size and was floated around 30 years ago. It is not a high-growth company;
• Share price is very sensitive to changes in the price of the market portfolio, economic growth, the exchange rate and commodities prices. Due to this, its standard deviation of total returns is much higher than that of the market index;
• Experienced tough times in the last 10 years due to unexpected falls in commodity prices.
• Shares are traded in an active liquid market.

Your team of analysts present their findings, and everyone has different views. While there's no definitive true answer, whose calculation of the expected total return is the most plausible? Assume that:

• The analysts' source data is correct and true, but their inferences might be wrong;
• All returns and yields are given as effective annual nominal rates.

(a) Alice says 5% pa since she calculated that this was the average total yield on government bonds over the last 10 years. She says that this is also the expected total yield implied by current prices on one year government bonds.

(b) Bob says 4% pa since he calculated that this was the average total return on the mining stock over the last 10 years.

(c) Cate says 3% pa since she calculated that this was the average growth rate of the share price over the last 10 years.

(d) Dave says 6% pa since he calculated that this was the average growth rate of the share market price index (not the accumulation index) over the last 10 years.

(e) Eve says 15% pa since she calculated that this was the discount rate implied by the dividend discount model using the current share price, forecast dividend in one year and a 3% growth rate in dividends thereafter, which is the expected long term inflation rate.

Question 301  leverage, capital structure, real estate

Your friend just bought a house for $1,000,000. He financed it using a $900,000 mortgage loan and a deposit of $100,000.

In the context of residential housing and mortgages, the 'equity' or 'net wealth' tied up in a house is the value of the house less the value of the mortgage loan. Assuming that your friend's only asset is his house, his net wealth is $100,000.

If house prices suddenly fall by 15%, what would be your friend's percentage change in net wealth?

Assume that:

• No income (rent) was received from the house during the short time over which house prices fell.
• Your friend will not declare bankruptcy, he will always pay off his debts.

(a) -1,000%

(b) -150%

(c) -100%

(d) -15%

(e) -10%

Question 320  foreign exchange rate, monetary policy, American and European terms

Investors expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to decrease the overnight cash rate at their next meeting.

Then unexpectedly, the RBA announce that they will keep the policy rate unchanged.

What do you expect to happen to Australia's exchange rate in the short term? The Australian dollar is likely to:

(a) Appreciate against the USD, so the 'European terms' quote of the AUD (AUD per USD) will increase.

(b) Depreciate against the USD, so the 'European terms' quote of the AUD (AUD per USD) will decrease.

(c) Appreciate against the USD, so the 'European terms' quote of the AUD (AUD per USD) will decrease.

(d) Depreciate against the USD, so the 'European terms' quote of the AUD (AUD per USD) will increase.

(e) Be unaffected by the change in the policy rate, so the exchange rate will remain the same.

Question 346  NPV, annuity due

Your poor friend asks to borrow some money from you. He would like $1,000 now (t=0) and every year for the next 5 years, so there will be 6 payments of $1,000 from t=0 to t=5 inclusive. In return he will pay you $10,000 in seven years from now (t=7).

What is the net present value (NPV) of lending to your friend?

Assume that your friend will definitely pay you back so the loan is risk-free, and that the yield on risk-free government debt is 10% pa, given as an effective annual rate.

(a) $1,340.7944

(b) $1,172.2533

(c) $776.3205

(d) $705.7459

(e) $340.7944

Question 407  income and capital returns, inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows

A stock has a real expected total return of 7% pa and a real expected capital return of 2% pa.

Inflation is expected to be 2% pa. All rates are given as effective annual rates.

What is the nominal expected total return, capital return and dividend yield? The answers below are given in the same order.

(a) 11.100%, 4.000%, 7.100%.

(b) 11.140%, 4.040%, 7.100%.

(c) 4.902%, 0.000%, 4.902%.

(d) 9.140%, 4.040%, 5.100%.

(e) 9.140%, 4.040%, 7.100%.

Question 429  takeover

In a takeover deal where the offer is 100% scrip (shares), the merged firm's number of shares will be equal to the sum of the acquirer and target firms' original number of shares. or ?

Question 490  expected and historical returns, accounting ratio

Which of the following is NOT a synonym of 'required return'?

(a) total required yield

(b) cost of capital

(c) discount rate

(d) opportunity cost of capital

(e) accounting rate of return

Question 585  option

A man just sold a call option to his counterparty, a lady. The man has just now:

(a) Bought the right to buy the underlying asset from her at maturity if he wants.

(b) Bought the right to sell the underlying asset to her at maturity if he wants.

(c) Sold the right that allows her to buy the underlying asset from him at maturity if she wants.

(d) Sold the right that allows her to sell the underlying asset to him at maturity if she wants.

(e) Sold a contract that obliges him to buy the underlying asset from her at maturity if she wants.

Question 617  systematic and idiosyncratic risk, risk, CAPM

A stock's required total return will increase when its:

(a) Systematic risk increases.

(b) Idiosyncratic risk increases.

(c) Total risk increases.

(d) Systematic risk decreases.

(e) Idiosyncratic risk decreases.

Question 653  future, continuously compounding rate

An equity index is currently at 4,800 points. The 1.5 year futures price is 5,100 points and the total required return is 6% pa with continuous compounding. Each index point is worth $25.

What is the implied dividend yield as a continuously compounded rate per annum?

(a) -0.0625% pa

(b) 1.9584% pa

(c) 3.0937% pa

(d) 4.0416% pa

(e) 6.0625% pa