# Fight Finance

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The current gold price is $700, gold storage costs are 2% pa and the risk free rate is 10% pa, both with continuous compounding. What should be the 3 year gold futures price? A 2-year futures contract on a stock paying a continuous dividend yield of 3% pa was bought when the underlying stock price was$10 and the risk free rate was 10% per annum with continuous compounding. Assume that investors are risk-neutral, so the stock's total required return is the risk free rate.

Find the forward price $(F_2)$ and value of the contract $(V_0)$ initially. Also find the value of the contract in 6 months $(V_{0.5})$ if the stock price rose to $12. An equity index is currently at 5,000 points. The 2 year futures price is 5,400 points and the total required return is 8% pa with continuous compounding. Each index point is worth$25.

What is the implied continuous dividend yield as a continuously compounded rate per annum?

A stock is expected to pay a dividend of $5 per share in 1 month and$5 again in 7 months.

The stock price is $100, and the risk-free rate of interest is 10% per annum with continuous compounding. The yield curve is flat. Assume that investors are risk-neutral. An investor has just taken a short position in a one year forward contract on the stock. Find the forward price $(F_1)$ and value of the contract $(V_0)$ initially. Also find the value of the short futures contract in 6 months $(V_\text{0.5, SF})$ if the stock price fell to$90.

A $100 stock has a continuously compounded expected total return of 10% pa. Its dividend yield is 2% pa with continuous compounding. What do you expect its price to be in one year? A$100 stock has a continuously compounded expected total return of 10% pa. Its dividend yield is 2% pa with continuous compounding. What do you expect its price to be in 2.5 years?

An equity index is currently at 5,200 points. The 6 month futures price is 5,300 points and the total required return is 6% pa with continuous compounding. Each index point is worth $25. What is the implied dividend yield as a continuously compounded rate per annum? An equity index is currently at 4,800 points. The 1.5 year futures price is 5,100 points and the total required return is 6% pa with continuous compounding. Each index point is worth$25.

What is the implied dividend yield as a continuously compounded rate per annum?

A bank quotes an interest rate of 6% pa with quarterly compounding. Note that another way of stating this rate is that it is an annual percentage rate (APR) compounding discretely every 3 months.

Which of the following statements about this rate is NOT correct? All percentages are given to 6 decimal places. The equivalent:

Convert a 10% effective annual rate $(r_\text{eff annual})$ into a continuously compounded annual rate $(r_\text{cc annual})$. The equivalent continuously compounded annual rate is:

Convert a 10% continuously compounded annual rate $(r_\text{cc annual})$ into an effective annual rate $(r_\text{eff annual})$. The equivalent effective annual rate is:

Which of the following interest rate quotes is NOT equivalent to a 10% effective annual rate of return? Assume that each year has 12 months, each month has 30 days, each day has 24 hours, each hour has 60 minutes and each minute has 60 seconds. APR stands for Annualised Percentage Rate.

A continuously compounded monthly return of 1% $(r_\text{cc monthly})$ is equivalent to a continuously compounded annual return $(r_\text{cc annual})$ of:

A continuously compounded semi-annual return of 5% $(r_\text{cc 6mth})$ is equivalent to a continuously compounded annual return $(r_\text{cc annual})$ of:

A stock has an arithmetic average continuously compounded return (AALGDR) of 10% pa, a standard deviation of continuously compounded returns (SDLGDR) of 80% pa and current stock price of $1. Assume that stock prices are log-normally distributed. In one year, what do you expect the mean and median prices to be? The answer options are given in the same order. A stock has an arithmetic average continuously compounded return (AALGDR) of 10% pa, a standard deviation of continuously compounded returns (SDLGDR) of 80% pa and current stock price of$1. Assume that stock prices are log-normally distributed.

In 5 years, what do you expect the mean and median prices to be? The answer options are given in the same order.

