A stock has a beta of **1.5**. The market's expected total return is **10**% pa and the risk free rate is **5**% pa, both given as effective annual rates.

Over the last year, bad economic news was released showing a higher chance of recession. Over this time the share market **fell** by **1**%. So ##r_{m} = (P_{0} - P_{-1})/P_{-1} = -0.01##, where the current time is zero and one year ago is time -1. The risk free rate was unchanged.

What do you think was the stock's historical return over the **last year**, given as an effective annual rate?