Fred owns some Commonwealth Bank (CBA) shares. He has calculated CBA’s monthly returns for each month in the past 20 years using this formula:

$$r_\text{t monthly}=\ln⁡ \left( \dfrac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} \right)$$

He then took the arithmetic average and found it to be 1% per month using this formula:

$$\bar{r}_\text{monthly}= \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( r_\text{t monthly} \right)} }{T} =0.01=1\% \text{ per month}$$

He also found the standard deviation of these monthly returns which was 5% per month:

$$\sigma_\text{monthly} = \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( \left( r_\text{t monthly} - \bar{r}_\text{monthly} \right)^2 \right)} }{T} =0.05=5\%\text{ per month}$$

Which of the below statements about Fred’s CBA shares is NOT correct? Assume that the past historical average return is the true population average of future expected returns.

Here is a table of stock prices and returns. Which of the statements below the table is NOT correct?

 Price and Return Population Statistics Time Prices LGDR GDR NDR 0 100 1 50 -0.6931 0.5 -0.5 2 100 0.6931 2 1 Arithmetic average 0 1.25 0.25 Arithmetic standard deviation 0.9802 1.0607 1.0607

Here is a table of stock prices and returns. Which of the statements below the table is NOT correct?

 Price and Return Population Statistics Time Prices LGDR GDR NDR 0 100 1 99 -0.010050 0.990000 -0.010000 2 180.40 0.600057 1.822222 0.822222 3 112.73 0.470181 0.624889 0.375111 Arithmetic average 0.0399 1.1457 0.1457 Arithmetic standard deviation 0.4384 0.5011 0.5011

Fred owns some BHP shares. He has calculated BHP’s monthly returns for each month in the past 30 years using this formula:

$$r_\text{t monthly}=\ln⁡ \left( \dfrac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} \right)$$

He then took the arithmetic average and found it to be 0.8% per month using this formula:

$$\bar{r}_\text{monthly}= \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( r_\text{t monthly} \right)} }{T} =0.008=0.8\% \text{ per month}$$

He also found the standard deviation of these monthly returns which was 15% per month:

$$\sigma_\text{monthly} = \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( \left( r_\text{t monthly} - \bar{r}_\text{monthly} \right)^2 \right)} }{T} =0.15=15\%\text{ per month}$$

Assume that the past historical average return is the true population average of future expected returns and the stock's returns calculated above $(r_\text{t monthly})$ are normally distributed. Which of the below statements about Fred’s BHP shares is NOT correct?

A risk manager has identified that their hedge fund’s continuously compounded portfolio returns are normally distributed with a mean of 10% pa and a standard deviation of 30% pa. The hedge fund’s portfolio is currently valued at $100 million. Assume that there is no estimation error in these figures and that the normal cumulative density function at 1.644853627 is 95%. Which of the following statements is NOT correct? All answers are rounded to the nearest dollar. A risk manager has identified that their pension fund’s continuously compounded portfolio returns are normally distributed with a mean of 5% pa and a standard deviation of 20% pa. The fund’s portfolio is currently valued at$1 million. Assume that there is no estimation error in the above figures. To simplify your calculations, all answers below use 2.33 as an approximation for the normal inverse cumulative density function at 99%. All answers are rounded to the nearest dollar. Which of the following statements is NOT correct?

A risk manager has identified that their investment fund’s continuously compounded portfolio returns are normally distributed with a mean of 10% pa and a standard deviation of 40% pa. The fund’s portfolio is currently valued at $1 million. Assume that there is no estimation error in the above figures. To simplify your calculations, all answers below use 2.33 as an approximation for the normal inverse cumulative density function at 99%. All answers are rounded to the nearest dollar. Assume one month is 1/12 of a year. Which of the following statements is NOT correct? For an asset's price to double from say$1 to $2 in one year, what must its continuously compounded return $(r_{CC})$ be? If the price now is $P_0$ and the price in one year is $P_1$ then the continuously compounded return over the next year is: $$r_\text{CC annual} = \ln{\left[ \dfrac{P_1}{P_0} \right]} = \text{LGDR}_\text{annual}$$ The arithmetic average and standard deviation of returns on the ASX200 accumulation index over the 24 years from 31 Dec 1992 to 31 Dec 2016 were calculated as follows: $$\bar{r}_\text{yearly} = \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1992}^{24}{\left( \ln⁡ \left( \dfrac{P_{t+1}}{P_t} \right) \right)} }{T} = \text{AALGDR} =0.0949=9.49\% \text{ pa}$$ $$\sigma_\text{yearly} = \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1992}^{24}{\left( \left( \ln⁡ \left( \dfrac{P_{t+1}}{P_t} \right) - \bar{r}_\text{yearly} \right)^2 \right)} }{T} = \text{SDLGDR} = 0.1692=16.92\text{ pp pa}$$ Assume that the log gross discrete returns are normally distributed and that the above estimates are true population statistics, not sample statistics, so there is no standard error in the sample mean or standard deviation estimates. Also assume that the standardised normal Z-statistic corresponding to a one-tail probability of 2.5% is exactly -1.96. Which of the following statements is NOT correct? If you invested$1m today in the ASX200, then over the next 4 years:

The arithmetic average continuously compounded or log gross discrete return (AALGDR) on the ASX200 accumulation index over the 24 years from 31 Dec 1992 to 31 Dec 2016 is 9.49% pa.

The arithmetic standard deviation (SDLGDR) is 16.92 percentage points pa.

Assume that the log gross discrete returns are normally distributed and that the above estimates are true population statistics, not sample statistics, so there is no standard error in the sample mean or standard deviation estimates. Also assume that the standardised normal Z-statistic corresponding to a one-tail probability of 2.5% is exactly -1.96.

If you had a $1 million fund that replicated the ASX200 accumulation index, in how many years would the median dollar value of your fund first be expected to lie outside the 95% confidence interval forecast? The arithmetic average continuously compounded or log gross discrete return (AALGDR) on the ASX200 accumulation index over the 24 years from 31 Dec 1992 to 31 Dec 2016 is 9.49% pa. The arithmetic standard deviation (SDLGDR) is 16.92 percentage points pa. Assume that the log gross discrete returns are normally distributed and that the above estimates are true population statistics, not sample statistics, so there is no standard error in the sample mean or standard deviation estimates. Also assume that the standardised normal Z-statistic corresponding to a one-tail probability of 2.5% is exactly -1.96. If you had a$1 million fund that replicated the ASX200 accumulation index, in how many years would the mean dollar value of your fund first be expected to lie outside the 95% confidence interval forecast?

The arithmetic average continuously compounded or log gross discrete return (AALGDR) on the ASX200 accumulation index over the 24 years from 31 Dec 1992 to 31 Dec 2016 is 9.49% pa.

The arithmetic standard deviation (SDLGDR) is 16.92 percentage points pa.

Assume that the log gross discrete returns are normally distributed and that the above estimates are true population statistics, not sample statistics, so there is no standard error in the sample mean or standard deviation estimates. Also assume that the standardised normal Z-statistic corresponding to a one-tail probability of 2.5% is exactly -1.96.

If you had a \$1 million fund that replicated the ASX200 accumulation index, in how many years would the mode dollar value of your fund first be expected to lie outside the 95% confidence interval forecast?

Note that the mode of a log-normally distributed future price is: $P_{T \text{ mode}} = P_0.e^{(\text{AALGDR} - \text{SDLGDR}^2 ).T}$

The arithmetic average continuously compounded or log gross discrete return (AALGDR) on the ASX200 accumulation index over the 24 years from 31 Dec 1992 to 31 Dec 2016 is 9.49% pa.

The arithmetic standard deviation (SDLGDR) is 16.92 percentage points pa.

Assume that the data are sample statistics, not population statistics. Assume that the log gross discrete returns are normally distributed.

What is the standard error of your estimate of the sample ASX200 accumulation index arithmetic average log gross discrete return (AALGDR) over the 24 years from 1992 to 2016?